Metsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS verbatim is mostly rain for the island in sure... It does have a warm bias in the BL though which needs to be addressed, in addition when the CCB kicks in as long as the precip is heavy enough even LI should get into the action I'd assume... I That is one thing that needs to be watched. Dynamic cooling could take over and resolve the bl issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GFS doesn't have a warm bias, it has a cool bias, but from what I've seen from past storms this winter was that the GFS has a warm BL a lot of the time. Being west of the blue line will help, but doesn't mean you're 100% snow, it could rain if you're west of the blue line, it can snow if you're east of it. Thanks. The low was too tucked into the coast there. A little east and it would have been Like the nam with temps and precip type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's been a mild winter and the SST's are a bit higher than normal, but the fact that it is Feb. and not Dec. is significant. Go offshore on a fishing trip when it's 70F at the dock....get to the grounds offshore and it's 45F. That is one thing that needs to be watched. Dynamic cooling could take over and resolve the bl issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS verbatim is mostly rain for the island in sure... It does have a warm bias in the BL though which needs to be addressed, in addition when the CCB kicks in as long as the precip is heavy enough even LI should get into the action I'd assume... I GFS is usually too warm in these situations-when the Euro and NAM are both colder it's usually safe to go with them. It was too warm on 2/8 (had it almost all rain for a time) as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Really? LI nothing? It actually gets the most precip in the area, but no snow I guess. I think that will change though. A cold trend is coming, and storms this year have been colder than modeled. 99.9% of the time LI jackpots with precip amounts... its the bl/surface temps that burn you guys most of the time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's been a mild winter and the SST's are a bit higher than normal, but the fact that it is Feb. and not Dec. is significant. Go offshore on a fishing trip when it's 70F at the dock....get to the grounds offshore and it's 45F. LOL? Oceans temps are about 10-15F cooler than they were in Dec, so that should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Upton sweetens the pot refering to a Norlun effect possibility after departure of the main slug(Thurs.) to another FRiday Snow. see below & smile http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=offANOTHER POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANORLUN TROUGH AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THIS WOULD RESULT INADDITIONAL PCPN WHICH APPEARS WOULD IN THE FORM OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes, that was my point. LOL? Oceans temps are about 10-15F cooler than they were in Dec, so that should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 LOL? Oceans temps are about 10-15F cooler than they were in Dec, so that should help. If we have an offshore wind direction, particularly NNE or NE, and thumping precip I think most of us are fine. The nighttime apex of the heaviest precip also helps with accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes, that was my point. Yea its a big deal and with most of the precip at night the sun angle factor will be negated as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Navgem fwiw just caved Ccb into NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Boxing Day storm...famous GFS initialization error storm...EURO didn't hope on board until the 00z run the day b4 the storm. You mean didn't hop BACK on board. They were showing an all out blizzard 5, 6 days out and lost it for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Way way way way to much model hugging going on! To claim where the exact rain snow line is before we even know exactly where the storm is going is insane! Not to mention that some of the current rain snow lines as depicted are just way off. Snow in Cape May and rain on LI.... Really? Come on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Way way way way to much model hugging going on! To claim where the exact rain snow line is before we even know exactly where the storm is going is insane! Not to mention that some of the current rain snow lines as depicted are just way off. Snow in Cape May and rain on LI.... Really? Come on!! Lol most people were model hugging on T-5,6 days. People really need to learn to just use the models as a guide and supplement it with trends, previous experiences, climatology, and just plain if it looks weird or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Out of curiosity from the 2/8 storm how much total QPF was there at KNYC, KJFK and at Upton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Navgem fwiw just caved Ccb into NYCCould you post it?Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 The hi resolution NAM also has significant snow amounts through 60 hr http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_18z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The hi resolution NAM also has significant snow amounts through 60 hr http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_18z/snow60.gif Doesn't go past 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Navgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Doesn't go past 60? Not the 12km regional version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GEFS at 60 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12060.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GEFS even more bullish. Well over 1" of qpf, closer to 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GEFS even more bullish. Well over 1" of qpf, closer to 1.5" Closer to NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GEFS even more bullish. Well over 1" of qpf, closer to 1.5" Seems like every time that has happen the op got wetter next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Closer to NAM. What did temps and snow line look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Total precip on the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What did temps and snow line look like? Big CCB signal 850s are SE of everyone, looks like snow for most E LI could be more wet than white. But this is just a mean, individual members will be more telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GEFS look awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think it's time for a Mother of God post...GEFS are insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think it's time for a Mother of God post...GEFS are insane! Pure weather porn, hardcore stuff considering its March. 1.5" pretty darn close to the 18z NAM now. I want to see individuals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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