nj2va Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It'll be fine at 0z. Just a burp at 18z. I'm not worrying unless this continues on the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 now at least i'll feel a bit better when this busts imby I've been waiting for days for a reality check. My piddly 420' ain't gonna do it if the gfs is right. My friends up in mt airy are planning a snow party already. Wah wah. Imho, I do think the gfs is warm. It's still a great track and its not warm at all leading in. Nobody does nailbiters like the ma. Nobody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I've been waiting for days for a reality check. My piddly 420' ain't gonna do it if the gfs is right. My friends up in mt airy are planning a snow party already. Wah wah. Imho, I do think the gfs is warm. It's still a great track and its not warm at all leading in. Nobody does nailbiters like the ma. Nobody we wait for the ULL and then we flip to 1/8-1/4 viz sn....anything before that is a bonus...hopefully the JYO and OKV crew will post pics while we get puddled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I've been waiting for days for a reality check. My piddly 420' ain't gonna do it if the gfs is right. My friends up in mt airy are planning a snow party already. Wah wah. Imho, I do think the gfs is warm. It's still a great track and its not warm at all leading in. Nobody does nailbiters like the ma. Nobody Well, the 18Z GFS looks pretty tragic for some northeast of us too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well, the 18Z GFS looks pretty tragic for some northeast of us too: Almost 2" of ice?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Sucks having to wait till 820ish for the 21z SREFs... I firmly believe they and the 0z NAM will hold the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Although, did they all decide that it was going to be snow based on the run anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Almost 2" of ice?? No... sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If it busts, I will never again track any storm after Presidents Day.... But got to remember that this sort of nervousness happens before every storm after one bad model run. Got to stay positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No... sleet I need to learn to read better either way now THAT is slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Almost 2" of ice?? Sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Saw this on Facebook. It is from a PA news station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 2/11/06, 3/1/09/, 1/26/11.....this is what happens...we get suicidal and then we get pummeled...at midnight on March 2nd 2009 I had a dusting and it had been snowing steady for 6-7 hours...then around 2 or 3 am...crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If it busts, I will never again track any storm after Presidents Day.... But got to remember that this sort of nervousness happens before every storm after one bad model run. Got to stay positive. a storm cant bust imo until we are 24 hours in...so tonight's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 2/11/06, 3/1/09/, 1/26/11.....this is what happens...we get suicidal and then we get pummeled...at midnight on March 2nd 2009 I had a dusting and it had been snowing steady for 6-7 hours...then around 2 or 3 am...crushed Weren't we debating temps for 1/26/11 even up to right before it started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Weren't we debating temps for 1/26/11 even up to right before it started? yes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Lets do a contest on high temp tomorrow Better yet, how about a contest to see who jumps off the cliff first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Weren't we debating temps for 1/26/11 even up to right before it started? Everyone was nervous until the flip actually happened. Here's what I don't understand-- why do we (me included) just jump to one discrete solution at a time? Like, instead of blending the model data, we post like we're assuming one run of the one model must be very close to being verbatim correct until one run of the next model comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Saw this on Facebook. It is from a PA news station. Well if you are gonna go all out, go big.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Water temps at OC are 39.....same for Ches bay...not great but could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Everyone was nervous until the flip actually happened. Here's what I don't understand-- why do we (me included) just jump to one discrete solution at a time? Like, instead of blending the model data, we post like we're assuming one run of the one model must be very close to being verbatim correct until one run of the next model comes out. Unfortunately, we come out on the losing end of marginal storm way more than the other way around. Our paranoia is kinda justified. Haven't seen winwxluvr complain about the gfs though... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Justin Berk's first call Actually looks very reasonable to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Berk is bullish on the 6-10 line with it running down 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Berk is bullish on the 6-10 line with it running down 95. I think I-95 can get 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Topper Shutt is really bullish as well. Odd. He may be the most bullish local met down here. 6-9 for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Berk is bullish on the 6-10 line with it running down 95. I think that map is actually pretty reasonable. I'd be a little bolder out in VA, but he cares more about MD anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT, someone called WxSynopsis and The Faithful are hatin' on us american weenie forum MORONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This new Bob Ryan ABC 7 video timeline and forecast seems reasonable. Says 3 to 6 for DC and "much much more" out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skipper Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT, someone called WxSynopsis and The Faithful are hatin' on us american weenie forum MORONS. What's the consensus with those clowns? That we are too bullish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That facebook page has more drama than a full season of keeping up with the kardasians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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