March 6th Storm Banter Thread

[lsukev]

I suspect the Federal Govt will announce it is closed, right about 10AM Wednesday after everyone makes it in to work.

[ThePhotoGuy]

I hope this verifies:

[WxUSAF]

DT posted his 1st call.  Bolder than most from I-95 on south.

[needbiggerboat]

.

I'm late into this thread, and could be missing an inside joke, but seriously hope you are kidding here.

It's widely known that the extra sun after DST severely reduces snow chances. Not a joke.

[mitchnick]

Everyone needs to stop hugging one or two particular model runs. Take a peek at the HPC site and learn from the pros. A blend of the models/model runs is the way to go.

no, you just need to know which model to hug

and by the way, BWI has been mostly, if not all, snow on the last few NAM runs, not just 18z

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MD&stn=KBWI&model=nam&time=current&field=prec

 

and before anyone says that graph is cr@p, check it against the soundings; I think it is very accurate

[jburns]

It's widely known that the extra sun after DST severely reduces snow chances. Not a joke.

Ah, but the extra hour of darkness in the morning increases snow chances. Now what?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPDATED...

WE`VE SPENT OUR TIME BTWN 4:00 AND 6:30 PM TRYING TO FINE TUNE

SOME OF THE SNOW GRIDS. I HV SOME CONCERNS ABT THE TIME PERIOD OF

6-12Z WED MRNG. TO BEGIN - THE STARTING TEMP: MDLS ARE GIVING HIGH

TEMPS ON TUE OF M40S. SUSPECT IT`S GOING TO REQUIRE SNOW TO FALL

FOR SVRL HRS BEFORE ACCUMS REALLY GET GOING. I HV CUT BACK THE

SNOW TOTAL GRIDS E OF THE MTNS IN THAT WED 6-12Z TIMEFRAME. I`M

ALSO CONCERNED ABT THE TEMP OF THE AIR COLUMN...ESPECIALLY IN THE

DC/BALT AND E CORRIDOR. THRU 12Z WED WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE

THE PCPN IN THE I-95 OSCILATING BTWN RA AND SN - LARGE FLAKES THAT

SPLATTER ON CONTACT. IN ADTN THE ATLC WATER TEMP OFF THE DELMARVA

IS IN THE L40S. THERE IS ALSO NOT A DECENT SOURCE OF CD AIR - ON

THIS AFTN`S SFC ANLYS YOU HV TO GO TO NW QUEBEC TO FIND SUB 20

TEMPS. SO IN ALL FEEL IF ANYTHING OUR SNOW TOTALS THRU 12Z WED MAY

HV BEEN A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...SO TWEAKED DOWN.

FEEL THAT THE 18-00Z WED AND 00-06Z THU PDS MAY BE THE TIMES WHEN

SNOW DOES ACCUMULATE IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR. BY REG WE ONLY RUN THE

SNOW TOTAL MAP THRU 00Z THU...SO TOTALS MAY END UP BEING MORE...

ESPECIALLY IN THE E.

WE WL MOST LKLY BE ISSUING A WIN STORM WRNG FOR THE WRN PART OF

THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT LV THE ERN PART OF THE AREA IN

A WTCH.

[WinterWxLuvr]

.

I'm late into this thread, and could be missing an inside joke, but seriously hope you are kidding here.

Go back to the sports forum.

[Paweatherguy1]

Ah, but the extra hour of darkness in the morning increases snow chances. Now what?

Am I missing something, or do people actually think this??

[Disc]

DT, someone called WxSynopsis and The Faithful are hatin' on us american weenie forum MORONS. 

 

I just looked at his page and his snow (weenie) maps are lol-worthy.

[WxUSAF]

no, you just need to know which model to hug

and by the way, BWI has been mostly, if not all, snow on the last few NAM runs, not just 18z

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MD&stn=KBWI&model=nam&time=current&field=prec

 

and before anyone says that graph is cr@p, check it against the soundings; I think it is very accurate

NAM soundings are definitely all snow for BWI.  They're just probably a bit too cold.

[mappy]

Am I missing something, or do people actually think this??

[NattyBo]

There could be light precip tomorrow evening, but the surface temps will still be warm so the roads should be ok.

I'm hoping to be in by 11PM tomorrow...little later than evening - should still be ok I hope. Thanks.

[needbiggerboat]

Am I missing something, or do people actually think this??

Snow dendriteology 101... Come on man.

[lsukev]

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPDATED...

