March 6th Storm Banter Thread

[Bob Chill]

Perfect end to the winter for DC at least IMO. Couldn't have scripted it much better. Bob Chill might make it a movie.

Bob chill made an appointment with a brain surgeon to remove my memory of the last 2 winters and remove the snow weenie CPU too.

I heard severe is where it's at

[WNash]

March 2001 was 10x as bad I think.

 

I was in Brooklyn then. Two to three feet forecasted up through the start of the actual event. 2.5 inches IMBY. 

 

But the fact that the winter had been a decent one up to then made it a lot less painful. Had that bust happened after a two year drought like this, it would have been far, far worse.

[real]

From what I remember of 2001 bust, you sort of could tell the day before it wasn't going to happen, if you were paying attention, which was harder back then with limited Internet. I recall forecasts of 2 feet of snow on Friday pm news, but those amounts were cut back on the Saturday before the storm was set to begin (fizzle) that night. Could be wrong, but don't recall totally being blindsided like today.

[Ian]

I'm not believing in any of them until they are over.

[TheColtrane]

Hopefully the real lasting legacy of this storm in DC will be to end the naming of them

 

Maybe it'll also help Florida's strawberry season.

[RevWarReenactor]

How could people forget March 2001? Missed the connection, low didn't bomb until it hit New England. We were forecast to get 12-18 inches and some got 2 inches. I also remember it snowing and because the rates sucked and it was during the day, it all melted on contact.

 

Lost of METS took heat over that. Kocin did (back in his weather channel glory days)

 

This storm is similar but not as bad.

[Rib]

Here is the video I was looking for.

[Kay]

Perfect end to the winter for DC at least IMO. Couldn't have scripted it much better. Bob Chill might make it a movie.

 

So true. It would have been pathetic enough for it to fade out quietly, but this final ride is a much more devious kind of torture and fitting last act.

[Bodhi Cove]

Randy needs to post a death certificate for Saturn.  D.O.A. 

 

Winter isn't dead, it's simply been in a coma/vegetative state for 2 years

[RevWarReenactor]

Here is the video I was looking for.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knwNbkuNXCg'>http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=knwNbkuNXCg

 

 

LOL....good times.

[gymengineer]

Only a few of us today were on WWBB for March 2001 but I saw your WSW's and March 2001 was 10x as bad. Models were spitting out 2-3 feet of snow with a stalled low sub 970 off the Jersey Shore. I still have my flashlight that I got for the storm that ended up being an inch of sleet. Comparing this bust to March 2001 is like comparing the Nats AA team to their MLB team.

I think this one's might be worse for here because 3/01 was slowly falling off the rails before the event, especially in the Mid-Atlantic (read John Nese's account in the Philadelphia Weatherbook-- really fascinating narrative of how the forecast progressed from an extended blizzard to a mess of an event with snow, then mix/rain, then heavy snow backlash a whole day later, but with second wave of snow never materializing)- whereas the incoming runs for this storm were getting better *as* the precip was starting!

 

If you read back, we were actually pretty pessimistic two nights ago when the warm GFS runs showed up and the 06Z NAM went north and warm too. We could have gone to bed last night expecting just a little bit better than what we got today-- what makes this one sting is that our hopes increased right into the last moment based on last-minute improvements in the models. 

[ravensrule]

Here is the video I was looking for.

Hey Rib how are you?. I hope all is well, good to see you around.

[Rib]

I'm getting by. With the above poster, no, March 2001 if you were on WWBB, the models were telling us of a storm that would give the snow amounts of 96 with the wind of Ash Wed 62. Sure the models were a bit warm but I still remember the ETA/AVN 2 days before and to this day even with 09-10, I still have never seen a model presentation like I did on March 3 2001. March 2001 is in a class of it's own. Also the area that was supposed to get that foot plus. DC-BOS at one point were lined up for 2-3 feet.

[Bob Chill]

What gym said. I went to bed with mod snow falling, radar looking sweet, and the latest greatest models still pasting me. I woke up to almost no snow falling and an inch on the ground. I was shocked so I went back to sleep to the same scene 2 hours later. Dagger

[stormtracker]

Ji, when are we doing this again?  What's in the 10 day outlook?

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

It has been snowing almost all day here and some heavy bands rolled through. If this was not March with the sun angle packing the new snow, this would have been every bit as advertised. The major bust here was the wind direction and temps in the urban areas. We had snow here and a lot of it, but it never amounted to much due to compaction and the urban areas near the water missed out. When I woke up we had 4 inches, later it snowed heavy at times and all day probably another 7 fell but it simply could not accumulate well and kept packing itself. Out of about a foot of snow that fell I have about 5 inches of the heaviest snow you will find on the ground that continues to pack. Still a fun day, interesting storm, and a free day off to complain about it!

