midatlanticweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If you blend them all together the NAM kind of overpowers! SHEESH!!! I mean take the average of them all and it sways it. I was ready to issue last call on my snow amounts.... ummm ... I am waiting until Thursday morning when I am sure it will be clear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Agree. What a fail. Can't buy a break around these parts. 2-4 inches is still great compared to what we've seen in this horrible streak of lack of snow. Plus, NWS could still bump later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Friday, LOL USA_REFD_1000m_075.gif From the other thread - Now there's the NAM on some of the good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 2-4 inches is still great compared to what we've seen in this horrible streak of lack of snow. Plus, NWS could still bump later. I don't disagree with you but it will be a mushy mess for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I don't disagree with you but it will be a mushy mess for sure. Yeah no doubt - tho the entire area will be a very wet mushy snow. Best snow consistency analog is probably Jan 2011. I lost power but it made for some great pictures. Good luck to both of us - most important thing is that it's still a tricky forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Agree. What a fail. Can't buy a break around these parts. Im hoping the 39 degree bay wont influence us bay coastal folks. Actually kept us cooler today with water temps in upper 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 so i've been "working" from home today and haven't had a chance to go outside much. just walked to the starbucks and i admit, it's a little warmer out than i expected. at least dp is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So, I would guess we want the skies as clear as possible after sunset to aide in radiational cooling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Topper Shutt on WUSA seems to be saying he doesn't agree with LWX decision not to include PG and Anne Arundel in the warning. He has 3 to 6 for them. Also is keeping 6 to 9 for the city, and more aggressive than others in suggesting up to a foot in western Montgomery and Fairfax. https://twitter.com/Toppersweather/status/309040387362795520/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 From the other thread - Now there's the NAM on some of the good stuff we always get 48 hour snow events, didn't you know that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Topper Shutt on WUSA seems to be saying he doesn't agree with LWX decision not to include PG and Anne Arundel in the warning. He has 3 to 6 for them. Also is keeping 6 to 9 for the city, and more aggressive than others in suggesting up to a foot in western Montgomery and Fairfax. https://twitter.com/Toppersweather/status/309040387362795520/photo/1 Really either side could bust/verify. There seem to be arguments for both. Tho for now I'd say it's probably better to hedge a little lower - at least until we see if the GFS keeps doing what it's doing. Can always upgrade later and play catch-up I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Its always pretty cool when the place you stormchase to is bullseyed. Commmon Front Royal VA. The bad sign? The Weather Channel sent an on camera Met to report here...shiiii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zgummy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 When's the best time to take a nap? After the 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Im hoping the 39 degree bay wont influence us bay coastal folks. Actually kept us cooler today with water temps in upper 30's I feel like anytime you have an east wind where we are (on the bay), it's just asking for trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Really either side could bust/verify. There seem to be arguments for both. Tho for now I'd say it's probably better to hedge a little lower - at least until we see if the GFS keeps doing what it's doing. Can always upgrade later and play catch-up I suppose. Exactly - GFS temps have been pretty concerning for us east of DC since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Its always pretty cool when the place you stormchase to is bullseyed. Commmon Front Royal VA. The bad sign? The Weather Channel sent an on camera Met to report here...shiiii not sure it matters but front royal is like 500-600'...you may want to get higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You sure that wasn't the 12:30 forecast? Numbers went down to 2-5 at 3:30 ouch you are correct. 2-4" over the whole period. boooooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Something I truly never understood about the wx community. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely respect the NWS... I can understand really looking at NWS products if you don't know much about weather, however before every event I see people bickering and arguing about whether or not watches/advisories/warnings are put, snow totals, etc. etc. etc. You can pretty much read these forums or look at snow accumulation products to get a general sense of how much snow you're getting. Do people just like the idea of having a winter storm warning for their areas? Do they think that if theyre under a warning theyll magically get more snow than originally thought? Like I said, if you're a total wx noob with no knowledge of looking at models I understand, but for a wx enthusiast I truly do not understand the obsession over snow total products the NWS puts out. Seriously before every storm we see threads with pages full of arguing over NWS forecasts it is so annoying. Read the NYC thread for example, my god. I hope people don't read this post and take it the wrong way, let me repeat. I absolutely respect NWS job and what they do for the general public and the amount of work/effort/time put into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Something I truly never understood about the wx community. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely respect the NWS... I can understand really looking at NWS products if you don't know much about weather, however before every event I see people bickering and arguing about whether or not watches/advisories/warnings are put, snow totals, etc. etc. etc. You can pretty much read these forums or look at snow accumulation products to get a general sense of how much snow you're getting. Do people just like the idea of having a winter storm warning for their areas? Do they think that if theyre under a warning theyll magically get more snow than originally thought? Like I said, if you're a total wx noob with no knowledge of looking at models I understand, but for a wx enthusiast I truly do not understand the obsession over snow total products the NWS puts out. Seriously before every storm we see threads with pages full of arguing over NWS forecasts it is so annoying. Read the NYC thread for example, my god. I hope people don't read this post and take it the wrong way, let me repeat. I absolutely respect NWS job and what they do for the general public and the amount of work/effort/time put into it. I'm not a wx expert by any means, but I think part of it is, at least with me, that people take a "warning" more seriously than an "advisory". It's the terminology believe that sets people off. Just my $.02 (For the record, I just want snow, don't care if it's a WSW, WWA, WWE, WCW, etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm so happy we aren't in DST yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18Z GFS running, most important run until the 0Z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i'd feel much more comfortable about snow if i was in frederick as opposed to bethesda. radar trends sure look like all the way into pa will do well with this one, but what do i know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 4 km NAM is 16-18 for everyone on or west of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm so happy we aren't in DST yet Snow at 8pm and still light out would be awesome!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 4 km NAM is 16-18 for everyone on or west of I-95. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 4KM NAM has 20" at IAD 4 km NAM is 16-18 for everyone on or west of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow, NBC is doing a segment on EURO vs GFS models. Pretty cool that sites like this and blogs like CWG is making TV mets become more technical, which is good methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i don't think dc wants this storm coming any further north at this point. already a close call. i'd be ready to take what the latest gfs/nam showed and take my chances in dc metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think the odds of a low imby bust for 6-8" have increased greatly. 8-10? Did models actually all trend in our favor on the final day? Is the voodoo hex over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 4KM NAM has 20" at IAD Where can I get hi-res NAM clown maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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