WE`VE SPENT OUR TIME BTWN 4:00 AND 6:30 PM TRYING TO FINE TUNE
SOME OF THE SNOW GRIDS. I HV SOME CONCERNS ABT THE TIME PERIOD OF
6-12Z WED MRNG. TO BEGIN - THE STARTING TEMP: MDLS ARE GIVING HIGH
TEMPS ON TUE OF M40S. SUSPECT IT`S GOING TO REQUIRE SNOW TO FALL
FOR SVRL HRS BEFORE ACCUMS REALLY GET GOING. I HV CUT BACK THE
SNOW TOTAL GRIDS E OF THE MTNS IN THAT WED 6-12Z TIMEFRAME. I`M
ALSO CONCERNED ABT THE TEMP OF THE AIR COLUMN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
DC/BALT AND E CORRIDOR. THRU 12Z WED WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THE PCPN IN THE I-95 OSCILATING BTWN RA AND SN - LARGE FLAKES THAT
SPLATTER ON CONTACT. IN ADTN THE ATLC WATER TEMP OFF THE DELMARVA
IS IN THE L40S. THERE IS ALSO NOT A DECENT SOURCE OF CD AIR - ON
THIS AFTN`S SFC ANLYS YOU HV TO GO TO NW QUEBEC TO FIND SUB 20
TEMPS. SO IN ALL FEEL IF ANYTHING OUR SNOW TOTALS THRU 12Z WED MAY
HV BEEN A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...SO TWEAKED DOWN.

FEEL THAT THE 18-00Z WED AND 00-06Z THU PDS MAY BE THE TIMES WHEN
SNOW DOES ACCUMULATE IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR. BY REG WE ONLY RUN THE
SNOW TOTAL MAP THRU 00Z THU...SO TOTALS MAY END UP BEING MORE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE E.

WE WL MOST LKLY BE ISSUING A WIN STORM WRNG FOR THE WRN PART OF
THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT LV THE ERN PART OF THE AREA IN
A WTCH.

This is how it starts. First they dont change the watch to a warning and then they change the remaining watch into a WWA.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

This is how it starts. First they dont change the watch to a warning and then they change the remaining watch into a WWA.

 

LOL.  Hopefully we can manage warning criteria.  I haven't given up hope of a solid 4-6 inch dumping.

[Kmlwx]

This is how it starts. First they dont change the watch to a warning and then they change the remaining watch into a WWA.

 

Well...they don't really define exactly where they will issue the warning. I don't think they are doing this in preparation to downgrade - more just uncertainty. Could end up this way but your thinking is off. 

[gymengineer]

LOL.  Hopefully we can manage warning criteria.  I haven't given up hope of a solid 4-6 inch dumping.

The 12Z through 18Z model runs don't suggest that anyone should give up hope on 4-6" for DC.  0Z will give more data, but again, up through now, 4-6" is still a pretty responsible forecast for downtown. 

[jonjon]

I hope this verifies:

12"-17" seems like an unusual range for the bullseye.  How about 12-18"?  I guess you can do whatever you want when you make a map, I just thought that was odd.

[blizzardmeiser]

The 12Z through 18Z model runs don't suggest that anyone should give up hope on 4-6" for DC.  0Z will give more data, but again, up through now, 4-6" is still a pretty responsible forecast for downtown. 

4 to 6 is still a safe bet but it bears watching now.

[MDstorm]

storm is starting to get busy

 

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html

The upper level low which is our storm to be, the 50/50 low, the block, and the sub-tropical moisture feed are all in place. Let the magic happen.

MDstorm

[Bob Chill]

The 12Z through 18Z model runs don't suggest that anyone should give up hope on 4-6" for DC. 0Z will give more data, but again, up through now, 4-6" is still a pretty responsible forecast for downtown.

I agree here. I just had an hour drive home to think things through. Even if it doesn't fall the way we want (door to door snow of course), relatively slow speed and high intensity will compensate.

We all got a reality slap with the gfs soundings. However,the envelope as a whole looks pretty good. I would be pretty surprised if someone through the cities and 95-west reports heavy rain for an extended period. There is no reason to question that the height of the storm being mostly if not all snow for most. It's a slow pivot out of here too.

I think u and I are poised for 6-8 with bust potential probably higher than lower.

[Paweatherguy1]

Snow dendriteology 101... Come on man.

 

Lol Ok. I just don't always know sometimes on these forums if people actually think these things!

 

In any case, best of luck to all you guys down there, except for DT of course, who I hope gets a half inch of slop and 3 inches of rain.

[Bob Chill]

Lol Ok. I just don't always know sometimes on these forums if people actually think these things!

In any case, best of luck to all you guys down there, except for DT of course, who I hope gets a half inch of slop and 3 inches of rain.

You must not follow my stunning analysis posts or you would have known i was joking. I'm sad now. Thx

[MDstorm]

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPDATED...

