dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Anyone willing to spit out potential numbers yet for NYC/LI and NE NJ or too soon? It cant match 2/8 in terms of what it did to eastern LI and CT, can it? At 200 hours out I called for 12-18 inches in NYC metro. I like this pattern, I like this storm's evolution and I still at this stage like my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 As i noted earlier...tight western fringe cutoff = pa gnashing teeth. Bos goes to rain. Li mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The precip shield looks a good deal different than the 18z with heavier precip being portrayed in New York State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 seems like the surface doesnt correspond with h5 at 45-48hr but then it catches up at 51hr. still, good hit. Well the Nam is known to do strange things, perhaps it will correct things by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 wow, talked about stalling....it cant get more stalled than this. Very bad scenario for coastal flooding and erosion if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 R/S line right down C LI at hr 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 NYC well over 1.25" liquid and still getting hammered at 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 VA gets annihilated, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hr 60 everyone getting hammered, especially from the city on eastward, but all of NNJ is into the heavy snow as well. She is stalled. This run is going to be epic in terms of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 1.25+ from mmu-east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Gets a little toasty for LI and perhaps southeast Queens and Brooklyn, but overall a very nice hit. My home in Westchester should get smashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Very, very impressive how this low placement has the potential to give NYC a significant snow storm. Just goes to show the kind of situation we're in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NYC 1.5" qpf down and still in the CCb, Long Island rain/mix issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Quite a torchy run though for SNE and eastern LI. Hopefully that aspect of it is overdone. Eastern MA and RI look like almost all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well the Nam is known to do strange things, perhaps it will correct things by tomorrow. i dont think its anything though...could just be my untrained eyes...at any rate, what it does after 48hrs is sick. huge run for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 850s cut through central LI a little to close to comfort. - then we get torched at 63, It also co-insides with daylight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 1.5+ at hr 60. 850's crashing west. Looks like we end with some taint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Quite a torchy run though for SNE and eastern LI. Hopefully that aspect of it is overdone. Eastern MA and RI look like almost all rain. I'm much more worried about the strong LLJ tainting the 850mb level for coastal areas than I am about some silly BL issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hr 66 it's stalled out. Temps begin to warm and we end as a period of light to moderate rain/mixed precip. Still ongoing and flipping back over to snow through hr 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The issue seems to be that the stall/capture take place further south/west this run, which also results in more warm air being wrapped around into eastern areas. I don't think this really affects anyone around NYC, but eastern LI and eastern New England would get jipped this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It sits and spins so long it wraps warm air all the way around, and turns to rain at the end, but not before 1.5+ qpf falls as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Quite a torchy run though for SNE and eastern LI. Hopefully that aspect of it is overdone. Eastern MA and RI look like almost all rain. I believe it is overdone. That heavy precip should come down as snow. I think if this holds up, iffy but if it does the twin forks will have the most precip in the area and the least snow, central LI east will be snow, will be a sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 From 7pm-7am wed night it's a heavy snow bomb for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm much more worried about the strong LLJ tainting the 850mb level for coastal areas than I am about some silly BL issue. Yep-that firehose jet might bring in too much of a good thing. Lots of precip but also lots of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hi resolution NAM is pretty wild now as well through 51 hours...simulated radar looks terrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 hr 72 light to moderate precip still falling. The high res simulated radars are just epic. Mega banding over all of NNJ at hr 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Still snowing at 75... Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 W CT looks to be the jackpot on nam...although what have we learned with nam jackpots two days out? lol. as DXisnow said, the block linking up with the SE ridge really stalls this out. also what I noticed is there is another piece of the northern stream that hangs back over the great lakes in canada, during 54hr+, that doesnt drop in...but quite close in doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Look at those isobars too, B word may come into play. Epic CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 im not sure, once you are done with the best dynamics, that its still snow. so 72hr+ could be more wet than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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