blueapple Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18z NAM says that PHL is now in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 FML no internet connection here and using phone. It will be okay. We had nada all winter and now we have March miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 52 degrees with dark clouds on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohndc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So, I live about a mile and a half from DC in Cheverly. My point forecast calls for 3-6 inches (about what I thought), but puts me under a WWA for 2-4 inches. I know LWX is having to forecast for all parts of PG and AA counties, but for some reason the WWV is just a downer when I see the WSW a mile a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The Nam has a dislike for FDK. Probably .5-.7 precip and the clown map hardly moves in FDK. I'll take it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I don't envy the pros on this one. Model consensus ain't exactly there and the area is completely divided. You'd literally almost need a neighborhood by neighborhood forecast towards the city. It is March so elevation and location are huge factors. During severe I am many times high and dry while there are storms going on 360 deg around me. Going to be interesting to see what happens. These storms can surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I really hope that AA Co forecast busts, but I'm not hopeful. 2-4"? WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 JYO to OKV to Woodstock, VA is going to be the jackpot, somewhere in that triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 another NAM run, another 30" of imaginary snow. I love the NAM deeply. I was just going to express my great affection for it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 JYO to OKV to Woodstock, VA is going to be the jackpot, somewhere in that triangle Thanks. Hopefully MBY at 645 elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The Nam has a dislike for FDK. Probably .5-.7 precip and the clown map hardly moves in FDK. I'll take it though. It's ok, remember this gem from October 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 AACo WWA but my point forecast is for 6-11". Usually we overperform when NWS tries to hedge. You sure that wasn't the 12:30 forecast? Numbers went down to 2-5 at 3:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's ok, remember this gem from October 2011? That image makes violent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I really hope that AA Co forecast busts, but I'm not hopeful. 2-4"? WTF Agree. What a fail. Can't buy a break around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If you blend them all together the NAM kind of overpowers! SHEESH!!! I mean take the average of them all and it sways it. I was ready to issue last call on my snow amounts.... ummm ... I am waiting until Thursday morning when I am sure it will be clear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Agree. What a fail. Can't buy a break around these parts. 2-4 inches is still great compared to what we've seen in this horrible streak of lack of snow. Plus, NWS could still bump later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Friday, LOL USA_REFD_1000m_075.gif From the other thread - Now there's the NAM on some of the good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 2-4 inches is still great compared to what we've seen in this horrible streak of lack of snow. Plus, NWS could still bump later. I don't disagree with you but it will be a mushy mess for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I don't disagree with you but it will be a mushy mess for sure. Yeah no doubt - tho the entire area will be a very wet mushy snow. Best snow consistency analog is probably Jan 2011. I lost power but it made for some great pictures. Good luck to both of us - most important thing is that it's still a tricky forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Agree. What a fail. Can't buy a break around these parts. Im hoping the 39 degree bay wont influence us bay coastal folks. Actually kept us cooler today with water temps in upper 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 so i've been "working" from home today and haven't had a chance to go outside much. just walked to the starbucks and i admit, it's a little warmer out than i expected. at least dp is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So, I would guess we want the skies as clear as possible after sunset to aide in radiational cooling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Topper Shutt on WUSA seems to be saying he doesn't agree with LWX decision not to include PG and Anne Arundel in the warning. He has 3 to 6 for them. Also is keeping 6 to 9 for the city, and more aggressive than others in suggesting up to a foot in western Montgomery and Fairfax. https://twitter.com/Toppersweather/status/309040387362795520/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 From the other thread - Now there's the NAM on some of the good stuff we always get 48 hour snow events, didn't you know that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Topper Shutt on WUSA seems to be saying he doesn't agree with LWX decision not to include PG and Anne Arundel in the warning. He has 3 to 6 for them. Also is keeping 6 to 9 for the city, and more aggressive than others in suggesting up to a foot in western Montgomery and Fairfax. https://twitter.com/Toppersweather/status/309040387362795520/photo/1 Really either side could bust/verify. There seem to be arguments for both. Tho for now I'd say it's probably better to hedge a little lower - at least until we see if the GFS keeps doing what it's doing. Can always upgrade later and play catch-up I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Its always pretty cool when the place you stormchase to is bullseyed. Commmon Front Royal VA. The bad sign? The Weather Channel sent an on camera Met to report here...shiiii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zgummy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 When's the best time to take a nap? After the 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Im hoping the 39 degree bay wont influence us bay coastal folks. Actually kept us cooler today with water temps in upper 30's I feel like anytime you have an east wind where we are (on the bay), it's just asking for trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Really either side could bust/verify. There seem to be arguments for both. Tho for now I'd say it's probably better to hedge a little lower - at least until we see if the GFS keeps doing what it's doing. Can always upgrade later and play catch-up I suppose. Exactly - GFS temps have been pretty concerning for us east of DC since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You sure that wasn't the 12:30 forecast? Numbers went down to 2-5 at 3:30 ouch you are correct. 2-4" over the whole period. boooooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.