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March 6th Storm Banter Thread


Bob Chill

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That LWX map actually just cut DC's snowfall back to 6 to 8, after briefly upping it to 8 to 10. But can we just agree to ban it. Really is pointless. In fact, entire weather service system for conveying accumulations needs major, major upgrade or its pointless. So much conflicting info from same source, and changes too frequently. really does a disservice.

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Nasty dry slot looks to run around 95.  Will be interesting to see how far north it gets.  Models keep it out of DC area, but it gets close.

 

Thats definitely a concern of mine.  The dry slot sorta shows up on RAP but its not too aweful.  If it's bad it could cut totals a good bit but still would be a big storm here.

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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALLSPENESMDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-.SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/06/13 0609ZSATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0545Z     CW.LOCATION...MARYLAND...VIRGINIA...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...WEST VIRGINIA....ATTN WFOS...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...ATTN RFCS...MARFC...OHRFC....EVENT...MOD/HVY SNOWS.SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS CLEAR AND DEFINEDBLOCKING PATTERN SETUP ACROSS THE NRN ATLANTIC WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOWPRESSURE ALIGNED W TO E.  THIS BLOCKING IS HELPING TO PREVENT STORM SYSTEMACROSS OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC TO SLOW ITS ENE PROGRESSION.THIS SETUP IS KEEPING THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER IN/OH/WRN WVAND NEWLY FORMING COMMA HEAD (FROM DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER NC) ACROSSERN VA/CENTRAL NRN VA/WRN AND CENTRAL MD/DC RATHER QUASI-STATIONARY ANDORIENTED W TO E.  STRONG SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY IS SEEN RACING EWD AND OVERKY/TN ATTM.  THIS UL FEATURE SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE UVVS ALONG THE COMMAHEAD CLOUD SIGNATURE OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HRS. BELIEVE WITHIN THIS AREAOF THE STORM SYSTEM...AHEAD OF PV ANOMALY... IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCEFOR INTENSE MESO SNOW BANDS MIGHT SETUP AND TRACK S TO N OVER THE NEXTSEVERAL HRS FROM W-CENTRAL TO CENTRAL VA INTO NE WV/WRN AND CENTRAL MD/DC..AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREASHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY10-15 MINUTES..SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0610-1210Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORTTERM OUTLOOK...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS THROUGH 12Z LIKELY TO SETUP ACROSSA STRETCHED OUT AREA FROM W-CENTRAL TO CENTRAL VA/NE WV/WRN AND CENTRALMD/DC AS COMMA HEAD CLOUD SIGNATURE NOT LIKELY TO PROGRESS MUCH FURTHER NDUE TO BLOCKING SCENARIO.  APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY SHOULD HELPFUEL HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES FOR THIS AREA WITH 1-2"/HR AND SOME LOCALLY2"+/HR RATES IN THE MOST INTENSE MESO BANDS......NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.....FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITEPRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE [email protected] PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/.FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php.LAT...LON 3965 7766 3927 7655 3833 7689 3776 7833 3778 80223938 8037.NNNN

 

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