Scraff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 meltdowns starting That'd be me. Sorry. Always try to keep an up-beat even keel, but it always pains the weenie in me when I have a QPF leak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 15z SREFs should be out shortly... we shall see if they hold like 9z and 12z NAM Im sure they will, I think they are out at 2:20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That'd be me. Sorry. Always try to keep an up-beat even keel, but it always pains the weenie in me when I have a QPF leak. It happens to us all as we age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That'd be me. Sorry. Always try to keep an up-beat even keel, but it always pains the weenie in me when I have a QPF leak. GFS has us just over 1", Euro just under 1" and NAM near 2". All 3 models suggest that it would be mostly if not all snow for you and I...I'm having a hard time finding agony in that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Babybee2010 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Since no one answered me, I'm going to take that as Harford County isn't going to get much snow. My plans will not be cancelled by snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Since no one answered me, I'm going to take that as Harford County isn't going to get much snow. My plans will not be cancelled by snow. You're getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Since no one answered me, I'm going to take that as Harford County isn't going to get much snow. My plans will not be cancelled by snow. The NWS has you at 6-8", and CWG has you at 3-8", though higher if you are west in the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Im sure they will, I think they are out at 2:20. When is next NAM again? Maybe we'll all get another serious NAM pummeling. Would GFS has us just over 1", Euro just under 1" and NAM near 2". All 3 models suggest that it would be mostly if not all snow for you and I...I'm having a hard time finding agony in that... Wheeeeeeew. Ok good. Guess I should know better to look at the finite details a bit more. I always think BWI first for me, but in essence it's still different here. Thanks my friend. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sorry, may have worded that wrong. Would it be better if I said that the other models should weigh more heavily? I stand by my previous statement about using globals in the short term. However, you also can/should include the higher resolution/more frequently updating models when moving into shorter ranges. They certainly can potentially aid in resolving small scale details (banding, convection), regional effects (cold pooling), etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 bullcrap. I would love for Midlothian/ashland/RIC to get snow. I just want rain over DTs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 When is next NAM again? Maybe we'll all get another serious NAM pummeling. Would Wheeeeeeew. Ok good. Guess I should know better to look at the finite details a bit more. I always think BWI first for me, but in essence it's still different here. Thanks my friend. Cheers! 2:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 2:45 Thanks. Maybe I need to pull out my Ravens avatar for the afternoon model runs. The whole Saturn thing is stupid--looking at you Weather Channel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
columbiawx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wheeeeeeew. Ok good. Guess I should know better to look at the finite details a bit more. I always think BWI first for me, but in essence it's still different here. Thanks my friend. Cheers! We have about 250' of elevation over BWI and are about 10 miles further from the bay. In really marginal set ups like this, I think desperately hope those variables matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm not going to be disingenuous and claim that I'll be happy with 3-5" of snow from this thing. Because I won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We have about 250' of elevation over BWI and are about 10 miles further from the bay. In really marginal set ups like this, I think desperately hope those variables matter. Every foot of elevation counts in these super tight calls I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm not going to be disingenuous and claim that I'll be happy with 3-5" of snow from this thing. Because I won't. It's a good thing that's currently not supported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We have about 250' of elevation over BWI and are about 10 miles further from the bay. In really marginal set ups like this, I think desperately hope those variables matter. Yes, I've observed drastic difference after a storm leaving Columbia and heading east on Route 100 toward BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just got a call from BGE. Summary: "take cover here comes the snow and don't blame us if your power goes out" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm not going to be disingenuous and claim that I'll be happy with 3-5" of snow from this thing. Because I won't. only becuase everyone thought they would get much more....which is still on the table btw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 If you've lived in your location for 5 years or more you can just go by memory. Marginal temp events usually follow the same spread on accums. My location will almost always fall in between dc/pg obs and germantown/damascus obs. If I'm off and on mix then dc is usually all rain while upper moco is all snow. With that being said, my call of 6-8 looks totally doable. I'd be more surprised with 5 than I would with 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm not going to be disingenuous and claim that I'll be happy with 3-5" of snow from this thing. Because I won't. Same here. I want no less than 6" from this. A few inches of scattered slop doesn't do anything for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's a good thing that's currently not supported. But it's got bust potential written all over it. only becuase everyone thought they would get much more....which is still on the table btw! And it's got overperformer potential written all over it, too. Same here. I want no less than 6" from this. A few inches of scattered slop doesn't do anything for me. I know people will say that we should be realistic and that climo doesn't support a big snow around now, but we've had some damn good model agreement on this thing for some time (especially the American models), and I don't want to be Lucy'd. But, of course it'll all be melted in a couple days and be but a memory, so if we bust we won't fret over it for too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I see warnings (4 to 7) in I-95 corridor... S MD (sorry Wes) WWA 3 to 5 The counties that go to a WWA may hold the WS Watch for tomorrow evening/night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baldereagle Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Same here. I want no less than 6" from this. A few inches of scattered slop doesn't do anything for me. Petulance will get you rain, or snain, to go with your whine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I bet you get over 6" fozz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I bet you get over 6" fozz Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Cities got upgraded to warnings for 4-8". Immediately east of DC got WWAs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 My temperature is 51 degrees. 1. I am gonna enjoy my golf game this afternoon, and 2. I am really enthusiastic about my upcoming cartop coating of rain. One thing I am very nervous about is the stark fact that I am only a few scant miles from the WWAs. I'd feel better if I was in Leesburg, but it is what it is. I'm very close to the Potomac River only 70 feet above the beautiful blue Atlantic lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT has to issue another "Why i busted post" on his facebook page. He has to do this for like 90% of storms he forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Cities got upgraded to warnings for 4-8". Immediately east of DC got WWAs. And I fully expect to wake up tomorrow and see the WWA canceled in lieu of 35 and rain all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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