WNash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Q: isn't the storm total map the graphical representation of what drives the point forecast? So it's not exactly accurate to say it's auto-generated -- forecasters do the zones, the mediating points are interpolated automatically. So there's some margin of error but it's not like data is dumped in and outputted blindly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joc111 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 My warning may say 4-8", but whoa..... 7-DAY FORECASTTonight Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 2am. Low around 32. East wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Wednesday Snow. High near 34. Breezy, with a northeast wind 18 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow, mainly before 3am. Low around 30. Blustery, with a north wind around 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 My warning may say 4-8", but whoa..... 7-DAY FORECAST Tonight Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 2am. Low around 32. East wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Wednesday Snow. High near 34. Breezy, with a northeast wind 18 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow, mainly before 3am. Low around 30. Blustery, with a north wind around 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Covering tracks. Nice to think they could see a high end surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Good lord the 18z nam deserves a scott coastalwx wheeeeeeeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Covering tracks. Nice to think they could see a high end surprise I'm not sure I buy the Wednesday night thing, but that would rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 AACo WWA but my point forecast is for 6-11". Usually we overperform when NWS tries to hedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol @ the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Don't freak out too much about point forecast details-- the zone forecast is the product that someone has actually thought about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And ofcourse, PG is fringed.. I so wish I was back home for this storm. Hopefully the increased predicted precip compensates for the initial rain that I inevitably will experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 AACo WWA but my point forecast is for 6-11". Usually we overperform when NWS tries to hedge. I think NWS should split Northern AA Co/ Southern AA Co- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think NWS should split Northern AA Co/ Southern AA Co- If they do that, they better split PG county too, the wraparound under DC is very different than NE of DC. Oxon Hill vs. Greenbelt have very different weather, especially in storms like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm all in for the NAM. yes, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The map has mysteriously disappeared from the front page of the LWXsite... Edit: It's back now. Phew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 BGE is sending out warnings to customers regarding losing power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I don't envy the pros on this one. Model consensus ain't exactly there and the area is completely divided. You'd literally almost need a neighborhood by neighborhood forecast towards the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18z NAM says that PHL is now in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 FML no internet connection here and using phone. It will be okay. We had nada all winter and now we have March miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 52 degrees with dark clouds on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohndc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So, I live about a mile and a half from DC in Cheverly. My point forecast calls for 3-6 inches (about what I thought), but puts me under a WWA for 2-4 inches. I know LWX is having to forecast for all parts of PG and AA counties, but for some reason the WWV is just a downer when I see the WSW a mile a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The Nam has a dislike for FDK. Probably .5-.7 precip and the clown map hardly moves in FDK. I'll take it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I don't envy the pros on this one. Model consensus ain't exactly there and the area is completely divided. You'd literally almost need a neighborhood by neighborhood forecast towards the city. It is March so elevation and location are huge factors. During severe I am many times high and dry while there are storms going on 360 deg around me. Going to be interesting to see what happens. These storms can surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I really hope that AA Co forecast busts, but I'm not hopeful. 2-4"? WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 JYO to OKV to Woodstock, VA is going to be the jackpot, somewhere in that triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 another NAM run, another 30" of imaginary snow. I love the NAM deeply. I was just going to express my great affection for it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 JYO to OKV to Woodstock, VA is going to be the jackpot, somewhere in that triangle Thanks. Hopefully MBY at 645 elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The Nam has a dislike for FDK. Probably .5-.7 precip and the clown map hardly moves in FDK. I'll take it though. It's ok, remember this gem from October 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 AACo WWA but my point forecast is for 6-11". Usually we overperform when NWS tries to hedge. You sure that wasn't the 12:30 forecast? Numbers went down to 2-5 at 3:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's ok, remember this gem from October 2011? That image makes violent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I really hope that AA Co forecast busts, but I'm not hopeful. 2-4"? WTF Agree. What a fail. Can't buy a break around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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