leemhoc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Big CCB signal 850s are SE of everyone, looks like snow for most E LI could be more wet than white. But this is just a mean, individual members will be more telling. Great! I'm on Nassau Suffolk border and the precip looks great for us too. All of tv mets btw saying potential, lee Goldberg had 2-5 for most of area, less north and south. Hve a feeling those totals will be uped by tonight or tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z GEFS Not a miss in the lot ----- again. Can't remember that happening even once when the Euro was close to a whiff. Wild tracking on this one --- part of the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not a miss in the lot ----- again. Can't remember that happening even once when the Euro was close to a whiff. Wild tracking on this one --- part of the fun. Euro ensembles were significantly NW correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The hi resolution NAM also has significant snow amounts through 60 hr http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_18z/snow60.gif Funny how the hi res NAM never gets precip into Albany, NY. It treats the capital as though it were Reno, NV. It has done this for every major coastal storm this season... always way too aggressive with the upslope-downslope. I wonder why this affect is over-modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro ensembles were significantly NW correct? They were but the control was 'near' a whiff for our area. Astounding to see, in my opinion. If...and a BIG IF... this comes through as modeled on the GFS, it really, really changes the ball game of modeling IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro ensembles were significantly NW correct? Yes. Heard on a board that they got 0.75-1 inch of liquid into the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wrote this: http://www.nymetroweather.com/discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ggem ensemble is SE of gfs/nam. only 3/20 members show a glancing blow, rest are ots. 0z was similar. not sure how much stock they weigh though, just something to consider while ncep guidance is getting everyone amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wrote this: http://www.nymetroweather.com/discussion/ Really nice forecast like always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ggem ensemble is SE of gfs/nam. only 3/20 members show a glancing blow, rest are ots. 0z was similar. not sure how much stock they weigh though, just something to consider while ncep guidance is getting everyone amped up. They have been terrible for this storm throughout, no surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 They have been terrible for this storm throughout, no surprise. 0z and even yesterday 12z, to an extent, are quite similar, however. it falls in line, or a couple ticks SE, with the euro ensemble as well. looks like we have ncep + jma vs rest of world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Any 18z RGEM update please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Any 18z RGEM update please? Looks pretty wrapped up to me...and north of the 12z run. http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_18/P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks pretty wrapped up to me...and north of the 12z run. http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_18/P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif it does but hard to tell if it hooks closer at h5 in future frames. do pieces from ULL in the GL and ME dive back into the backside? http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=QQ500&map=na〈=fr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looking at the RGEM I wouldnt be worried about it missing us to our south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks pretty wrapped up to me...and north of the 12z run. http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_18/P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif Thanks. Pretty nice banana high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 They were but the control was 'near' a whiff for our area. Astounding to see, in my opinion. If...and a BIG IF... this comes through as modeled on the GFS, it really, really changes the ball game of modeling IMHO. The control run was significantly NW of it's 0z run which got 0.1" to TTN. Based off of the 6 hour increments, I would say this run gets close to 0.5" into TTN, so quite a bit further NW than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The "weenies" say that the ECM ENS are north of the Operational, because they are north of the Operational. Like I said, a person with access to them confirmed that the amount of precip into the city is 0.75-1.00 for this storm system, considerably wetter than the Operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wrote this: http://www.nymetroweather.com/discussion/ excellent write up, very explanative of your thoughts. I'm guessing the team is expecting some significant bl issues for LI and therefore not much in the way of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looking at the RGEM I wouldnt be worried about it missing us to our south.... Explain? I see the opposite. Looks NAMish at the same timestamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The control run was significantly NW of it's 0z run which got 0.1" to TTN. Based off of the 6 hour increments, I would say this run gets close to 0.5" into TTN, so quite a bit further NW than previous runs. it does.. .75 to toms river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Explain? I see the opposite. Looks NAMish at the same timestamp. To me it looks like the low is already 1/2 way up the Chesepeake Bay and amped with precip already north of the NJ/NY border...Id be more worried about it being too amped than out to sea.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The control run was significantly NW of it's 0z run which got 0.1" to TTN. Based off of the 6 hour increments, I would say this run gets close to 0.5" into TTN, so quite a bit further NW than previous runs. The OP and ensemble look close so I am not sure why there should be much of a difference between the two on this run. Maybe there are a few really amped members like some of the other guidance leading to the spread in precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 To me it looks like the low is already 1/2 way up the Chesepeake Bay and amped with precip already north of the NJ/NY border...Id be more worried about it being too amped than out to sea.... MISREAD you! I thought you said you WOULD be worried about missing to our South! You said "wouldn't"... Sorry --- long day --- we agree --- as does the NAM. Now, the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The "weenies" say that the ECM ENS are north of the Operational, because they are north of the Operational. Like I said, a person with access to them confirmed that the amount of precip into the city is 0.75-1.00 for this storm system, considerably wetter than the Operational. This has moved almost due east from Hatteras, and it keeps right on heading out.. No northward hook shown.. Hard to imagine how this throws back .75" qpf into NYC area.. Im not sayings its not possible, but I cant recall too many times when this track gets meaningful qpf up NY Metro way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just for sh*ts and giggles... 18z NAM KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This has moved almost due east from Hatteras, and it keeps right on heading out.. No northward hook shown.. Hard to imagine how this throws back .75" qpf into NYC area.. Im not sayings its not possible, but I cant recall too many times when this track gets meaningful qpf up NY Metro way. More energetic H5 Low=More widespread precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 More energetic H5 Low=More widespread precipitation. More energetic, and oriented favorably. But still, that is a relatively massive area for meaningful precip to cover, especially on the nw side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREF just came in with more precip than the previous run. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=21ℑ=sref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_066_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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