H2O Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 My forecast for tomorrow - warm/humid with highs in the lower 80s. Chance for a tornado watch. Snowecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On a more serious note - I am thinking warnings for the next tier of counties and the cities. Then advisories south and east of there. I see warnings (4 to 7) in I-95 corridor... S MD (sorry Wes) WWA 3 to 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Actually, all I will have to do to defend DCA will be to find my flamethrower at this rate. But WHERE did I put it??? Seriously, I don't think DCA will get three frozen inches. IAD may be another matter entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On a more serious note - I am thinking warnings for the next tier of counties and the cities. Then advisories south and east of there. No...it's looking more like advisory levels not warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No...it's looking more like advisory levels not warnings. Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Anyone else in HoCo feel like we're getting model shafted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 My forecast for tomorrow - warm/humid with highs in the lower 80s. Chance for a tornado watch. that actually sounds good, aside from the tornado watch. after this storm, i'm ready for warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 that actually sounds good, aside from the tornado watch. after this storm, i'm ready for warm weather. I'm big on 70-78 and low humidity. Anything above that and my house starts to bake. Humidity makes it even worse. Florida can keep the moisture. But yes, I am almost ready for some nice weather...just give me my 90 inches first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No...it's looking more like advisory levels not warnings. Thanks for the final word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm big on 70-78 and low humidity. Anything above that and my house starts to bake. Humidity makes it even worse. Florida can keep the moisture. But yes, I am almost ready for some nice weather...just give me my 90 inches first this winter has been a total buzzkill. even if we get 8 inches i'm not going to forgive mother nature for this. i'm kidding, but seriously, winter is just too much work sometimes. my state of mind improves in the spring, no question about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 meltdowns starting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 gfs ~ 27km nam ~ 12 km ecmwf ~ 17km (I think) nam-conus-nest ~ 4 km SREF members ~ 18-22 km This is just spatial resolution.....they all use very different vertical coordinates as well. Also, the notion that you shouldn't use a global model to aid in the short term is preposterous. How can a model be any good at 3-5 days if it sucks in the 0-24h range? Sorry, may have worded that wrong. Would it be better if I said that the other models should weigh more heavily? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Going with 4-8 DC/inner burbs. 3-5 s & e of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 15z SREFs should be out shortly... we shall see if they hold like 9z and 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 meltdowns starting That'd be me. Sorry. Always try to keep an up-beat even keel, but it always pains the weenie in me when I have a QPF leak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 15z SREFs should be out shortly... we shall see if they hold like 9z and 12z NAM Im sure they will, I think they are out at 2:20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That'd be me. Sorry. Always try to keep an up-beat even keel, but it always pains the weenie in me when I have a QPF leak. It happens to us all as we age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That'd be me. Sorry. Always try to keep an up-beat even keel, but it always pains the weenie in me when I have a QPF leak. GFS has us just over 1", Euro just under 1" and NAM near 2". All 3 models suggest that it would be mostly if not all snow for you and I...I'm having a hard time finding agony in that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Babybee2010 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Since no one answered me, I'm going to take that as Harford County isn't going to get much snow. My plans will not be cancelled by snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Since no one answered me, I'm going to take that as Harford County isn't going to get much snow. My plans will not be cancelled by snow. You're getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Since no one answered me, I'm going to take that as Harford County isn't going to get much snow. My plans will not be cancelled by snow. The NWS has you at 6-8", and CWG has you at 3-8", though higher if you are west in the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Im sure they will, I think they are out at 2:20. When is next NAM again? Maybe we'll all get another serious NAM pummeling. Would GFS has us just over 1", Euro just under 1" and NAM near 2". All 3 models suggest that it would be mostly if not all snow for you and I...I'm having a hard time finding agony in that... Wheeeeeeew. Ok good. Guess I should know better to look at the finite details a bit more. I always think BWI first for me, but in essence it's still different here. Thanks my friend. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sorry, may have worded that wrong. Would it be better if I said that the other models should weigh more heavily? I stand by my previous statement about using globals in the short term. However, you also can/should include the higher resolution/more frequently updating models when moving into shorter ranges. They certainly can potentially aid in resolving small scale details (banding, convection), regional effects (cold pooling), etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 bullcrap. I would love for Midlothian/ashland/RIC to get snow. I just want rain over DTs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 When is next NAM again? Maybe we'll all get another serious NAM pummeling. Would Wheeeeeeew. Ok good. Guess I should know better to look at the finite details a bit more. I always think BWI first for me, but in essence it's still different here. Thanks my friend. Cheers! 2:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 2:45 Thanks. Maybe I need to pull out my Ravens avatar for the afternoon model runs. The whole Saturn thing is stupid--looking at you Weather Channel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
columbiawx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wheeeeeeew. Ok good. Guess I should know better to look at the finite details a bit more. I always think BWI first for me, but in essence it's still different here. Thanks my friend. Cheers! We have about 250' of elevation over BWI and are about 10 miles further from the bay. In really marginal set ups like this, I think desperately hope those variables matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm not going to be disingenuous and claim that I'll be happy with 3-5" of snow from this thing. Because I won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We have about 250' of elevation over BWI and are about 10 miles further from the bay. In really marginal set ups like this, I think desperately hope those variables matter. Every foot of elevation counts in these super tight calls I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm not going to be disingenuous and claim that I'll be happy with 3-5" of snow from this thing. Because I won't. It's a good thing that's currently not supported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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