dtk Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm sure dtk could speak more about this, but I thought it's resolution is nowhere near the others. gfs ~ 27km nam ~ 12 km ecmwf ~ 17km (I think) nam-conus-nest ~ 4 km SREF members ~ 18-22 km This is just spatial resolution.....they all use very different vertical coordinates as well. Also, the notion that you shouldn't use a global model to aid in the short term is preposterous. How can a model be any good at 3-5 days if it sucks in the 0-24h range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The anxiety level is rising...do I smell a major bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I like that we have mets discounting euro warm bl bias and celebrating 850 temps. No complaints with that! wxusaf is a true snow weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I like that we have mets discounting euro warm bl bias and celebrating 850 temps. No complaints with that! Not at all. Euro usually does great upstairs but not so great on surface. If we stuck all the most recent runs of the important models and stuck them between 2 slices of bread it's the best sandwich I've had since Feb 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well, all models are close but with unique differences. I'm goin with the temps on the coldest and the snow on the wettest until proven wrong late tomorrow. You'll have your answer during the cold drizzle at noon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm always good for some weenie support. I am not going to touch this with a 10 foot pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The anxiety level is rising...do I smell a major bust. fueling the fire.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 wxusaf is a true snow weenie Representin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 bullcrap. I would love for Midlothian/ashland/RIC to get snow. I just want rain over DTs I am 100% ok with this. I love reading his fabricated snow totals and the "chester klingon snowshield" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 BGE making calls to people about power outages as a result of the storm. Makes sense, if we get 8" of heavy wet snow there will be a lot of power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The anxiety level is rising...do I smell a major bust. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm getting a headache seeing your local temp widgets going up this afternoon. If I can't cheer for you guys to get a dumping, I should just go troll the NE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 wxusaf is a true snow weenieCan't hate him for that. Man what a complicated setup. More than any I remember recently in one of my locales. Time to start lending a lot of credit to the short term models/higher res as today winds down. Tracking temps upstream and our current temps to modeled temps might be somewhat fruitful for figuring out temp profiles. I imagine there are some actual observed sounding data to view this afternoon if people can post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 My forecast for tomorrow - warm/humid with highs in the lower 80s. Chance for a tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just as I was heading to lunch... the song Crazy Train from Black Sabbath started playing... irony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On a more serious note - I am thinking warnings for the next tier of counties and the cities. Then advisories south and east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 My forecast for tomorrow - warm/humid with highs in the lower 80s. Chance for a tornado watch. Snowecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On a more serious note - I am thinking warnings for the next tier of counties and the cities. Then advisories south and east of there. I see warnings (4 to 7) in I-95 corridor... S MD (sorry Wes) WWA 3 to 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Actually, all I will have to do to defend DCA will be to find my flamethrower at this rate. But WHERE did I put it??? Seriously, I don't think DCA will get three frozen inches. IAD may be another matter entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On a more serious note - I am thinking warnings for the next tier of counties and the cities. Then advisories south and east of there. No...it's looking more like advisory levels not warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No...it's looking more like advisory levels not warnings. Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Anyone else in HoCo feel like we're getting model shafted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 My forecast for tomorrow - warm/humid with highs in the lower 80s. Chance for a tornado watch. that actually sounds good, aside from the tornado watch. after this storm, i'm ready for warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 that actually sounds good, aside from the tornado watch. after this storm, i'm ready for warm weather. I'm big on 70-78 and low humidity. Anything above that and my house starts to bake. Humidity makes it even worse. Florida can keep the moisture. But yes, I am almost ready for some nice weather...just give me my 90 inches first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No...it's looking more like advisory levels not warnings. Thanks for the final word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm big on 70-78 and low humidity. Anything above that and my house starts to bake. Humidity makes it even worse. Florida can keep the moisture. But yes, I am almost ready for some nice weather...just give me my 90 inches first this winter has been a total buzzkill. even if we get 8 inches i'm not going to forgive mother nature for this. i'm kidding, but seriously, winter is just too much work sometimes. my state of mind improves in the spring, no question about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 meltdowns starting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 gfs ~ 27km nam ~ 12 km ecmwf ~ 17km (I think) nam-conus-nest ~ 4 km SREF members ~ 18-22 km This is just spatial resolution.....they all use very different vertical coordinates as well. Also, the notion that you shouldn't use a global model to aid in the short term is preposterous. How can a model be any good at 3-5 days if it sucks in the 0-24h range? Sorry, may have worded that wrong. Would it be better if I said that the other models should weigh more heavily? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Going with 4-8 DC/inner burbs. 3-5 s & e of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 15z SREFs should be out shortly... we shall see if they hold like 9z and 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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