CooL Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFS are super amped and wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFS are north and west, wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Mean QPF has 1.75" very close to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is a nice look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Damn the srefs are amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Jeez the 21z SREF look impressive. Mean is absolutely loaded with QPF. If the ECMWF folds tonight, then I think that the potential for at least a Winter Storm Watch looks likely for much of the NYC metro. Right now I don't want to completely lean on NCEP's modeling, so if the foreigners jump aboard tonight...I'll bite on something significant for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFS are super amped and wet Wow, they are steadly increasing every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Holy Cow the SREF's are wet. Had to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This ranks up with the Boxing Day Blizzard for me in terms of stark model disparity this close... SREFs are insane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Interesting note- the NAM has been trending a bit slower with the main energy. This allows the initial energy to dig a bit more and raise some heights a little higher.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toople Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 When is the storm supposed to start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This ranks up with the Boxing Day Blizzard for me in terms of stark model disparity this close... SREFs are insane... Here is a great page on that beautiful Blizzard http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/boxing-day-blizzard-greatest-hits/43571 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM a little less enthused with the interaction between the main vort and northwest atlantic ULL. This is important as it helps develop a last second height rise as the piece of the NW Atlantic ULL retrogrades over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Jeez the 21z SREF look impressive. Mean is absolutely loaded with QPF. If the ECMWF folds tonight, then I think that the potential for at least a Winter Storm Watch looks likely for much of the NYC metro. Right now I don't want to completely lean on NCEP's modeling, so if the foreigners jump aboard tonight...I'll bite on something significant for our area. Hopefully we continue with the amped trend tonight-we really need it to ensure a snowy event from the city on east. Inland looks considerably better unless we see a major trend back SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM a little less enthused with the interaction between the main vort and northwest atlantic ULL. This is important as it helps develop a last second height rise as the piece of the NW Atlantic ULL retrogrades over New England. However, sw is slightly more amped up relative to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Probabilities are way up on the SREF now for Northeast NJ http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREFPROBNE_21z/f12s60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That retrograding shortwave already has a closed contour at 27 hours...it was not closed at 33 hours on 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 21z SREF Some of these are borderline extreme hits for NYC About 8-9 members have 2-3" of QPF for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 H5 looks amazing on the nam. Going to be a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Everything a hair south of the 18z run through 36 hours. Might just be a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yep. Epic hit on nam from looks of most levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 500mb pattern looks pretty damn close to 18z, if not a hair improved with the heights ahead of the main SW (which looks incredibly powerful) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It is a bit slower by 2 to 3 hrs Everything a hair south of the 18z run through 36 hours. Might just be a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The vort is really amped up this run. Not that it's a big surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 500mb pattern looks pretty damn close to 18z, if not a hair improved with the heights ahead of the main SW (which looks incredibly powerful) USA_VRTHGTGRD_500mb_036.gif Wow-huge slam incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This run may be epic qpf wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hr 39 sub 996 low at the mouth of the Chesepeake Bay. The amount of vorticy is about as high as I can recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 These recent NAM runs remind me of the first big Euro run 7-8 days ago, even though I remember folks saying back then it was hard how to see the Euro getting to that big solution it popped back then. IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Still a tick farther south at 39 hours with the best lift compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hr 42 precip coming in. The surface is warm. The rest of the levels are below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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