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March 6th Storm Banter Thread


Bob Chill

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Fortunately everyone busted but this is the biggest bust for the immediate area since the Post prob. Glad I only play a meteorologist on the Internet.

No kidding.  What a f*cking joke this is.  NWS just increased my zone forecast for a total of 9-13".  I have 2-3 inches left on the ground, all from last night.  Today, it was light snow in the morning, and right now, it's raining.  Massive, massive bust.  But really, should we actually be surprised by this anymore?  If there is a way for a snowstorm to flame out here, no matter how remote, it'll happen.  Bring on spring, now, and let's put a bullet in the crappy winter.  I'm done.

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I really don't quit remember another bust like this. All prior ones, it seemed the forecasted snows were already on their way back down prior to the next day's non or underwhelming event. In this case, everyone from TV, to LWX, to Cap Weather, were racing to up their forecast totals as the first flakes were falling, convinced they had been too low. And then it turns out, even the initial, most conservative forecasts, were wrong.  Looking forward to the post mortem on this. 

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No kidding.  What a f*cking joke this is.  NWS just increased my zone forecast for a total of 9-13".  I have 2-3 inches left on the ground, all from last night.  Today, it was light snow in the morning, and right now, it's raining.  Massive, massive bust.  But really, should we actually be surprised by this anymore?  If there is a way for a snowstorm to flame out here, no matter how remote, it'll happen.  Bring on spring, now, and let's put a bullet in the crappy winter.  I'm done.

THIS!

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this is the worst non-miller b bust i can ever remember. there were like 300 models all basically saying the same thing 15 minutes before the snow started falling. There weren't any warning signs. Sure, temps were borderline but that is far from the single reason this storm busted. 

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I'm at 12 feet above sl; its snowing alot here, just not at my elevation. I can almost see it........This is a pattern changer, a different season is in order...Let's have it, as I can't begin to evaluate the merits or lack thereof of what would be preferential to vomit-choking....my comments may well produce such effect, and this winter surely has.

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this is the worst non-miller b bust i can ever remember. there were like 300 models all basically saying the same thing 15 minutes before the snow started falling. There weren't any warning signs. Sure, temps were borderline but that is far from the single reason this storm busted

 

so what are some of the other reasons. Temps were the reason i didnt believe all of these crazy totals. The storm track didnt seem to really jump from what looked to be modeled, timing wasnt that off was it?  its precipitating quite a bit and windy....just too warm

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I really don't quit remember another bust like this. All prior ones, it seemed the forecasted snows were already on their way back down prior to the next day's non or underwhelming event. In this case, everyone from TV, to LWX, to Cap Weather, were racing to up their forecast totals as the first flakes were falling, convinced they had been too low. And then it turns out, even the initial, most conservative forecasts, were wrong.  Looking forward to the post mortem on this. 

East winds, March sun angle, no fresh source of cold air, warm low level temps, light precipitation, etc, etc.

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this is the worst non-miller b bust i can ever remember. there were like 300 models all basically saying the same thing 15 minutes before the snow started falling. There weren't any warning signs. Sure, temps were borderline but that is far from the single reason this storm busted. 

 

Yea, its not just temps. In DC, it hasn't even been raining that much (more drizzle). Not sure what QPF has been so far, but clearly no where near what the models were suggesting. 

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I'm sure a red tag knows a heck of alot more than me but I knew we were in trouble when ric had thundersnow and rapid intensification. It wasn't modeled to go down like that at all. You can watch an entire radarloop of storm @ dupage website. You can see the big slug of waa start dying out over us during the rapid intensification process. Then we were no longer in the bullseye for best dynamics after that. 

 

Long story short. I blame RIC. 

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What a joke. I kept thinking it was going to start sticking when it got real heavy but now it's just plain rain.

Not the worst storm though got a chance to shovel the driveway and sidewalk of slush and saw heavy snow.

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It's just incredible how so many otherwise sensible mets/forecasters got themselves caught in the hype of yesterday evening. Tom Tasselmyer with his 6-12" call, CWG calling for 7-14", usedtobe writing about thundersnow, zwyts saying his highest call will verify, and so forth.

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It's just incredible how so many otherwise sensible mets/forecasters got themselves caught in the hype of yesterday evening. Tom Tasselmyer with his 6-12" call, CWG calling for 7-14", usedtobe writing about thundersnow, zwyts saying his highest call will verify, and so forth.

What do you suggest they do? Throw out every single model's QPF? 

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It's just incredible how so many otherwise sensible mets/forecasters got themselves caught in the hype of yesterday evening. Tom Tasselmyer with his 6-12" call, CWG calling for 7-14", usedtobe writing about thundersnow, zwyts saying his highest call will verify, and so forth.

If only they had listened to the The Fozz.

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for those who don't have this link. go here http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/

 

click lwx and run the 200 loop. you can see the energy vacuum suck the life out of us as things got wrapped up near RIC. 

Yup. Some are trying to spin this but bottom line was that the mega rates and huge precip totals never materialized. We aren't even going to hit the Euro numbers.

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