Sparky Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Even Larry Cosgrove is taking DT to task and DT is not very much liking it, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 it hasn't been real great on our area this year if this ends up playing out as currently proged, I say the NAM wins for leading the way prob more gfs leading but yes, the nam has gone against it's typical crazytalk beyond 48 hrs this time. One thing we should all take away from this is that the gfs was simply steadfast for 24-48 hours. No burps or farts. Way way too many people were discounting that because the goldenchild euro didn't agree. If it was the other way around it wouldn't have been that way at all. The gfs is the second best global in the world and all globals have their strengths. Euro does exceptional in nino's with stj's and -nao's. GFS has proven this year that it's a superior model with ns ull's. At least in our yards. I hope people can remember this but probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCWeatherGuy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can one of the experts give a short summary of why accumulation predictions coming in seem to be more conservative than QPF totals would dictacte? With Euro trending up to 1.20 for DCA and GFS in the 1.7 range (not to mention the over-juiced NAM at 2.00), even if the truth is in middle -- say, 1.5" of precip -- and even with crappy warm-temp ratios in the 7:1 range, we should still be talking about 10+ inches of snowfall. But nobody is predicting that as an acculation total. Are people not buying the upward QPF trend in the Euro and expecting a regress? Are people worried about delayed transition to snow? What factors are leading to those concerns? Any info would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The euro sux Geez. Have some respect man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Geez. Have some respect man. REMEMBER SANDY!1!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How do the models actually report temps in the output? Are they using the value at the end of the time period or is it an average over the time period? Or something else all together? Temperature is calculated at every gridpoint at every timestep of the model. So, how it is reported comes down to what each individual provider displays. For example, Raleighwx's site has surface temps (and upper air for certain levels) at individual 6 hourly timesteps and then also max/min temps within a 6 hourly period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can one of the experts give a short summary of why accumulation predictions coming in seem to be more conservative than QPF totals would dictacte? With Euro trending up to 1.20 for DCA and GFS in the 1.7 range (not to mention the over-juiced NAM at 2.00), even if the truth is in middle -- say, 1.5" of precip -- and even with crappy warm-temp ratios in the 7:1 range, we should still be talking about 10+ inches of snowfall. But nobody is predicting that as an acculation total. Are people not buying the upward QPF trend in the Euro and expecting a regress? Are people worried about delayed transition to snow? What factors are leading to those concerns? Any info would be appreciated. snow maps use algorithms that include many variables. Surface temps are a biggie and the euro is above freezing by 2+ degrees for most. It's just a calc though. snow maps are best used for tool with extent vs amount. It's better to understand soundings and timing and make your own call. snowmaps are notoriously innaccurate with amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 REMEMBER SANDY!1!! euro is broken clock accurate. it's bound to get something right once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanInMd Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Temperature is calculated at every gridpoint at every timestep of the model. So, how it is reported comes down to what each individual provider displays. For example, Raleighwx's site has surface temps (and upper air for certain levels) at individual 6 hourly timesteps and then also max/min temps within a 6 hourly period. Thanks for the info. I figured as much re: the calculation, but rarely see anyone post a min/max in tabular output. The extra info seems helpful in these marginal temp situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thanks for the info. I figured as much re: the calculation, but rarely see anyone post a min/max in tabular output. The extra info seems helpful in these marginal temp situations. For non-Euro models, the instantweathermaps.com site is great to see temps at multiple levels in a map projection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If I get 10"+ of snow IMBY, I'm going full-on Jebman and shovel my entire neighborhood out. Might need to get drunk first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 REMEMBER SANDY!1!! Chesapeake Bay Sandy, or Central New Jersey Sandy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If I get 10"+ of snow IMBY, I'm going full-on Jebman and shovel my entire neighborhood out. Might need to get drunk first. I'll help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Sad- "I do believe that additional downloads of my Kid Weather App will help ensure that snow day(s) for us. You will be supporting my son and I as well." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 If I get 10"+ of snow IMBY, I'm going full-on Jebman and shovel my entire neighborhood out. Might need to get drunk first. we're going to be so tired from days and days of tracking that we'll sleep through the main event. My pupils are already rectangles and every I look at is pixelated. 640 x 480 pizza still tastes good but nothing like a 1080p steak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If I get 10"+ of snow IMBY, I'm going full-on Jebman and shovel my entire neighborhood out. Might need to get drunk first. Shovel quickly. The snow probably won't be around for very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm not a fan of the NCEP site to view the SREF. Does anyone have a better site for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 lol DT's facebook page is getting so badly ripped on right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'll help Drink or shovel? we're going to be so tired from days and days of tracking that we'll sleep through the main event. My pupils are already rectangles and every I look at is pixelated. 640 x 480 pizza still tastes good but nothing like a 1080p steak. If you were a real disciple of Jebman, you'd track through the pain and LOVE it and ASK for MORE like it was the ONE thing you NEEDED in your puny LIFE to make yourself feel WORTHY of existence to experience the glory of dendrites COATING your body as you shovel POUNDS of beautiful white SNOW. AHHHHHHHH. Shovel quickly. The snow probably won't be around for very long. Truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Sad- "I do believe that additional downloads of my Kid Weather App will help ensure that snow day(s) for us. You will be supporting my son and I as well." He came up to a local boy scout meeting in York county a few days ago (my gf's little brother) when they were learning about the weather. The parents hoped for a tutorial on the weather with a kid twist... what he actually did? He just plugged his app... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 lol DT's facebook page is getting so badly ripped on right now Its a delight. My favorite was when he claimed he had 2"-4" in NYC for two days. I guess when you type everything a particular model run says, you can claim anything too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm not a fan of the NCEP site to view the SREF. Does anyone have a better site for it? More than you could of ever wanted: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallsref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Drink or shovel? Both, but only in that order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wow, the DT groupies sure do hate us over here for our differing opinion. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What's been NOT talked about - Part of the " blend" has been the Ec moving a shade north and the GFS/NAM getting more pre change rain down in SW VA. It was not much before and now it's well over .75 in some area's before we sniff snow. We may see 4-6 in my hood but after an inch of rain. So, maybe the EC moved towards the GFS at the surface, the GFS is wetter down south. (O yeah, quote that one) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaSnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 lol DT's facebook page is getting so badly ripped on right now And now he's spreading the manure to LC's page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 He came up to a local boy scout meeting in York county a few days ago (my gf's little brother) when they were learning about the weather. The parents hoped for a tutorial on the weather with a kid twist... what he actually did? He just plugged his app... Please tell me that you guys still mock Eric for being a complete snow weenie. That was one of our favorite past times from Millersville. Of course it was all in good fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baldereagle Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If I get 10"+ of snow IMBY, I'm going full-on Jebman and shovel my entire neighborhood out. Might need to get drunk first. That seems to imply that to achieve full-on Jebman status needs to include being drunk-------From my readings, Jebman is not an imbiber, unless its imbibing enthusiasm for cold snowy weather.However, I think there's a chance he may be Rastafarian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I wish DT didn't ban me last night for disagreeing? I would have loved to get in on today's festivities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That seems to imply that to achieve full-on Jebman status needs to include being drunk-------From my readings, Jebman is not an imbiber, unless its imbibing enthusiasm for cold snowy weather.However, I think there's a chance he may be Rastafarian. I don't think Jebman drinks...I just think I need to be drunk to be like Jebman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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