Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 one thing is for sure. This looks nothing like the GFS...0.25 line in 6 hrs at 27 up to SI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 FYI- looking over total qpf of each member of the SREF...only one member (NMB7) is even remotely close to overall QPF distribution...that is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 8:03 PM, YanksFan27 said: Hour 24 light precip moving in. The surface is really warm. It seems quicker than the last run? Not surprised it’s warm, thats 1PM which is the peak of the daytime warmth, temps should crash in 2-3 panels. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 solid vv's get in here around hr 30. Looks similar so far to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 8:08 PM, ace0927 said: FYI- looking over total qpf of each member of the SREF...only one member (NMB7) is even remotely close to overall QPF distribution...that is incredible. I’m guessing one camp is big hits, and another is misses? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 7:51 PM, Kaner587 said: surface looks similar to the nam-ish and the 850's are below 0 throughout. Too lazy to compare to 09z though lol. Either way if the sref verified it'd be heavy snow for a period that would accumulate. My concern is that the end result will be less precip over a longer period a la the euro. Thanks, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You can see how the surface low looks like it's going to be pushed southeast and then at the last second it turns the corner and begins heading NNE. It's sitting right off the Virginia Capes at hr 27-30 with light to moderate precip over the area and surface temps beginning to crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This run has more northern stream interaction and further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 8:08 PM, ace0927 said: FYI- looking over total qpf of each member of the SREF...only one member (NMB7) is even remotely close to overall QPF distribution...that is incredible. Can you post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 There is MUCH greater interaction with that "kicker" shortwave this run, making it act as NOT a kicker, helping to pull the storm north. What a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The NAM doesn't look like it's backed off much at all either. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Heavy, heavy CCB for most of the area at 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 hahaha this actually looks BETTER than 12z at 33. WHAT IS GOING ON. WHY DO YOU DO THIS TO US MOTHER NATURE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hour 33 heavy snow from the CCB NYC on northwest. The rest of the area is still above freezing at the surface. Looks way better than the Goofus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 WOW, thought it was going to cave after the GFS did, but it’s gotten stronger. Still think it’s out to lunch and overamped, but interesting none the less. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 and it looks to be colder thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 vv's continue to be high overhead at 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Look at this increased interaction. 18z at 30: 12z at 36: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 8:10 PM, Dsnowx53 said: There is MUCH greater interaction with that "kicker" shortwave this run, making it act as NOT a kicker, helping to pull the storm north. What a difference. The NAM is a prime example why we want more interaction with that northern "kicker" shortwave. Pretty big hit at hour 30 with a heavy band setting up in NYC into C NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 For the coastal interests around the NY Bight, there will be several high tide cycles approaching moderate flooding limits over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 seriously can someone please tell me wtf is going on. Why does this happen. for gods sake for all of our sanity can we get some damn model agreement@@@$!!~! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hour 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What a forecasting nightmare, another 20 mile shift NW and this was going to spit out some very high numbers again. 20 miles southeast and we get next to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Crushed at hour 36. This is getting ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 8:14 PM, Kaner587 said: seriously can someone please tell me wtf is going on. Why does this happen. for gods sake for all of our sanity can we get some damn model agreement@@@$!!~! I think models will keep playing with us until tomorrow noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is sick, forecasting nightmare. SREFS and NAM won't budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is cold and throws the CCB right over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is just insane today the way this is unfolding. In all my years of following these models, I don't think I've ever seen anything like this 24 hour out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 at 36 0.75 line through about southern half of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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