MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12 inches for NYC on the stormvista maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The issue seems to be that the stall/capture take place further south/west this run, which also results in more warm air being wrapped around into eastern areas. I don't think this really affects anyone around NYC, but eastern LI and eastern New England would get jipped this run. I forgot which storm it was in 2009-2010, but SNE got sorta screwed with the best dynamics as the low occluded too far south of them...could be a similar scenario here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12 inches for NYC on the stormvista maps Cut that in half and I think that's a good bet for NYC...well see what happens though still a lot of time before Wednesday aftn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12 inches for NYC on the stormvista maps Please post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 4km NAM looks insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looking at the NAM precip type maps, the strong dynamics look to really get going across much of the NYC and Long Island areas in the meat of that band and fend off the rain for most of the heaviest activity west of about the William Floyd Parkway. Dynamics overall look considerably weaker north of here into SNE, so it enables them to warm up faster. The earlier cutting off could be an issue for eastern areas, because cutting off also cuts off the cold air supply. Once you get east out past Upton, amounts are cut considerably due to rain/mix it looks like. West of there looks like mostly snow for the heaviest part of all of it, and then it gradually goes to light slop during Thursday. But we have to watch to see if this further south cut-off trend continues-it could ultimately take us out of the best snow and dynamics if it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I forgot which storm it was in 2009-2010, but SNE got sorta screwed with the best dynamics as the low occluded too far south of them...could be a similar scenario here? That was 2/10/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Clown map alert http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_0z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That was 2/10/10. Thanks. I think it might be a good analog if the trends hold...H5 low is in a similar location http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/10-Feb-10-500MillibarMaps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looking at the NAM precip type maps, the strong dynamics look to really get going across much of the NYC and Long Island areas in the meat of that band and fend off the rain for most of the heaviest activity west of about the William Floyd Parkway. Dynamics overall look considerably weaker north of here into SNE, so it enables them to warm up faster. The earlier cutting off could be an issue for eastern areas, because cutting off also cuts off the cold air supply. Once you get east out past Upton, amounts are cut considerably due to rain/mix it looks like. West of there looks like mostly snow for the heaviest part of all of it, and then it gradually goes to light slop during Thursday. But we have to watch to see if this further south cut-off trend continues-it could ultimately take us out of the best snow and dynamics if it continues. The NAM might be cutting this off too soon as it likes to bomb lows as fast as possible. I think this run was a bit too far tucked in and a bit too warm given the track and temperature profiles on the ECM/ECM ENS. And who thinks NYC is only getting 6"? Kaner? That's not a bad forecast but I wouldn't say 12" is unrealistic, either. The track of the closed H5 low is perfect for NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Clown map alert http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_0z/snow60.gif Do you think that's too aggressive? It looks like it shows 8-12" for NYC and 12-16" for North Shore of LI and north-central NJ. Sure, that's an aggressive forecast, but with a 988mb low and 3 closed contours to the SE of us, why not shoot for the moon? I've been bullish on this storm all along, and I'm glad I stuck with it. Looks like a doozy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The NAM might be cutting this off too soon as it likes to bomb lows as fast as possible. I think this run was a bit too far tucked in and a bit too warm given the track and temperature profiles on the ECM/ECM ENS. And who thinks NYC is only getting 6"? Kaner? That's not a bad forecast but I wouldn't say 12" is unrealistic, either. The track of the closed H5 low is perfect for NYC: trackclosedlow.gif Ya I think 6 is a good bet where we stand now. If this trends more dynamic and colder then were talking a whole other beast. Lets temper out expectations for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well I guess we can say Nam held Serve now onto the GFS. Even if GFS looks good I doubt anyone wants to go all in until Euro shows something Similar.. Next few hours should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREF mean snowfall totals using 10:1 ratio and all members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREF mean snowfall totals using 10:1 ratio and all members. srefmeansnow.png Thats a nice product actually, way better than the probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 seriously, i think when all is said and done, long island will be mostly snow during the heaviest and modrate snow, maybe mixing around 5 miles west of twin forks, nam definely overdid the warmth and the low will not or should not be that hugged into the coast, if it is a bit east temps will be fine. gotta take into account evaportational cooling, the fact its at night and the fact that im not buying the nams temp profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 seriously, i think when all is said and done, long island will be mostly snow during the heaviest and modrate snow, maybe