 

 

http://www.flickr.com/photos/32639942@N03/sets/72157632928428745/show/

[ravensrule]

Ji, when are we doing this again?  What's in the 10 day outlook?

Big -NAO, we should get another HECS later this month according to JI weather.

[blazeKing]

I remember being on wright weather bb during that epic bust...still remember Kocin on TWC trying to explain everything and every update they had left us with less and less snow til it was nothing.

[real]

I'm getting by. With the above poster, no, March 2001 if you were on WWBB, the models were telling us of a storm that would give the snow amounts of 96 with the wind of Ash Wed 62. Sure the models were a bit warm but I still remember the ETA/AVN 2 days before and to this day even with 09-10, I still have never seen a model presentation like I did on March 3 2001. March 2001 is in a class of it's own. Also the area that was supposed to get that foot plus. DC-BOS at one point were lined up for 2-3 feet.

 

Not sure where you lived in 2001, if it was Philly,  think things were a bit different up there. I was near Baltimore, and think by the time the storm was about to begin, our forecasted amounts had already been trimmed cause the storm was now "moving farther north." I just don't remember another time like this where everything fell apart so quickly right on top of us. I'm sure there are other examples, but this is the most vivid I can recall at the moment.

[J.Mike]

What gym said. I went to bed with mod snow falling, radar looking sweet, and the latest greatest models still pasting me. I woke up to almost no snow falling and an inch on the ground. I was shocked so I went back to sleep to the same scene 2 hours later. Dagger

I feel your pain buddy. But I must state now: You have been stellar during this crappy winter. Your analysis has been measured and thoughtful for an enthusiast. Also, your sense of humor has been most welcome on a board where most posters take themselves way.too.seriously. Again thx for keeping it real. And your take on Jebman was spot on!

[needbiggerboat]

IMO March 2001 was worse in terms of the precipitous drop from expectations to nothing.  I distinctly remember driving through Arlington, listening to the talk of blizzard potential on WTOP.

 

This one had issues from the outset, but some in the VA area did fair to OK.  We got about 5 inches here, although I was expecting much more.  Got blue sunny skies in 2001.

 

Plus I've evolved to never think of any possible winter event in March as bust-worthy.  Anything that happens is an anomaly.

[eyewall]

I chased the March 2001 event and drove from NC to Long Island (Back to my former home) as it was supposed to be epic. 2-3" was about all we ended up with. Definitely in the top busts of all time for me.

[gymengineer]

Not sure where you lived in 2001, if it was Philly, think things were a bit different up there. I was near Baltimore, and think by the time the storm was about to begin, our forecasted amounts had already been trimmed cause the storm was now "moving farther north." I just don't remember another time like this where everything fell apart so quickly right on top of us. I'm sure there are other examples, but this is the most vivid I can recall at the moment.

Feb 2011 was the same thing except to a smaller degree-- iffy all the way up to the event until last minute improvements as the event was starting prompted last minute WSW's for the suburbs.

[Rib]

Dec 30 2000 was also pretty bad. People in MD and parts of SE PA went to bed expecting 8-12 inches of snow and woke up to sunny skies with a bare ground.

By trimmed down DC was still in the foot plus region on March 4.

[ravensrule]

Dec 30 2000 was also pretty bad. People in MD and parts of SE PA went to bed expecting 8-12 inches of snow and woke up to sunny skies with a bare ground.

By trimmed down DC was still in the foot plus region on March 4.

Yes that is the storm I am thinking about, I could swear it was supposed to be 12-18" and I woke up and it was completely sunny. I think that was worse than 2001.

[eyewall]

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-march-5-2001/storm-of-the-century-of-the-week---weather-predications

From the Daily Show in 2001.

[WNash]

Just need to commemorate the "White Lion" alleged storm with this:

 

[blazeKing]

After March 2001, I told myself if its projected to be a major mid atlantic storm AND it's not a miller A , be very skeptical.

[wxtrackercody]

Current radar shows a rainy mess across much of the Mid-Atlantic. While some locations across western Virginia have picked up nearly two feet, especially in higher elevations, this has been a very weak storm for the region, especially for DC given the predictions.

 

And no, despite what happened last night (and the fact that I SHOULD for that reason), I am not here to gloat about being right. Winter weather is a hard thing to forecast.

 

Moving on though...

 

Philadelphia, Boston, New York are up for the snows next. Shouldn't be anything major.

What a bust.

But maybe there's hope...GFS ensembles through 16 days don't really indicate any permanent warmup:

 

[mdhokie]

15 hours, and .72" liquid at BWI. Horrible rates. .24, .43, are the 6 hour breakdowns. Light green and green instead of blues on the model.