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March 6th Storm Banter Thread


Bob Chill

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Actually, all I will have to do to defend DCA will be to find my flamethrower at this rate.

But WHERE did I put it???

Seriously, I don't think DCA will get three frozen inches.

IAD may be another matter entirely.

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that actually sounds good, aside from the tornado watch.  after this storm, i'm ready for warm weather.

 

I'm big on 70-78 and low humidity. Anything above that and my house starts to bake. Humidity makes it even worse. Florida can keep the moisture. 

But yes, I am almost ready for some nice weather...just give me my 90 inches first ;)

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I'm big on 70-78 and low humidity. Anything above that and my house starts to bake. Humidity makes it even worse. Florida can keep the moisture. 

But yes, I am almost ready for some nice weather...just give me my 90 inches first ;)

 

this winter has been a total buzzkill.  even if we get 8 inches i'm not going to forgive mother nature for this.  i'm kidding, but seriously, winter is just too much work sometimes.  my state of mind improves in the spring, no question about it.

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gfs ~ 27km

nam ~ 12 km

ecmwf ~ 17km (I think)

nam-conus-nest ~ 4 km

SREF members ~ 18-22 km

 

This is just spatial resolution.....they all use very different vertical coordinates as well.  Also, the notion that you shouldn't use a global model to aid in the short term is preposterous.  How can a model be any good at 3-5 days if it sucks in the 0-24h range?

 

Sorry, may have worded that wrong.  Would it be better if I said that the other models should weigh more heavily?

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That'd be me.  Sorry.  Always try to keep an up-beat even keel, but it always pains the weenie in me when I have a QPF leak. 

GFS has us just over 1", Euro just under 1" and NAM near 2".  All 3 models suggest that it would be mostly if not all snow for you and I...I'm having a hard time finding agony in that...

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Im sure they will, I think they are out at 2:20.

When is next NAM again? Maybe we'll all get another serious NAM pummeling.  Would

 

GFS has us just over 1", Euro just under 1" and NAM near 2".  All 3 models suggest that it would be mostly if not all snow for you and I...I'm having a hard time finding agony in that...

Wheeeeeeew.  Ok good.  Guess I should know better to look at the finite details a bit more.  I always think BWI first for me, but in essence it's still different here.  Thanks my friend.  Cheers!

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Sorry, may have worded that wrong.  Would it be better if I said that the other models should weigh more heavily?

I stand by my previous statement about using globals in the short term.  However, you also can/should include the higher resolution/more frequently updating models when moving into shorter ranges.  They certainly can potentially aid in resolving small scale details (banding, convection), regional effects (cold pooling), etc. 

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When is next NAM again? Maybe we'll all get another serious NAM pummeling.  Would

 

Wheeeeeeew.  Ok good.  Guess I should know better to look at the finite details a bit more.  I always think BWI first for me, but in essence it's still different here.  Thanks my friend.  Cheers!

2:45

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Wheeeeeeew.  Ok good.  Guess I should know better to look at the finite details a bit more.  I always think BWI first for me, but in essence it's still different here.  Thanks my friend.  Cheers!

 

We have about 250' of elevation over BWI and are about 10 miles further from the bay. In really marginal set ups like this, I think desperately hope those variables matter. 

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We have about 250' of elevation over BWI and are about 10 miles further from the bay. In really marginal set ups like this, I think desperately hope those variables matter. 

Every foot of elevation counts in these super tight calls I'm sure.

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