TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 could be. i'll probably just stick with my 5" benchmark unless something looks amazing soon. i kinda doubt 10 but maybe someone in a high spot gets banded for a while. (im really only talking dc here) but when you got to 10-15 the forecast becomes considerably more iffy imo. It could bust either way, and for the purpose of being cautious a wsw should go up for safety of the public. There's always the chance it does dump. 2.0" qpf of paste is a hazard filled storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can I ask when you think the precip might start in earnest tonight in Montgomery County this evening? I'm really sorry for the IMBY but I'm supposed to be driving throughout the county tonight for an elderly family member... up until about 10:30 or so. I think you'll probably be ok until that time. I think by midnight it should be starting to snow. Roads will probably be fine either way for the start at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It feels warm out there. Would never know a snowstorm is coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Great disco is the storm thread this morning without a bunch of thoughtless posts. I'm sure that trend will reverse when the euro smokes us....or whiffs us You said it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Serious bidness question: Should someone in particular start the obs thread? Like someone with a proven track record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 for DC 2-3" of snow followed by driving rain followed by 2-3" of snow? Reasonable. I think I put down 5.5 on our contest - all science behind that one I just hope we trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Great disco is the storm thread this morning without a bunch of thoughtless posts. I'm sure that trend will reverse when the euro smokes us....or whiffs us Started off super shaky earlier in the AM but was certainly correct later on. I'm guessing there were quite a few 5 posts initiated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 for DC 2-3" of snow followed by driving rain followed by 2-3" of snow? Change "driving rain" to "snow melting on contact and rain/snow mix" and I think it's very possible. Even with the GFS soundings, I don't think anyone on I-95 is going to get straight up heavy rain. Wes? Maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 for DC 2-3" of snow followed by driving rain followed by 2-3" of snow? So final result of 2-3" in the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think the chance for more rain and just slop has increased significantly based on what is occurring now. The is only so much that cold air aloft can do for you when the day of the start of the event the temps are in a 45-49 range and the clouds increase after the heating max has occurred and you don't radiate out post sunset. Based on every analog set up I have ever observed in an event like this DCA has Never received more than 4" accumulation and will not this time either. The laying down of snow cover before 9am now seem less likely than before, probably 50/50 right now, and I believe getting that snow cover is critical to significant accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm still at 37. But if OKV is that high, I should probably expect a spike the next few hours. 36 at HGR, 40 at MRB at the top of the hour. I'm 44 with an 18 DP...Not concerned about temps. Clouds on the horizon to the west. 12 hours from now should look completely different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 for DC 2-3" of snow followed by driving rain followed by 2-3" of snow? If we get heavy driving rain I'm going to break things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If we get heavy driving rain I'm going to break things wasnt the whole goal to get heavy precip. There should be no heavy rain. Its either Moderate/Heavy snow or light/rain drizzle imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The laying down of snow cover before 9am now seem less likely than before, probably 50/50 right now, and I believe getting that snow cover is critical to significant accumulation. I think most of us will break the 2" before dawn. Probably not DCA, but most of the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Got word that even if the Fed closes, the Smithsonian is staying open. Awesome for downtown museums, but not out here at the Hazy Center, in Dulles' microclimate, that's kind of a dumb idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think the chance for more rain and just slop has increased significantly based on what is occurring now. The is only so much that cold air aloft can do for you when the day of the start of the event the temps are in a 45-49 range and the clouds increase after the heating max has occurred and you don't radiate out post sunset. Based on every analog set up I have ever observed in an event like this DCA has Never received more than 4" accumulation and will not this time either. The laying down of snow cover before 9am now seem less likely than before, probably 50/50 right now, and I believe getting that snow cover is critical to significant accumulation. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What? Corn dust, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 wasnt the whole goal to get heavy precip. There should be no heavy rain. Its either Moderate/Heavy snow or light/rain drizzle imo Its funny how weenies always get attacked for saying "the storm will make its own cold air," but that's exactly what we're counting on this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm probably going to lose big in the contest because I entered my guess after the 18z GFS from last night. I'm a modelologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I honestly don't see heavy rain at all for the cities on West. You would have to take the soundings from the worst run of the gfs and still challenge them. Ratios and stickage is a whole nuther disco though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm surprised CWG didn't scale back their forecast totals in that recent update. Still has 6-12+" for everyone west of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm surprised CWG didn't scale back their forecast totals in that recent update. Still has 6-12+" for everyone west of I-95. Have they published their new update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Have they published their new update? Yeah it took a little while but it remains pretty much unchanged http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/high-impact-heavy-snowstorm-to-hammer-washington-dc-area-tonight-and-wednesday/2013/03/05/eb0f4978-85a2-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394_blog.html#pagebreak Honestly, being north of Baltimore, I expect 4-7" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Have they published their new update? yup http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/high-impact-heavy-snowstorm-to-hammer-washington-dc-area-tonight-and-wednesday/2013/03/05/eb0f4978-85a2-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394_blog.html#comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Where I-64 intersects Skyline Drive/Blue Ridge Pwky. outside of Waynesboro is about 1800 in elevation, according to Google Maps. There are a a bunch of motels around there IIRC. I was tempted to drive down but can't get away. Hoping my 350' in Tenlytown will see me to at least a criteria storm. At least I can work at home tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's 46 and sunny in Bumsville, Loudon County! Oh no!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Still can't shake the feeling that those folks to the east of DC (Annapolis and southern Anne Arundel County) will be shafted on this one. Seasonal trends how they are. Fact is, it just isn't going to be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 State College went WS Warning for counties bordering MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Got word that even if the Fed closes, the Smithsonian is staying open. Awesome for downtown museums, but not out here at the Hazy Center, in Dulles' microclimate, that's kind of a dumb idea. I see them going with the Liberal Leave policy. Fed usually only closes if they getl or are expecting, 8 inches or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 State College went WS Warning for counties bordering MD. 5-8" for York and Lancaster counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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