Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This new Bob Ryan ABC 7 video timeline and forecast seems reasonable. Says 3 to 6 for DC and "much much more" out west. I guess he doesn't really buy the latest GFS and its mixing. His animation looks very bullish for Baltimore based on his heavy snow axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Shouldn't The Great DTini have produced his promised call map by now? Still dealing with all of his minions asking how many feet to expect in Frog Holler, NC, I reckon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Shouldn't The Great DTini have produced his promised call map by now? Still dealing with all of his minions asking how many feet to expect in Frog Holler, NC, I reckon. When he says 6pm, he means 9:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 storm is starting to get busy http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 A more complete LWX snow map for those who Care™ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I guess he doesn't really buy the latest GFS and its mixing. His animation looks very bullish for Baltimore based on his heavy snow axis. I agree, and don't see how that animated map adds up to his forecasted amount of "three to as much as six" if DC proper switches from mix to snow at 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Everyone needs to stop hugging one or two particular model runs. Take a peek at the HPC site and learn from the pros. A blend of the models/model runs is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This new Bob Ryan ABC 7 video timeline and forecast seems reasonable. Says 3 to 6 for DC and "much much more" out west. That's pretty bullish for Ryan. It's usually about this time in a storm's evolution that he calls for a few lonely snowflakes.MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Shouldn't The Great DTini have produced his promised call map by now? Still dealing with all of his minions asking how many feet to expect in Frog Holler, NC, I reckon. Maps don't even usually solve that problem. Not sure a lot of people know where they are on a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 the GFS initializes at 10:30....unless you are 80 years old or you have to be at work at 3am and you operate heavy machinery, you should stay up Or if you have a 2 month old and you get sleep whenever you can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well, at least we can be happy that it's not DST. This setup is too fragile to handle an extra hour of sun. It would be 55 at onset if this was next week. . I'm late into this thread, and could be missing an inside joke, but seriously hope you are kidding here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I suspect the Federal Govt will announce it is closed, right about 10AM Wednesday after everyone makes it in to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I hope this verifies: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT posted his 1st call. Bolder than most from I-95 on south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 . I'm late into this thread, and could be missing an inside joke, but seriously hope you are kidding here. It's widely known that the extra sun after DST severely reduces snow chances. Not a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Everyone needs to stop hugging one or two particular model runs. Take a peek at the HPC site and learn from the pros. A blend of the models/model runs is the way to go. no, you just need to know which model to hug and by the way, BWI has been mostly, if not all, snow on the last few NAM runs, not just 18z http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MD&stn=KBWI&model=nam&time=current&field=prec and before anyone says that graph is cr@p, check it against the soundings; I think it is very accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's widely known that the extra sun after DST severely reduces snow chances. Not a joke. Ah, but the extra hour of darkness in the morning increases snow chances. Now what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On the minus side we may be dealing with more rain than we had hoped. On the plus side in a few hours we get to look at the RAP every hour for 48 hours straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPDATED... WE`VE SPENT OUR TIME BTWN 4:00 AND 6:30 PM TRYING TO FINE TUNE SOME OF THE SNOW GRIDS. I HV SOME CONCERNS ABT THE TIME PERIOD OF 6-12Z WED MRNG. TO BEGIN - THE STARTING TEMP: MDLS ARE GIVING HIGH TEMPS ON TUE OF M40S. SUSPECT IT`S GOING TO REQUIRE SNOW TO FALL FOR SVRL HRS BEFORE ACCUMS REALLY GET GOING. I HV CUT BACK THE SNOW TOTAL GRIDS E OF THE MTNS IN THAT WED 6-12Z TIMEFRAME. I`M ALSO CONCERNED ABT THE TEMP OF THE AIR COLUMN...ESPECIALLY IN THE DC/BALT AND E CORRIDOR. THRU 12Z WED WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE PCPN IN THE I-95 OSCILATING BTWN RA AND SN - LARGE FLAKES THAT SPLATTER