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Significant Ocean Storm March 5-7 2013 Discussion Part II


earthlight

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GFS verbatim is mostly rain for the island in sure... It does have a warm bias in the BL though which needs to be addressed, in addition when the CCB kicks in as long as the precip is heavy enough even LI should get into the action I'd assume...

I

That is one thing that needs to be watched. Dynamic cooling could take over and resolve the bl issues.

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The GFS doesn't have a warm bias, it has a cool bias, but from what I've seen from past storms this winter was that the GFS has a warm BL a lot of the time. Being west of the blue line will help, but doesn't mean you're 100% snow, it could rain if you're west of the blue line, it can snow if you're east of it.

Thanks. The low was too tucked into the coast there. A little east and it would have been Like the nam with temps and precip type

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It's been a mild winter and the SST's are a bit higher than normal, but the fact that it is Feb. and not Dec. is significant.

 

Go offshore on a fishing trip when it's 70F at the dock....get to the grounds offshore and it's 45F.

That is one thing that needs to be watched. Dynamic cooling could take over and resolve the bl issues.

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GFS verbatim is mostly rain for the island in sure... It does have a warm bias in the BL though which needs to be addressed, in addition when the CCB kicks in as long as the precip is heavy enough even LI should get into the action I'd assume...

I

GFS is usually too warm in these situations-when the Euro and NAM are both colder it's usually safe to go with them. It was too warm on 2/8 (had it almost all rain for a time) as well.

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Really? LI nothing? It actually gets the most precip in the area, but no snow I guess. I think that will change though. A cold trend is coming, and storms this year have been colder than modeled.

99.9% of the time LI jackpots with precip amounts... its the bl/surface temps that burn you guys most of the time..

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It's been a mild winter and the SST's are a bit higher than normal, but the fact that it is Feb. and not Dec. is significant.

 

Go offshore on a fishing trip when it's 70F at the dock....get to the grounds offshore and it's 45F.

 

LOL?

 

Oceans temps are about 10-15F cooler than they were in Dec, so that should help.

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Upton sweetens the pot refering to a Norlun effect possibility after departure of the main slug(Thurs.) to another FRiday Snow. see below & smile

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=offANOTHER POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANORLUN TROUGH AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THIS WOULD RESULT INADDITIONAL PCPN WHICH APPEARS WOULD IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
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Way way way way to much model hugging going on! To claim where the exact rain snow line is before we even know exactly where the storm is going is insane! Not to mention that some of the current rain snow lines as depicted are just way off. Snow in Cape May and rain on LI.... Really? Come on!!

Lol most people were model hugging on T-5,6 days. People really need to learn to just use the models as a guide and supplement it with trends, previous experiences, climatology, and just plain if it looks weird or not.

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