NOVAForecaster Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think this about sums up what DT is doing to his followers who disagree with him on Facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is a weenism from this winter: we have trended colder rather than warmer wrt events. We just did not have any precip to make it happen. Just call me the farmer's almanac. I respect dtk's remark regarding data, but all we have now is to watch it all play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 2/11/06, 3/1/09/, 1/26/11.....this is what happens...we get suicidal and then we get pummeled...at midnight on March 2nd 2009 I had a dusting and it had been snowing steady for 6-7 hours...then around 2 or 3 am...crushed uhmmm, we ain't New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If the soundings from the GFS during Sandy would have been correct we would have received a lot of rain out here. NAM nailed it and we got all snow. I have a feeling its going to be more snow for you borderline-folks than you think. Agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is a weenism from this winter: we have trended colder rather than warmer wrt events. We just did not have any precip to make it happen. Just call me the farmer's almanac. I respect dtk's remark regarding data, but all we have now is to watch it all play out. This too. Anybody remember about two weeks ago on a Friday when parts of the DC-BALT area got accum snow when it was about 50 that afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Right now I think something would have to significantly change to go with widespread <6" for the northern DC burbs. Spotty 4-5" reports in MontCo and HoCo? Maybe...but I think most people 6"+ for our area. Solid. We would need to whiff on the deform band to go way low. I have yet to even consider that option. Scrape to the north and its colder. Scraping to the south of it isn't even on the cras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm not worried till warm bl gfs gains consensus and consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What's the consensus with those clowns? That we are too bullish? No, they are DT groupies who are buying into the south solution Euro all the way. Although it looks like DT has changed his thoughts with his first call to more of a Euro/GFS blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Right now I think something would have to significantly change to go with widespread <6" for the northern DC burbs. Spotty 4-5" reports in MontCo and HoCo? Maybe...but I think most people 6"+ for our area. I'd take 6" of snow in a heartbeat right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 the GFS initializes at 10:30....unless you are 80 years old or you have to be at work at 3am and you operate heavy machinery, you should stay up Or if you have a 2 month old and you get sleep whenever you can I have a 16 month old and she certainly helped me stay up for the Euro the past two nights. I plan on sleeping through tonight's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 the next 4 hours are the most important of my life....more than wedding..kids etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 the next 4 hours are the most important of my life....more than wedding..kids etc I'd love the detailed list on what the "etc" includes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 the next 4 hours are the most important of my life....more than wedding..kids etc You always make me laugh. This was amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If the soundings from the GFS during Sandy would have been correct we would have received a lot of rain out here. NAM nailed it and we got all snow. I have a feeling its going to be more snow for you borderline-folks than you think. I'm in the I think it's going to be more snow than rain camp. I'm going by pure instincts and understand there isn't a ton of cold air around but look at the storm a few weeks ago. Dynamics won over and it snowed for a little while in central moco. Last few days have been brisk and its brisk outside right now as well. Just my one cent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Huh? It's not a matter of debate. The extra hour of DST sun comes later in the day, when the sun is hotter and the air is warmer. This offsets any diabetes process cooling that the other guy mentioned with extra darkness in the morning. Since the darkness is later in the morning, it's warmer darkness. This effect is even more intense in PA, given your extra lattitude. Wow, amazing that people actually believe that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 <weenie> On the Feb 13 storm last month, I started out as rain, then some graupel... temps were pretty warm at the surface during the start (38-40), but temps quickly dropped as the heavier precip fell into the atmosphere. Eventually changed over to all snow and even had some accumulation. What makes that storm different than this one, wrt, dynamic cooling? Can the same thing happen with this? Or was it because the Feb 13th storm had a much drier airmass in place prior to the storm? </weenie> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 000 WWUS41 KLWX 050148 WSWLWX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 848 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013 VAZ025>027-029-503-504-WVZ055-501-502-505-506-051000- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0004.130305T1700Z-130307T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0005.130305T2300Z-130307T0500Z/ AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-PAGE-WESTERN HIGHLAND- EASTERN HIGHLAND-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT- WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG... HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM... PETERSBURG...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN 848 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CERTAINTY OF HEAVY SNOW...THE WARNING HAS NOW REPLACED THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT HAD BEEN IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FEET. * TIMING...RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES WITH DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU NEED TO TRAVEL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TAKE PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. ENSURE YOU HAVE AN EMERGENCY KIT IN YOUR TRUNK. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I bet I will get my post reporting privileges taken away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I bet I will get my post reporting privileges taken away I gave up on reporting. I was reporting so often last night that I wasn't able to read the good posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tara1013471 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Any thoughts on how Staunton, VA is looking? We seem to be on the border of very heavy snow but it seems like a close call. The models seem to keep us on the edge. I know its best to not ask for IMBY questions but it is my son's 1st birthday on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Any thoughts on how Staunton, VA is looking? We seem to be on the border of very heavy snow but it seems like a close call. The models seem to keep us on the edge. I know its best to not ask for IMBY questions but it is my son's 1st birthday on Wednesday. you just got upgraded to a winter storm warning. 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Here we go with the faster, slower crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I can't believe I have to explain to weenies how to read a precip map... 6-8" of precip. Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Any thoughts on how Staunton, VA is looking? We seem to be on the border of very heavy snow but it seems like a close call. The models seem to keep us on the edge. I know its best to not ask for IMBY questions but it is my son's 1st birthday on Wednesday. Looks like the best chances for breaking a foot are Harrisonburg/US-33 and north. Afternoon runs had a little more moisture down your way in Augusta county, so this evenings runs will be interesting to see what they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Pretty conservative on the warnings from LWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Here we go with the faster, slower crap It's traditional.. Disagreement is necessary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Pretty conservative on the warnings from LWX... ` A good idea... can always go higher later after the 00z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 ` A good idea... can always go higher later after the 00z suite For sure. Better than going from 18 down to 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 00z NAM is slaster (faster and slower)In all seriousness though ... judging by 27, looks like it's about the same. Maybe a tad south with the end result a h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Pretty conservative on the warnings from LWX... Not uncommon for them to start low and then knock them up a little later. Much easier to up totals than it is to backtrack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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