Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Being on the bay in southern AA county the 12z NAM and GFS has me feeling much better! Hope the Euro holds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ummm...GFS has been touching the witch's teat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ummm...GFS has been touching the witch's teat. may i even ask what that mean...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 may i even ask what that mean...? No snow for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sounding for DCA per 12z NAM from BUFKIT: 10-11 pm RA 12-2am SN 2-4am SN+ 4 am-11 am SN 11 am - 1 pm SN+ 2 pm-5 am SN 6 am SN- Snow accumulations somewhere from 15-20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS has a weaker low that slides out more... Doesn't seem to get below 996. Edit: 994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hey guys posting from a reststop halfway on my roadtrip. I dont know much about Va and who usually jackpots, but I chose Front Royal VA. My goal is to hit 20" we should see. Hard to say. Think it is ok. Elevation matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Remember The Sandy giddy mode on hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sometimes you have to slap yourself and realize how perfect the upper levels are for a burial for a lot of the area. If the soundings look like snow just gotta remind yourself meteorology not modelogy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Almost 40 in FDK already . Gambrill (1700') is at 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sounding for DCA per 12z NAM from BUFKIT: 10-11 pm RA 12-2am SN 2-4am SN+ 4 am-11 am SN 11 am - 1 pm SN+ 2 pm-5 am SN 6 am SN- Snow accumulations somewhere from 15-20" Good luck with 15-20 in DC proper. Remember there will be worse ratios than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hey guys posting from a reststop halfway on my roadtrip. I dont know much about Va and who usually jackpots, but I chose Front Royal VA. My goal is to hit 20" we should see. didnt you go to Boston for NEMO storm? Why do you need this? this will be such a letdown compared to Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Starting to wonder if 3-6" for my area would be optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hey guys posting from a reststop halfway on my roadtrip. I dont know much about Va and who usually jackpots, but I chose Front Royal VA. My goal is to hit 20" we should see. I'd go to Woodstock VA....the hotels right off I-81 are 900'+ and it is in a money spot...high elevation close by too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Starting to wonder if 3-6" for my area would be optimistic. For some reason, when I click on your location it takes me to the weather for central france (currently 54 and sunny in case you were wondering) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Good luck with 15-20 in DC proper. Remember there will be worse ratios than normal. I realize that ... thats why I plugged in 8:1 ratios and that resulted in 15 inches. That's why I gave a range. Also, the 20 inches comes from selecting the option to use the max temperature in the profile for each hour to set the ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Soundings don't look that bad at 27h and 30h. Have to have a met decide if that's wet snow or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just about every model run the past two days has dropped a foot here. 11.9" would put me right at climo for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Front Royal will do well. And he can go up on Skyline Drive Thursday morning for a real treat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I want to see my county in pink on the map NOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 For some reason, when I click on your location it takes me to the weather for central france (currently 54 and sunny in case you were wondering) It's a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 First rule of forecasting is not to predict a record event unless you're totally positive. I can't take anyone with 10"+ as a low number for DC seriously sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 A. Gets ugly fast when models disagree. B. How much credence do you give the GFS at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ok snow we take the all snow NAM temps and blend that with the mostly wet snow GFS temps. I'm thinking 4-8 is the right call for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I want to see my county in pink on the map NOW NAM had me at like 14", and the GFS likes about 8". I'm OK with that, even though it probably means 4" in reality. * I'm not actually OK with 4" at this point, but 8-14" of model snow is pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm starting to type stuff that I'm pretty sure only makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And how ugly is my sig? There's a reason I block everyone else's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Almost 40 in FDK already . Gambrill (1700') is at 32. My station is at a depressing 42.8 right now. My silver lining is that the dewpoint is only 15, so we should cool off quickly tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 My station is at a depressing 42.8 right now. My silver lining is that the dewpoint is only 15, so we should cool off quickly tonight Yeah. Was wondering about that. Sinfully nice outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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