snowfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Latest hourly obs from the big three: BWI: 41/15 IAD: 44/18 DCA: 45/18 With those low dews, we should cool rather quickly later this afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It certainly is warm out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Areas in Winchester in the mid-upper 40's too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I can always count on cooling pretty quickly here. And now I def hugging whatever model has the best temp profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skipper Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Doesn't the GFS have a drier bias anywhere north of where it predicts a higher qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Areas in Winchester in the mid-upper 40's too... I'm still at 37. But if OKV is that high, I should probably expect a spike the next few hours. 36 at HGR, 40 at MRB at the top of the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'll lighten the mood after the gfs stole some of the namshow, It's RAP time! 18hr sim from 14z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 First rule of forecasting is not to predict a record event unless you're totally positive. I can't take anyone with 10"+ as a low number for DC seriously sorry. 5-10" seems very good guess for dc/bwi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Now that we have the latest GFS and its almost now-casting time, any predictions on the time of changeover (or at least reported weenie hallucinations) for the I-95 corridor? My guess is I spend all night staring at rain in my street light then see first flakes around the time I get to work (9a). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Overnight tonight is certainly looking better than it did a day or two ago. Should start as snow for most of us and accumulate overnight. It's after dawn (and maybe closer to noon) that things might get dicey if the GFS is right. Cue Ian with a sun angle trademark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Overnight tonight is certainly looking better than it did a day or two ago. Should start as snow for most of us and accumulate overnight. It's after dawn (and maybe closer to noon) that things might get dicey if the GFS is right. Cue Ian with a sun angle trademark... Can I ask when you think the precip might start in earnest tonight in Montgomery County? I'm really sorry for the IMBY but I'm supposed to be driving throughout the county tonight for an elderly family member... up until about 10:30 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Dunno about the GFS. Should stop worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 5-10" seems very good guess for dc/bwi could be. i'll probably just stick with my 5" benchmark unless something looks amazing soon. i kinda doubt 10 but maybe someone in a high spot gets banded for a while. (im really only talking dc here) but when you got to 10-15 the forecast becomes considerably more iffy imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You would think they would have to make a decision by the 3 PM package? Let it go. Warnings don't make it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Great disco is the storm thread this morning without a bunch of thoughtless posts. I'm sure that trend will reverse when the euro smokes us....or whiffs us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 could be. i'll probably just stick with my 5" benchmark unless something looks amazing soon. i kinda doubt 10 but maybe someone in a high spot gets banded for a while. (im really only talking dc here) but when you got to 10-15 the forecast becomes considerably more iffy imo. It could bust either way, and for the purpose of being cautious a wsw should go up for safety of the public. There's always the chance it does dump. 2.0" qpf of paste is a hazard filled storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can I ask when you think the precip might start in earnest tonight in Montgomery County this evening? I'm really sorry for the IMBY but I'm supposed to be driving throughout the county tonight for an elderly family member... up until about 10:30 or so. I think you'll probably be ok until that time. I think by midnight it should be starting to snow. Roads will probably be fine either way for the start at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 for DC 2-3" of snow followed by driving rain followed by 2-3" of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It feels warm out there. Would never know a snowstorm is coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Great disco is the storm thread this morning without a bunch of thoughtless posts. I'm sure that trend will reverse when the euro smokes us....or whiffs us You said it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Serious bidness question: Should someone in particular start the obs thread? Like someone with a proven track record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 for DC 2-3" of snow followed by driving rain followed by 2-3" of snow? Reasonable. I think I put down 5.5 on our contest - all science behind that one I just hope we trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Great disco is the storm thread this morning without a bunch of thoughtless posts. I'm sure that trend will reverse when the euro smokes us....or whiffs us Started off super shaky earlier in the AM but was certainly correct later on. I'm guessing there were quite a few 5 posts initiated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 for DC 2-3" of snow followed by driving rain followed by 2-3" of snow? Change "driving rain" to "snow melting on contact and rain/snow mix" and I think it's very possible. Even with the GFS soundings, I don't think anyone on I-95 is going to get straight up heavy rain. Wes? Maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 for DC 2-3" of snow followed by driving rain followed by 2-3" of snow? So final result of 2-3" in the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think the chance for more rain and just slop has increased significantly based on what is occurring now. The is only so much that cold air aloft can do for you when the day of the start of the event the temps are in a 45-49 range and the clouds increase after the heating max has occurred and you don't radiate out post sunset. Based on every analog set up I have ever observed in an event like this DCA has Never received more than 4" accumulation and will not this time either. The laying down of snow cover before 9am now seem less likely than before, probably 50/50 right now, and I believe getting that snow cover is critical to significant accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm still at 37. But if OKV is that high, I should probably expect a spike the next few hours. 36 at HGR, 40 at MRB at the top of the hour. I'm 44 with an 18 DP...Not concerned about temps. Clouds on the horizon to the west. 12 hours from now should look completely different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 for DC 2-3" of snow followed by driving rain followed by 2-3" of snow? If we get heavy driving rain I'm going to break things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If we get heavy driving rain I'm going to break things wasnt the whole goal to get heavy precip. There should be no heavy rain. Its either Moderate/Heavy snow or light/rain drizzle imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The laying down of snow cover before 9am now seem less likely than before, probably 50/50 right now, and I believe getting that snow cover is critical to significant accumulation. I think most of us will break the 2" before dawn. Probably not DCA, but most of the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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