Herb@MAWS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 6:57 PM, columbiawx said: We have about 250' of elevation over BWI and are about 10 miles further from the bay. In really marginal set ups like this, I think desperately hope those variables matter. Yes, I've observed drastic difference after a storm leaving Columbia and heading east on Route 100 toward BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just got a call from BGE. Summary: "take cover here comes the snow and don't blame us if your power goes out" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 7:05 PM, mattie g said: I'm not going to be disingenuous and claim that I'll be happy with 3-5" of snow from this thing. Because I won't. only becuase everyone thought they would get much more....which is still on the table btw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 If you've lived in your location for 5 years or more you can just go by memory. Marginal temp events usually follow the same spread on accums. My location will almost always fall in between dc/pg obs and germantown/damascus obs. If I'm off and on mix then dc is usually all rain while upper moco is all snow. With that being said, my call of 6-8 looks totally doable. I'd be more surprised with 5 than I would with 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 7:05 PM, mattie g said: I'm not going to be disingenuous and claim that I'll be happy with 3-5" of snow from this thing. Because I won't. Same here. I want no less than 6" from this. A few inches of scattered slop doesn't do anything for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 7:07 PM, nj2va said: It's a good thing that's currently not supported. But it's got bust potential written all over it. On 3/5/2013 at 7:11 PM, blizzardmeiser said: only becuase everyone thought they would get much more....which is still on the table btw! And it's got overperformer potential written all over it, too. On 3/5/2013 at 7:12 PM, Fozz said: Same here. I want no less than 6" from this. A few inches of scattered slop doesn't do anything for me. I know people will say that we should be realistic and that climo doesn't support a big snow around now, but we've had some damn good model agreement on this thing for some time (especially the American models), and I don't want to be Lucy'd. But, of course it'll all be melted in a couple days and be but a memory, so if we bust we won't fret over it for too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 6:29 PM, yoda said: I see warnings (4 to 7) in I-95 corridor... S MD (sorry Wes) WWA 3 to 5 The counties that go to a WWA may hold the WS Watch for tomorrow evening/night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baldereagle Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 7:12 PM, Fozz said: Same here. I want no less than 6" from this. A few inches of scattered slop doesn't do anything for me. Petulance will get you rain, or snain, to go with your whine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I bet you get over 6" fozz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 7:36 PM, sbos_wx said: I bet you get over 6" fozz Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Cities got upgraded to warnings for 4-8". Immediately east of DC got WWAs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 My temperature is 51 degrees. 1. I am gonna enjoy my golf game this afternoon, and 2. I am really enthusiastic about my upcoming cartop coating of rain. One thing I am very nervous about is the stark fact that I am only a few scant miles from the WWAs. I'd feel better if I was in Leesburg, but it is what it is. I'm very close to the Potomac River only 70 feet above the beautiful blue Atlantic lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT has to issue another "Why i busted post" on his facebook page. He has to do this for like 90% of storms he forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 7:52 PM, weathercoins said: Cities got upgraded to warnings for 4-8". Immediately east of DC got WWAs. And I fully expect to wake up tomorrow and see the WWA canceled in lieu of 35 and rain all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Q: isn't the storm total map the graphical representation of what drives the point forecast? So it's not exactly accurate to say it's auto-generated -- forecasters do the zones, the mediating points are interpolated automatically. So there's some margin of error but it's not like data is dumped in and outputted blindly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joc111 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 My warning may say 4-8", but whoa..... 7-DAY FORECASTTonight Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 2am. Low around 32. East wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Wednesday Snow. High near 34. Breezy, with a northeast wind 18 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow, mainly before 3am. Low around 30. Blustery, with a north wind around 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 8:02 PM, Fozz said: My warning may say 4-8", but whoa..... 7-DAY FORECAST Tonight Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 2am. Low around 32. East wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Wednesday Snow. High near 34. Breezy, with a northeast wind 18 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow, mainly before 3am. Low around 30. Blustery, with a north wind around 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Covering tracks. Nice to think they could see a high end surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Good lord the 18z nam deserves a scott coastalwx wheeeeeeeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 8:03 PM, sbos_wx said: Covering tracks. Nice to think they could see a high end surprise I'm not sure I buy the Wednesday night thing, but that would rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 AACo WWA but my point forecast is for 6-11". Usually we overperform when NWS tries to hedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol @ the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Don't freak out too much about point forecast details-- the zone forecast is the product that someone has actually thought about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And ofcourse, PG is fringed.. I so wish I was back home for this storm. Hopefully the increased predicted precip compensates for the initial rain that I inevitably will experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 8:05 PM, mdhokie said: AACo WWA but my point forecast is for 6-11". Usually we overperform when NWS tries to hedge. I think NWS should split Northern AA Co/ Southern AA Co- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 On 3/5/2013 at 8:12 PM, weatherwonder said: I think NWS should split Northern AA Co/ Southern AA Co- If they do that, they better split PG county too, the wraparound under DC is very different than NE of DC. Oxon Hill vs. Greenbelt have very different weather, especially in storms like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm all in for the NAM. yes, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The map has mysteriously disappeared from the front page of the LWXsite... Edit: It's back now. Phew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 BGE is sending out warnings to customers regarding losing power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I don't envy the pros on this one. Model consensus ain't exactly there and the area is completely divided. You'd literally almost need a neighborhood by neighborhood forecast towards the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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