Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If it's a mix at the start, which I expect, followed by a 7-10 hour period of moderate to heavy wet snow then over, 3-6" would seem about right, yes. But NAM has other ideas with that block. WX/PT Another interesting difference. on NAM, the storm leaves and takes all the cold air with it. On GFS, there is some new coldish air filtering down behind it. Actually, on NAM, the precip could not only start as rain but also end as rain/drizzle with a lot of snow in between. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 rgem looks pretty amped up and tucked to the coastline, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Craig Allen just made a great post on FB, talking about how we simply don't know yet, exactly what's going to happen, as the uncertainty associated with the models is simply too great. But that we do know we're going to have a serious storm, with quite a bit of interesting and possibly dangerous weather, and that we all need to pay attention to how this all evolves. http://www.facebook.com/bobweatherman.burger#!/pages/Craig-Allen-On-Air-Inc/230609267719 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 rgem looks pretty amped up and tucked to the coastline, again. Sorry Unless it is real warm that don't look like a 3-6 type storm to me just looking at that low and the Comma head somebody is gonna get Crushed with Heavy snow. Not saying this is the final verdict just going by this models depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 unfortunately, it looks like the rgem at h5 wants to drift it E the past 2/3 frames so really not sure where future frames will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Craig Allen just made a great post on FB, talking about how we simply don't know yet, exactly what's going to happen, as the uncertainty associated with the models is simply too great. But that we do know we're going to have a serious storm, with quite a bit of interesting and possibly dangerous weather, and that we all need to pay attention to how this all evolves. http://www.facebook.com/bobweatherman.burger#!/pages/Craig-Allen-On-Air-Inc/230609267719 Seriously, excellent post by Craig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No offense but old schoolers that are saying its too early are just not educated in the art of ensemble forecasting and are trying to save their arse. Tonights run is nearly identical to feb situation. Nam went to wild and gfs backed off. Ensembles have the answer Cannot call what the GFS did tonight as backing off. Still gives 1" of qpf for many (it's mainly snow too because any warm GFS thermals are unreliable in these types of storms) and has beyond absurd convective feedback issues that makes the end result indeterminable. I agree though ensembles will be of solid assistance tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 ukmet moved north from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Personal arguing and bickering, unless it's prevalent to sound, meteorological discussion, will not be tolerated, and the posts will either be moved to the banter thread or deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 ukmet moved north from 12z Does it spread the precip field spread further north or just pass ENE in later frames ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Personal arguing and bickering, unless it's prevalent to sound, meteorological discussion, will not be tolerated, and the posts will either be moved to the banter thread or deleted. I can understand why....and agree its ridiculous. Sorry for arguing back....Though i didnt really see a reason to go attacking me...it's my own fault as much as anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Does it spread the precip field spread further north or just pass ENE in later frames ? i wont see the full 6 hour ukmet frames until 12-ish nogaps https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dynamic/NVG/2013030500/nvg10.prp.054.namer.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 fwiw, NAVGEM still shows a hit like the previous 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 rgem total qpf thru 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 rgem total qpf thru 48 Wow that really nails DC....I hope they get a foot or so...it's been a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow that really nails DC....I hope they get a foot or so...it's been a while Looking at the important levels of the RGEM, if you extrapolate beyond 48, it appears the RGEM would head the way of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 rgem total qpf thru 48 unfortunately its warm up to that point so alot of that from from I95 SE is not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If you extrapolate beyond 48, it appears the RGEM would head the way of the NAM. Good sign, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 To make things worst.. I really think the EURO will not come north anymore.. but if we think about it, it was the first model that showed this storm hitting NYC hard last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 A smidge too warm for snow, but 40 knot winds about on the deck Eastern Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 ukmet http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 To make things worst.. I really think the EURO will not come north anymore.. but if we think about it, it was the first model that showed this storm hitting NYC hard last week. Lol, what makes you think that? Even the always suppressed and east UKIE is now heading northwestward noticeably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Don't recall seeing anyone posting a 0Z GFS snowfall map - anyone? Just curious how it compares to the NAM and the upcoming Euro, thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Lol, what makes you think that? Even the always suppressed UKIE is now heading northward noticeably. Well I'm trying to use some strategy here. everytime I say something, the EURO does the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 ukmet http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif Correct for it's idiotic east bias and you get in line with all of the other guidance save for the Euro (hopefully that changes in an hour or so lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well I'm trying to use some strategy here. everytime I say something, the EURO does the opposite. Lol, go for it, whatever mojo that you can conjure works, I am all for, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Don't recall seeing anyone posting a 0Z GFS snowfall map - anyone? Just curious how it compares to the NAM and the upcoming Euro, thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looking at the important levels of the RGEM, if you extrapolate beyond 48, it appears the RGEM would head the way of the NAM. not sure but suspect it would be se of the nam perhaps even the gfs. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS, solid: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS is nice - does the low do a loop between 60 and 72 or is there something wrong with the site im looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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