mixing around 5 miles west of twin forks, nam definely overdid the warmth and the low will not or should not be that hugged into the coast, if it is a bit east temps will be fine. gotta take into account evaportational cooling, the fact its at night and the fact that im not buying the nams temp profiles. I think Nassau and western Suffolk will have enough of a "land fetch" (yay terrible terminology) to shield off the warmth from the ripping easterly LLJ. Central Suffolk and eastward is a different story, though. As I've said before, I'm not concerned about the BL, except during the onset. The BL will respond with the heavy precipitation, and that we're having our heaviest precipitation at night. But I could definitely see the LLJ warming some areas up. Hopefully everyone will thump nicely before that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 4km NAM is still going hard at 60 hours. Impressive to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think Nassau and western Suffolk will have enough of a "land fetch" (yay terrible terminology) to shield off the warmth from the ripping easterly LLJ. Central Suffolk and eastward is a different story, though. As I've said before, I'm not concerned about the BL, except during the onset. The BL will respond with the heavy precipitation, and that we're having our heaviest precipitation at night. But I could definitely see the LLJ warming some areas up. Hopefully everyone will thump nicely before that happens. I'm on Nassau Suffolk border, I think I will be ok, Long Island sees some insane qpf though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 seriously, i think when all is said and done, long island will be mostly snow during the heaviest and modrate snow, maybe mixing around 5 miles west of twin forks, nam definely overdid the warmth and the low will not or should not be that hugged into the coast, if it is a bit east temps will be fine. gotta take into account evaportational cooling, the fact its at night and the fact that im not buying the nams temp profiles. Verbatim I agree. The problem is getting that solution to occur. I cant go for it until after tonight's euro. If Euro comes on board its time for the facebook posts my friends love to hate!!! I already put out a warning for big waves but im not sold on snow here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think Nassau and western Suffolk will have enough of a "land fetch" (yay terrible terminology) to shield off the warmth from the ripping easterly LLJ. Central Suffolk and eastward is a different story, though. As I've said before, I'm not concerned about the BL, except during the onset. The BL will respond with the heavy precipitation, and that we're having our heaviest precipitation at night. But I could definitely see the LLJ warming some areas up. Hopefully everyone will thump nicely before that happens. I think the BIG question as far as snow amounts around here will be whether or not the storm moves away and the snow ends Thursday morning, as some of the guidance has indicated, or the low stalls over the BM and and precipitation expands and intensifies, or maintains intensity for Thursday and into Thursday night, as other guidance indicates. Which idea is correct is probably an inch difference in final QPF and a 6-10" difference in heavy wet snow amounts when all is said and done. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS looks even more amped out to 27 versus the 12z. Going to be another nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think the BIG question as far as snow amounts around here will be whether or not the storm moves away and the snow ends Thursday morning, as some of the guidance has indicated, or the low stalls over the BM and and precipitation expands and intensifies, or maintains intensity for Thursday and into Thursday night, as other guidance indicates. Which idea is correct is probably an inch difference in final QPF and a 6-10" difference in heavy wet snow amounts when all is said and done. WX/PT totally agree. with such wet snowfall, it'll be important to get the max qpf. i think 2/26/10 stalled. I can remember snowing on a southwest wind because the cyclone wrapped into itself at one point as it was ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS has more northern stream energy so far through 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ya I think 6 is a good bet where we stand now. If this trends more dynamic and colder then were talking a whole other beast. Lets temper out expectations for now That's pretty reasonable...I could see Westchester doing a lot better because they might start off as snow during the day Wednesday while parts of NYC mix, and then stay snow longer if the low wraps up too much when it occludes and brings in warm air. I could see 12-18" for Dobbs Ferry if everything goes well, although that's asking a lot. If I had to make a forecast right now it'd be: NYC: 4-8" (lowest amounts in eastern Queens) Westchester, Rockland, NNJ, North Shore LI: 8-12" Eastern LI and central NJ: 3-6" Eastern areas may see more QPF, but may also waste more, so it could be a wash if they get the really big precip totals. This happened in the 2/8 blizzard: LI and CT had some sleet mix in, and rainfall during the day, but they ended up with the jackpot totals because the huge liquid/QPF made up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS looks unlikely to be as amped as the 18z run...but I don't think that will surprise anybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ends up a hair southeast of the 18z run as expected from the early panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like it's a decent tick south on the GFS through 45. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Much more ragged with the QPF than 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 0.75-1.00" from EWR eastward through 57 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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