ON CONTACT. IN ADTN THE ATLC WATER TEMP OFF THE DELMARVA IS IN THE L40S. THERE IS ALSO NOT A DECENT SOURCE OF CD AIR - ON THIS AFTN`S SFC ANLYS YOU HV TO GO TO NW QUEBEC TO FIND SUB 20 TEMPS. SO IN ALL FEEL IF ANYTHING OUR SNOW TOTALS THRU 12Z WED MAY HV BEEN A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...SO TWEAKED DOWN. FEEL THAT THE 18-00Z WED AND 00-06Z THU PDS MAY BE THE TIMES WHEN SNOW DOES ACCUMULATE IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR. BY REG WE ONLY RUN THE SNOW TOTAL MAP THRU 00Z THU...SO TOTALS MAY END UP BEING MORE... ESPECIALLY IN THE E. WE WL MOST LKLY BE ISSUING A WIN STORM WRNG FOR THE WRN PART OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT LV THE ERN PART OF THE AREA IN A WTCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 . I'm late into this thread, and could be missing an inside joke, but seriously hope you are kidding here. Go back to the sports forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ah, but the extra hour of darkness in the morning increases snow chances. Now what? Am I missing something, or do people actually think this?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT, someone called WxSynopsis and The Faithful are hatin' on us american weenie forum MORONS. I just looked at his page and his snow (weenie) maps are lol-worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 no, you just need to know which model to hug and by the way, BWI has been mostly, if not all, snow on the last few NAM runs, not just 18z http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MD&stn=KBWI&model=nam&time=current&field=prec and before anyone says that graph is cr@p, check it against the soundings; I think it is very accurate NAM soundings are definitely all snow for BWI. They're just probably a bit too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Am I missing something, or do people actually think this?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 There could be light precip tomorrow evening, but the surface temps will still be warm so the roads should be ok. I'm hoping to be in by 11PM tomorrow...little later than evening - should still be ok I hope. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Am I missing something, or do people actually think this?? Snow dendriteology 101... Come on man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPDATED... WE`VE SPENT OUR TIME BTWN 4:00 AND 6:30 PM TRYING TO FINE TUNE SOME OF THE SNOW GRIDS. I HV SOME CONCERNS ABT THE TIME PERIOD OF 6-12Z WED MRNG. TO BEGIN - THE STARTING TEMP: MDLS ARE GIVING HIGH TEMPS ON TUE OF M40S. SUSPECT IT`S GOING TO REQUIRE SNOW TO FALL FOR SVRL HRS BEFORE ACCUMS REALLY GET GOING. I HV CUT BACK THE SNOW TOTAL GRIDS E OF THE MTNS IN THAT WED 6-12Z TIMEFRAME. I`M ALSO CONCERNED ABT THE TEMP OF THE AIR COLUMN...ESPECIALLY IN THE DC/BALT AND E CORRIDOR. THRU 12Z WED WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE PCPN IN THE I-95 OSCILATING BTWN RA AND SN - LARGE FLAKES THAT SPLATTER ON CONTACT. IN ADTN THE ATLC WATER TEMP OFF THE DELMARVA IS IN THE L40S. THERE IS ALSO NOT A DECENT SOURCE OF CD AIR - ON THIS AFTN`S SFC ANLYS YOU HV TO GO TO NW QUEBEC TO FIND SUB 20 TEMPS. SO IN ALL FEEL IF ANYTHING OUR SNOW TOTALS THRU 12Z WED MAY HV BEEN A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...SO TWEAKED DOWN. FEEL THAT THE 18-00Z WED AND 00-06Z THU PDS MAY BE THE TIMES WHEN SNOW DOES ACCUMULATE IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR. BY REG WE ONLY RUN THE SNOW TOTAL MAP THRU 00Z THU...SO TOTALS MAY END UP BEING MORE... ESPECIALLY IN THE E. WE WL MOST LKLY BE ISSUING A WIN STORM WRNG FOR THE WRN PART OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT LV THE ERN PART OF THE AREA IN A WTCH. This is how it starts. First they dont change the watch to a warning and then they change the remaining watch into a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is how it starts. First they dont change the watch to a warning and then they change the remaining watch into a WWA. LOL. Hopefully we can manage warning criteria. I haven't given up hope of a solid 4-6 inch dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is how it starts. First they dont change the watch to a warning and then they change the remaining watch into a WWA. Well...they don't really define exactly where they will issue the warning. I don't think they are doing this in preparation to downgrade - more just uncertainty. Could end up this way but your thinking is off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 LOL. Hopefully we can manage warning criteria. I haven't given up hope of a solid 4-6 inch dumping. The 12Z through 18Z model runs don't suggest that anyone should give up hope on 4-6" for DC. 0Z will give more data, but again, up through now, 4-6" is still a pretty responsible forecast for downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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