WE`VE SPENT OUR TIME BTWN 4:00 AND 6:30 PM TRYING TO FINE TUNE

SOME OF THE SNOW GRIDS. I HV SOME CONCERNS ABT THE TIME PERIOD OF

6-12Z WED MRNG. TO BEGIN - THE STARTING TEMP: MDLS ARE GIVING HIGH

TEMPS ON TUE OF M40S. SUSPECT IT`S GOING TO REQUIRE SNOW TO FALL

FOR SVRL HRS BEFORE ACCUMS REALLY GET GOING. I HV CUT BACK THE

SNOW TOTAL GRIDS E OF THE MTNS IN THAT WED 6-12Z TIMEFRAME. I`M

ALSO CONCERNED ABT THE TEMP OF THE AIR COLUMN...ESPECIALLY IN THE

DC/BALT AND E CORRIDOR. THRU 12Z WED WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE

THE PCPN IN THE I-95 OSCILATING BTWN RA AND SN - LARGE FLAKES THAT

SPLATTER ON CONTACT. IN ADTN THE ATLC WATER TEMP OFF THE DELMARVA

IS IN THE L40S. THERE IS ALSO NOT A DECENT SOURCE OF CD AIR - ON

THIS AFTN`S SFC ANLYS YOU HV TO GO TO NW QUEBEC TO FIND SUB 20

TEMPS. SO IN ALL FEEL IF ANYTHING OUR SNOW TOTALS THRU 12Z WED MAY

HV BEEN A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...SO TWEAKED DOWN.

FEEL THAT THE 18-00Z WED AND 00-06Z THU PDS MAY BE THE TIMES WHEN

SNOW DOES ACCUMULATE IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR. BY REG WE ONLY RUN THE

SNOW TOTAL MAP THRU 00Z THU...SO TOTALS MAY END UP BEING MORE...

ESPECIALLY IN THE E.

WE WL MOST LKLY BE ISSUING A WIN STORM WRNG FOR THE WRN PART OF

THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT LV THE ERN PART OF THE AREA IN

A WTCH.

I'm glad that they are accounting for their time spent on their thought process (4:00-6:30). I wonder if that included dinner and bathroom breaks.

MDstorm

[Amped]

12"-17" seems like an unusual range for the bullseye.  How about 12-18"?  I guess you can do whatever you want when you make a map, I just thought that was odd.

 

I'm pretty sure the higher elevations in VA will get 30+ just like  the high res nam is showing. The numbers from March 1962 would also support 30+ amounts above 2000ft.

[jonjon]

If the soundings from the GFS during Sandy would have been correct we would have received a lot of rain out here.  NAM nailed it and we got all snow.  I have a feeling its going to be more snow for you borderline-folks than you think.

[gymengineer]

I agree here. I just had an hour drive home to think things through. Even if it doesn't fall the way we want (door to door snow of course), relatively slow speed and high intensity will compensate.

We all got a reality slap with the gfs soundings. However,the envelope as a whole looks pretty good. I would be pretty surprised if someone through the cities and 95-west reports heavy rain for an extended period. There is no reason to question that the height of the storm being mostly if not all snow for most. It's a slow pivot out of here too.

I think u and I are poised for 6-8 with bust potential probably higher than lower.

We all are nervous right now-- I am plenty. But, just look at the QPF printed out by all the models-- 1.1" on the low end for us to >2" on the high end. I mean, this would have to be a 1/98 or 2/98 deal for there to not be significant accumulations around here. With those two storms, we knew with plenty of notice that rain was going to be the predominant precip type (WSWatch went up for one of them, but never switched to warning).

 

I know we often fail in marginal situations-- but completely fail in a marginal situation with >1" of precip that is shown by every single model 36 hours ahead of onset to deliver at least appreciable accumulating snow? No jumping yet...

 

As everyone else said, I hate the wait between 18Z GFS (when all sorts of doom scenarios can pop up) and the 0Z suite. 

[WxUSAF]

I think u and I are poised for 6-8 with bust potential probably higher than lower.

Right now I think something would have to significantly change to go with widespread <6" for the northern DC burbs.  Spotty 4-5" reports in MontCo and HoCo?  Maybe...but I think most people 6"+ for our area. 

[needbiggerboat]

Lol Ok. I just don't always know sometimes on these forums if people actually think these things!

 

In any case, best of luck to all you guys down there, except for DT of course, who I hope gets a half inch of slop and 3 inches of rain.

Huh? It's not a matter of debate. The extra hour of DST sun comes later in the day, when the sun is hotter and the air is warmer. This offsets any diabetes process cooling that the other guy mentioned with extra darkness in the morning. Since the darkness is later in the morning, it's warmer darkness. This effect is even more intense in PA, given your extra lattitude.