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March 6th Storm Banter Thread


Bob Chill

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I dont think any media or NWS product that was out late last night came close to verifying for the area they are responsible for. I went on at 12:30am and called for  4" possible in DC and higher amounts possible in n&w suburbs" and even though that was much lower that everything else that was out there it was still too high.

Sombody on a DC TV affiliate or a Balt. affiliate who mentioned in their text that 5-10" for the city and up to a foot possible in the mountains did not have a verified forecast.

I did get 3" and I hope some other areas within 20 miles of DC did also because that can at least mitigate the public ridicule. 

 

The SW/W virginia burbs did pretty well all things considered.  Much better than the MD burbs..I think there were a number of 4-7" measurements 10-20 miles to the west and southwest...

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The SW/W virginia burbs did pretty well all things considered.  Much better than the MD burbs..I think there were a number of 4-7" measurements 10-20 miles to the west and southwest...

I think the best Baltimore suburb was Westminster and they got 5" I think.

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I'm mad but not march 2001 mad. I saw 5 maybe 5.5 inches at peak and some good rates but low visibility was never there....no thunder...and the slush made it gross. Would of been much harder if grass was still green

Agreed on the last part. 3.5" but could've been much worse had I lived even a few miles away on lower ground.

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I got absolutely nothing, nada, zip as in no snow at all. Not even falling from the sky.

 

All I have are puddles....and most of those are from my tears!!!

 

Worst storm EVER!!! I am moving.

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I feel like we had our winning touchdown on the last play of the game overturned by a replay review.

I feel like I just flushed over 100 hours of my limited time on this planet with nothing to show for it and any sane/normal person could never understand why if I tried to explain it.

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I feel like I just flushed over 100 hours of my limited time on this planet with nothing to show for it and any sane/normal person could never understand why if I tried to explain it.

There is no such thing as a normal or sane person. Stop and take a look around your own backyard and the entire world. Nothing but insanity everywhere. At least your affliction can't hurt you or anyone else. Accept your disease and move on. At least you are among your own kind.

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I feel like I just flushed over 100 hours of my limited time on this planet with nothing to show for it and any sane/normal person could never understand why if I tried to explain it.

It's a lot better than video games..lol. My son just came to me after spending about an hour on a calculus problem and said 4.7 was answer. That's about the peak snow depth I measured here in Damascus.

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An aspect that has grown out of control is the fact that weather sells soap powder. NWS does not fall into that but all media including internet wants viewership and if you can chat it up about the heavy snow you get more participation then chatting it up about minimal snow and rain.

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An aspect that has grown out of control is the fact that weather sells soap powder. NWS does not fall into that but all media including internet wants viewership and if you can chat it up about the heavy snow you get more participation then chatting it up about minimal snow and rain.

You made a nice call on the storm.

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If yesterday's NAM had verified, we would have just passed the halfway point of our snow.

 

An aspect that has grown out of control is the fact that weather sells soap powder. NWS does not fall into that but all media including internet wants viewership and if you can chat it up about the heavy snow you get more participation then chatting it up about minimal snow and rain.

 

DC region is going to need a surprise snow, next winter. After this, and two years of disappointment, you know forecasters will be extremely gunshy next winter on making predictions.  Just have one sneak up, and let the naysayers remember how much better off it is when it's well predicted.

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I found it really interesting when I woke up this morning to see the forecasts for 3 locations, not very far apart, but handled by 3 different NWS offices, and how disparate they were. Sterling was calling for 5-9 inches during the day, 2-4 tonight for St Marys and Calvert counties, and I am talking south and along the Bay. Due east in Dorchester County, handled by Wakefield office, the call was 2-4 inches for tonight.. For Easton, Dover and all of the upper Delmarva, Mount Holly was forecasting an inch or less. One was a clear bust in my mind lol. Frankly I think overall there was a failure to factor in the strong easterly winds and the transport of marine air well inland on the northeast side of the storm. Not like it didnt show on the models, The other thing that was consistent in the models, particularly the Euro but the GFS and NAM as well, was that the target area for the heavy snow was clearly west and SW of DC. From run to run DC and places east and north were always on the edge with a tight gradient, and with many runs having little snow closer to the bay and points NE. The warm boundary layer temps obviously another huge issue and the expected column cooling was mostly  overwhelmed by the intrusion of marine air. In retrospect what actually occurred was what we should have expected. I honestly didn't mind the windswept heavy rain, and what was also well modeled on the NAM and GFS was the very heavy rain area in southern DE down to OC. Estimates on radar look like 6-7 inches. Fun storm to follow I thought. 

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The downfall of Pro Forecasters/Mets is social media. If you hype for days that a significant snowstorm is coming and make forecasts days ahead of 6, 10, 12+, how do you tell everyone it isn't going to happen so they wait till the end acting like there is still hope of 12 inches when the moisture is over and the ground is just wet.

 

Reminds me of the Boxing Day Storm a couple years back when some forecasters kept acting like we were getting 10+ even though everyone knew it wasn’t going to happen.

 

I am not sure why NWS ever added a Winter Storm Warning to Anne Arundel and surrounding bay zones. Temperatures over 32, warm bay waters, low elevation, and the Sun Angle doesn't equal snow.

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