Avdave Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Fox 5 is awful. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I wish someone would post solid comparative analysis as to why the nam and gfs differ so much with thermal profile. That is the only question that needs to answered. I'm pretty sure the answer isn't slower faster norther souther dryer wetter easter wester I was going to post that question in the model thread - anyone know the answer to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Four Seasons Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Fox 5 is awful. I thought the numbers seemed off for the immediate DC area, so I figured I'd post them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I was going to post that question in the model thread - anyone know the answer to that? Very few in the model thread do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Fox 5 is awful. This!! Will never forget Sue Palka completly downplaying Feb. 5 until that night, when tornado warnings were going up across coastal North Carolina and 2 inch an hour snows were moving into DC. She seemed confused and admitted, live, on air, as she stared at the radar, something like the "storm is strenghtening far more than I expected." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Very few in the model thread do It must be the cognitive fixing internal thermal profile fixation issues. And its south. Southernly west. I think. I'm pretty sure that's the reason. But in all seriousness, I'd appreciate the info if anyone has it (in whatever thread). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Annddd... We're Back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Come on up Jake Wish I could. My dad's office is in Fairfax and he'll be up there for a few days this week. Too bad I have other commitments. Good news is I'll be off to a four-year school this fall which could put me anywhere from Fredericksburg to Blacksburg. Basically, more snow any way you look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Fox5 has 2-4 for DC/Fairfax/middle Prince William, northern PG; 4-8 for northern PW, southern MoCo and up towards Baltimore; 8-12 for northern MoCo up towards Hagerstown and parts of Loudoun, and 12-15+ for the Blue Ridge. They also mentioned the possibility of rain mixing in the DC area. 2-4 off 2.0" liquid and there's just a possibility of rain mixing, sounds like mostly rain to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I was going to post that question in the model thread - anyone know the answer to that? It's probably related to how much the GooFuS amps up the storm more than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This!! Will never forget Sue Palka completly downplaying Feb. 5 until that night, when tornado warnings were going up across coastal North Carolina and 2 inch an hour snows were moving into DC. She seemed confused and admitted, live, on air, as she stared at the radar, something like the "storm is strenghtening far more than I expected." Oh, I distinctly remember prior to 12/2009, Sue Palka live on air, declaring "we aren't getting a big snowstorm, don't believe the hype on the weather blogs." 24 hours later, she backtracked so fast I'm pretty sure she did a flip on air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just an odd observation ... our cats are keeping very close to the house tonight. Last time they did that was Feb 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm bummed Roanoke isn't as juiced as 2 days ago, but I'll take 2-4" Imby. Hope you DC and nwva folks enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sue Palka should feel more embarrassed than John Bolaris by the way she downplayed those storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I wish someone would post solid comparative analysis as to why the nam and gfs differ so much with thermal profile. That is the only question that needs to answered. I'm pretty sure the answer isn't slower faster norther souther dryer wetter easter wester My guess is the strength of the surface low... the GFS features a 990 MB Low Pressure at the mouth of the Chesapeake... looks like it is pushing a lot of air in from the east... NAM is 1003 MB in the same spot..I am not a forecaster or anything... this is just an observation/ guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I turned all my co-workers (other scientists/science teachers) onto CWG. They were all talking about the live-blog today.... I still can't really believe you'd all "run" to that social media gimmick, but of course it makes sense and is a service for followers during the prime-time hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm bummed Roanoke isn't as juiced as 2 days ago, but I'll take 2-4" Imby. Hope you DC and nwva folks enjoy! I hope they do well too. I'm not a fan of the snow pissing contests. I must admit, though, that it is difficult to sit down here as yet another opportunity slips away. RIC airport has not received more than 14" from a single storm since 1983 (that is including accurate coop measurements) - what a stretch of futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think I'm done posting in the disco thread It is a lost cause Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just an odd observation ... our cats are keeping very close to the house tonight. Last time they did that was Feb 2010. Interesting you mention this - On my way home from work into the neighborhood there were large clusters of deer in certain front yards. I mean deer are not unusual - but they way they were grouped was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's probably related to how much the GooFuS amps up the storm more than the NAM Since you were up in Boston for the blizzard, can you give some info if it did the same with that (obviously a different system, though) and corrected itself? I mean I guess we'll soon find out if the GFS continues warmer than the NAM (and Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 so I didn't have time to look in depth at the 18z runs, but based on what I heard people saying, the low is stronger and slightly further inland. The tighter gradient is causing a more easterly fetch, which is creating a shallow warm layer. I'm not sure if I fully buy the idea that the low has to stay weak for it to stay cold though. I do honestly feel like all the models at this point (sans probably the Euro) are having some wacky **** going on with how they are developing the banding. Based on sim radars, the deform axis seems to move pretty drastically and redevelop over a short time span, which I think is highly unlikely. My theory is the dynamics in this are so off the charts models are just having a hard time with the intricacies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Since SNE is too much in the air I've decided to head to Front Royal, VA...thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just an odd observation ... our cats are keeping very close to the house tonight. Last time they did that was Feb 2010. I love these kinds of posts. No sarcasm. There is always little odd events that happen before big storms, like there is a bigger power at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I turned all my co-workers (other scientists/science teachers) onto CWG. They were all talking about the live-blog today.... I still can't really believe you'd all "run" to that social media gimmick, but of course it makes sense and is a service for followers during the prime-time hours. I do wonder, though, if its a good thing that average non-weather weenies are now briefed on every indivdiual model run. You will be shockedf how many just see one model or blog posting -- such as the NAM -- and then go around assuming all day, and telling others, that 2 feet of snow is likely. Makes it far easier for wild rumors to spread, storms to be blown out of proportions, and charges of "bust" to fly. Curious what others think about this. Is it s a good thing to have individual model runs now so public? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Since you were up in Boston for the blizzard, can you give some info if it did the same with that (obviously a different system, though) and corrected itself? I mean I guess we'll soon find out if the GFS continues warmer than the NAM (and Euro). The GFS was the southern outlier in that system. The EURO was banging a huge storm hard for days before. GFS was the only concern and wrinkle until it finally gave into all of the other models last minute. Not the same situation, but GFS did cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Where is the NAM snow clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS was only scraping interior sne and smoked the cape with the ccb, everything else was smoking hfd-orh-bos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I do wonder, though, if its a good thing that average non-weather weenies are now briefed on every indivdiual model run. You will be shockedf how many just see one model or blog posting -- such as the NAM -- and then go around assuming all day, and telling others, that 2 feet of snow is likely. Makes it far easier for wild rumors to spread, storms to be blown out of proportions, and charges of "bust" to fly. Curious what others think about this. Is it s a good thing to have individual model runs now so public? Oh I definitely sent the NAM clown to all my coworkers last night.... Without a doubt that is how the rumors get started! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The GFS was the southern outlier in that system. The EURO was banging a huge storm hard for days before. GFS was the only concern and wrinkle until it finally gave into all of the other models last minute. Not the same situation, but GFS did cave. Interesting...thanks for the info and clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Since SNE is too much in the air I've decided to head to Front Royal, VA...thoughts? Great spot. Gorgeous mountains right there. You will love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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