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March 6th Storm Banter Thread


Bob Chill

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With regard to the UKMET/GGEM, if you live in southern Virginia, you say those came south.

 

If you live in northern VA, you say those came north.

 

Its like a Rorschach test.

 

I noticed this yesterday. SE was saying those were shifting south. MA was saying those were coming north. This has been the most entertaining event all winter. Watching DT on the brink of a meltdown has been entertaining too.

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*sigh*      From what I see of the GGEM as far as surface low pressure system.         Transfer a low to Western NC.  The low then generally heads ene and extis just north of the VA/NC.   Afterwards is where it diverts from the GFS..     The low pressure system continues in a general eastward progression.    Snow would still be heaviest in northn VA and into Maryland area.       South side of Virginia would not get much out of this.   South East is pretty  much all rain.  Richmond gets very little snow with this path,      Mostly rain followed by MAYBE a couple of inches of snow.      

GGEM would NOT bring significant snow into BOSTON like the GFS has.    But down here in Virginia.. all models seem to be forming a consensus for a Western and Northern VA special extending into Maryland and SE/PA and portions of New Jersey.      

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This is pretty funny. If (and when) the Euro folds in an hour, there's no doubt he'll claim initialization errors.

He'll conveniently spin it and still point out why the euro is right and gfs is wrong. The whole gfs was right for the wrong reasons. His shtick is tiresome.

Bottom line is the gfs got the idea 48 hours or so ago and never once let up. Not even a burp. Yea, tossing sne a bone is new but it's not like the gfs didn't have a huge storm already. Block weakened enough to turn up. If the euro even goes half way towards the gfs the the cave is complete.

Any system like this will look for every and any reason to make the turn and gain latitude of the coast. Give it a chance and it will do it. It doesn't even need a big door. Just a crack. The Ull is a damn beast with a left turn blinker permanently on.

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Hey NOVA, thx for the map.

Do you have an idea as for timelines? Something like:

 

> Tues 8PM light percip starts as a mix east of I95

> Wed 6AM percip changes to all snow west of I95, still mix in DC

> Wed 11AM percip strengthens, snow line creeping southeast from DC

> Wed 2PM all snow DC area south along I95 up to MD, heavy banding

 

This would help a lot of us weenies to set proper expectations and not freak out if we wake up Wed AM and it's raining.

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My current probabilities:

100% chance of clouds
98% chance of precipitation
95% chance of snow
80% chance of big globby snow
62% chance of a pinger that makes me want to shoot someone
12% Ji is happy with the end result

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