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March 6th Storm Banter Thread


Bob Chill

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Good luck with 15-20 in DC proper. Remember there will be worse ratios than normal.

I realize that ... thats why I plugged in 8:1 ratios and that resulted in 15 inches. That's why I gave a range.

Also, the 20 inches comes from selecting the option to use the max temperature in the profile for each hour to set the ratios.

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First rule of forecasting is not to predict a record event unless you're totally positive. I can't take anyone with 10"+ as a low number for DC seriously sorry.

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Now that we have the latest GFS and its almost now-casting time, any predictions on the time of changeover (or at least reported weenie hallucinations) for the I-95 corridor?  My guess is I spend all night staring at rain in my street light then see first flakes around the time I get to work (9a).   

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Overnight tonight is certainly looking better than it did a day or two ago.  Should start as snow for most of us and accumulate overnight.  It's after dawn (and maybe closer to noon) that things might get dicey if the GFS is right.  Cue Ian with a sun angle trademark...

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Overnight tonight is certainly looking better than it did a day or two ago.  Should start as snow for most of us and accumulate overnight.  It's after dawn (and maybe closer to noon) that things might get dicey if the GFS is right.  Cue Ian with a sun angle trademark...

 

Can I ask when you think the precip might start in earnest tonight in Montgomery County?

 

I'm really sorry for the IMBY but I'm supposed to be driving throughout the county tonight for an elderly family member... up until about 10:30 or so.

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5-10" seems very good guess for dc/bwi

 

could be. i'll probably just stick with my 5" benchmark unless something looks amazing soon. i kinda doubt 10 but maybe someone in a high spot gets banded for a while. (im really only talking dc here)

 

but when you got to 10-15 the forecast becomes considerably more iffy imo.

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