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Snow & Jackpot Contest

Bob Chill

By Bob Chill,
in Mid Atlantic

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clueless

clueless

Posted
Posted

Rules are simple.

 

Snow Totals

 

BWI:

 

DCA:

 

IAD: 

 

RIC:

 

LYH:

 

I doubt there will be a tiebreak but if there is, best combined guess in the jackpot contest breaks the tie.

 

 

 

 

Snow & QPF Jackpot:

 

Guess the highest snow total within DE-MD-VA borders. Location makes no difference. OBS must come from a minimum trained spotter or Coop Observer.

 

Guess the highest QPF total at one of the 5 cities listed above (location doesn't matter). 

 

 

 

Snow:

 

QPF:

BWI. 8.5

DCA 5.5

IAD 8

RIC 4

LYN 7

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
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Posted

Why were D.C. and WV left out of the bullseye contest?

Crap. Totally unintentional. WV should have been on the list. DC wasn't on the list because there is zero chance of either....lol

What I meant was the sub forum boundaries. I'm tired man. Sleep deprived and a little sloppy with my brain keyboard connection.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

BWI: 2.5"

 

DCA: 0.8"

 

IAD: 1.9"

 

RIC: 1.0"

 

LYH: 4.5"

 

(MDT 7.5")

.

 

 

Snow: 22.0"

 

QPF: 1.20" at RIC mostly rain

 

(I read the OP to mean highest QPF at one of the five cities, not anywhere in region, but for highest QPF in region would say 2.35" at Frederick MD).

 

Max snow in region 22" Snowshoe WV

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

Well maybe a bust from I-95 east, I would expect snowfalls to increase rapidly west of IAD to BWI to ACY but I am going with the hunch that the low drags up just enough warm air to keep almost all the precip as rain most of the time until the low is 100 miles east of Ocean City, with rain turning to sleet at contest sites and with accumulating snow only for a few hours late Wednesday or early Thursday. Not highly confident of this and wish you good luck with the snow quest, clearly there is potential for 10-15 inches of heavy wet snow but do you really want that in the urban areas? Massive snow totals over high ground and a mostly snow event in se PA and central NJ although QPF limits totals to 7-10 inches there.

 

Another way this storm could bust is simply to go north of consensus track and limit the time in northeast backwash making it more like a northerly downsloper. Don't think that would happen but it is March and there is a bit of a push of Gulf air into the Tennessee valley. Axis of heaviest snow then might stay in s PA.

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ravensrule

ravensrule

Posted
Posted

Well maybe a bust from I-95 east, I would expect snowfalls to increase rapidly west of IAD to BWI to ACY but I am going with the hunch that the low drags up just enough warm air to keep almost all the precip as rain most of the time until the low is 100 miles east of Ocean City, with rain turning to sleet at contest sites and with accumulating snow only for a few hours late Wednesday or early Thursday. Not highly confident of this and wish you good luck with the snow quest, clearly there is potential for 10-15 inches of heavy wet snow but do you really want that in the urban areas? Massive snow totals over high ground and a mostly snow event in se PA and central NJ although QPF limits totals to 7-10 inches there.

 

Another way this storm could bust is simply to go north of consensus track and limit the time in northeast backwash making it more like a northerly downsloper. Don't think that would happen but it is March and there is a bit of a push of Gulf air into the Tennessee valley. Axis of heaviest snow then might stay in s PA.

You know your stuff, but I sure hope you are totally wrong.

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HighStakes

HighStakes

Posted
Posted

Sleet?  I haven't seen one sounding that looks remotely like sleet to me.  

I haven't either so it seems a little odd he would bring that into the equation, however during the 3/14/99 event where the suburbs did very well there periodic times during the middle of the storm where sleet mixed in and that was never expected.

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Subtropics

Subtropics

Posted
Posted

you might recall that he forecasts using the moons of Jupiter. I'd just delete his nonsense so the thread doesn't get dragged off-course.

He has proof of it saved on his computer though. I think he is trying to publish when he finds time. Wouldn't be so quick to call it nonsense before we read his study.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

The censorial impulse of the warminista surfaces yet again -- could I suggest that you stick to improving your science before you start making pronouncements about alternatives? But for the record, the research is going fine but is mostly for long-range and severe weather applications whereas this forecast is based almost entirely on conventional meteorology and in any case, I think that was a blatant violation of forum rules, maybe you're the insider and I'm the outsider but the rules as I understand them require respect and not that sort of intrusion. Anyway, we'll find out soon enough, I already said that all outcomes are on the table and so I don't think it "derails" anything to have this discussion, I don't think I'm the only person in the weather world who has some doubts about a large snowfall event in DC at this moment, and obviously I would not be shocked to see a heavy snowfall, it's a somewhat marginal situation.

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blazeKing

blazeKing

Posted
Posted

BWI: 2.5"

 

DCA: 0.8"

 

IAD: 1.9"

 

RIC: 1.0"

 

LYH: 4.5"

 

(MDT 7.5")

.

 

 

Snow: 22.0"

 

QPF: 1.20" at RIC mostly rain

 

(I read the OP to mean highest QPF at one of the five cities, not anywhere in region, but for highest QPF in region would say 2.35" at Frederick MD).

 

Max snow in region 22" Snowshoe WV

 

You're the winner, congrats :)

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MichaelScott

MichaelScott

Posted
Posted

you might recall that he forecasts using the moons of Jupiter. I'd just delete his nonsense so the thread doesn't get dragged off-course.

This is just hilarious. No science, just a personal attack based on his use of concepts you don't have any expertise in. I'm sort of glad the storm went the way it did just because of this post. 

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MichaelScott

MichaelScott

Posted
Posted

Well, she got a bunch of snow, so, yeah. But for the rest of who didn't, eff you!

Well, I didn't get any snow, either. Not sure where the hostility is coming from. Obviously I would have liked to get more snow as well (I got about 2" that melted by 1pm). I just don't like people being narrow minded when it comes to science and weather and that's more important to me than a bit of snow. 

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

I just don't like people being narrow minded when it comes to science and weather and that's more important to me than a bit of snow. 

Discounting the idea that the phases of the moons of Jupiter don't control the weather on Earth is not "narrow-mindedness".  It's common sense. 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

The ironic feature was that this forecast was made without any particular reference to research in that area as the relevant sectors of our atmosphere are currently located elsewhere. This was part of a hit-and-run attack on me and my research that probably has its roots in my refusal to mend my somewhat skeptical ways although I've never tried to deny the existence of an AGW signal, so to be honest I don't understand the hostility unless it has its source off-forum (I don't know anyone personally who posts on American Weather).

 

My reason for going low on snowfall estimates was mostly a strong hunch that it wouldn't quite be cold enough and in reality there was probably a longer interval of snow reports early in the storm than I might have guessed, but that didn't create any measurable snow at airports. But seeing the disappointment of the forum members in the outcome, I rather wish the event (and the controversial intrusion) had not taken place. Anyway, if there's one point to take away, my forecasting is not entirely overwhelmed by some new scientific theory, I only use the results to fine tune a conventional forecast made the same way everyone else does their forecasting, the research results might be applied to 1 or 2 per cent of forecasts at a maximum. It's a case of trying to apply some statistical results that show a non-random pattern to case by case forecasts and this can easily get into the range of "background noise" in any given event.

 

Anyway, a contest thread is not a discussion thread and I thought it was just the wrong place to raise the objections, but even if not, the better course of action would be simply to ask how the forecast was made, rather than making assumptions which were not even relevant to the forecast in any way.  

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