earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREF mean snowfall courtesy of Wright-Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 3:01 PM, earthlight said: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_12z/snow60.gif Pretty much as expected 6-12 areawide. Cut it in half and we'd still all be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Surprised no one has mentioned the wind aspect yet... NAM has about 25 knot sustained winds for NYC for a good period of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 3:05 PM, Zir0b said: Surprised no one has mentioned the wind aspect yet... NAM has about 25 knot sustained winds for NYC for a good period of time In my discussion yesterday I noted that the wind would probably be more impactful than the snowfall especially near the shore. The high resolution NAM seems to want to mix down some of the very strong winds at 925 hPa as it moves along the NJ Coast. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/wind31.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I posted this over in the Philly form since its part of "their" CWA, but I know someone was in here from Toms River/Lakewood asking yesterday. Can Monmouth/Ocean really jackpot again like in November? Any support for that area from EURO (KBLM output)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 3:01 PM, earthlight said: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_12z/snow60.gif that dosen't seem right, only 4" here despite over an inch of QPF and no major temp issues? it's the clown map though, they call it that for a reason -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 3:15 PM, skisheep said: that dosen't seem right, only 4" here despite over an inch of QPF and no major temp issues? it's the clown map though, they call it that for a reason -skisheep On the soundings (BDR) you guys do very well, maybe 0.75" as snow. Those maps are always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 3:25 PM, jm1220 said: On the soundings (BDL) you guys do very well, maybe 0.75" as snow. Those maps are always He's near HPN and BDR...not BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 3:15 PM, skisheep said: that dosen't seem right, only 4" here despite over an inch of QPF and no major temp issues? it's the clown map though, they call it that for a reason -skisheep No, call it because of the clown colors... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS coming in slightly more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 3:31 PM, yl715 said: GFS coming in slightly more amped I disagree...looks less amplified and farther south to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 The GFS looks pretty awful through 36 hours..farther south and the dynamics are pretty terrible compared to the 00z run. This might come in with less than 0.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS though 39 is a pretty big disaster. Don't know what is going on with this model but with how amped it was yesterday to how it looks now is night and day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 3:37 PM, earthlight said: The GFS looks pretty awful through 36 hours..farther south and the dynamics are pretty terrible compared to the 00z run. This might come in with less than 0.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 3:37 PM, Kaner587 said: GFS though 39 is a pretty big disaster. Don't know what is going on with this model but with how amped it was yesterday to how it looks now is night and day It's been ticking south and east at H5 each run. Surface is slowly responding to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ack definitely far SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 wow this run is really bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Now it's even further south than the euro. Watch the euro come even further north lol. Anyway I give up with this such complete model mayhem this winter it's maddening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 wow barely.25 -.50 for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 3:37 PM, Kaner587 said: GFS though 39 is a pretty big disaster. Don't know what is going on with this model but with how amped it was yesterday to how it looks now is night and day I did that a few times this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 3:39 PM, Kaner587 said: Now it's even further south than the euro. Watch the euro come even further north lol. Anyway I give up with this such complete model mayhem this winter it's maddening i really do not expect much of a change in the EURO... now the GFS is the driest of all the models then inconsistency is sickening with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If the GFS solution were to verify it wouldn't come as a surprise to the masses, as this storm was never hyped up as a huge snowmaker on TV for our area too much....same with boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 From northern outlier to southern outlier in 18 hours. Suspect the ecm comes northa bit more. Amazing ride this one has been tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Funny....the other models actually trended TO the GFS scenario...now the GFS is trending away from its ideas that it had held strong with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I don't see this as the GFS moving towards the consensus because at this point it is by far the driest. Even the se ukie brought close to a half in of qpf. Same with cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 what a forecasting nightmare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 wow, your screw job take DC north of the rain/snow line... sorry about that, i kinda want to share this thing with everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 3:43 PM, WintersGrasp said: Funny....the other models actually trended TO the GFS scenario...now the GFS is trending away from its ideas that it had held strong with GFS has done this quite a few times in recent memory. I'm not sure why but it seems like it sniffs out some sort of trend, overdoes it then over corrects in the opposite direction. Such an odd 36 hours for that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Its the biggest JUMP scenario in all the modeling , certianly possible 36 hours out and the NCEP arguing amongst themselves . uggg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Turkey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can someone with knowledge provide some analysis of why the GFS changed course so drastically, i.e. what changed from its previous runs that would lead to this solution rather than the solutions it had been showing for multiple runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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