eurojosh Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Starting to wonder if 3-6" for my area would be optimistic. For some reason, when I click on your location it takes me to the weather for central france (currently 54 and sunny in case you were wondering) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Good luck with 15-20 in DC proper. Remember there will be worse ratios than normal. I realize that ... thats why I plugged in 8:1 ratios and that resulted in 15 inches. That's why I gave a range. Also, the 20 inches comes from selecting the option to use the max temperature in the profile for each hour to set the ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Soundings don't look that bad at 27h and 30h. Have to have a met decide if that's wet snow or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just about every model run the past two days has dropped a foot here. 11.9" would put me right at climo for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Front Royal will do well. And he can go up on Skyline Drive Thursday morning for a real treat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I want to see my county in pink on the map NOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 For some reason, when I click on your location it takes me to the weather for central france (currently 54 and sunny in case you were wondering) It's a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 First rule of forecasting is not to predict a record event unless you're totally positive. I can't take anyone with 10"+ as a low number for DC seriously sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 A. Gets ugly fast when models disagree. B. How much credence do you give the GFS at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ok snow we take the all snow NAM temps and blend that with the mostly wet snow GFS temps. I'm thinking 4-8 is the right call for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I want to see my county in pink on the map NOW NAM had me at like 14", and the GFS likes about 8". I'm OK with that, even though it probably means 4" in reality. * I'm not actually OK with 4" at this point, but 8-14" of model snow is pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm starting to type stuff that I'm pretty sure only makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And how ugly is my sig? There's a reason I block everyone else's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Almost 40 in FDK already . Gambrill (1700') is at 32. My station is at a depressing 42.8 right now. My silver lining is that the dewpoint is only 15, so we should cool off quickly tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 My station is at a depressing 42.8 right now. My silver lining is that the dewpoint is only 15, so we should cool off quickly tonight Yeah. Was wondering about that. Sinfully nice outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Latest hourly obs from the big three: BWI: 41/15 IAD: 44/18 DCA: 45/18 With those low dews, we should cool rather quickly later this afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It certainly is warm out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Areas in Winchester in the mid-upper 40's too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I can always count on cooling pretty quickly here. And now I def hugging whatever model has the best temp profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skipper Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Doesn't the GFS have a drier bias anywhere north of where it predicts a higher qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Areas in Winchester in the mid-upper 40's too... I'm still at 37. But if OKV is that high, I should probably expect a spike the next few hours. 36 at HGR, 40 at MRB at the top of the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'll lighten the mood after the gfs stole some of the namshow, It's RAP time! 18hr sim from 14z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 First rule of forecasting is not to predict a record event unless you're totally positive. I can't take anyone with 10"+ as a low number for DC seriously sorry. 5-10" seems very good guess for dc/bwi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Now that we have the latest GFS and its almost now-casting time, any predictions on the time of changeover (or at least reported weenie hallucinations) for the I-95 corridor? My guess is I spend all night staring at rain in my street light then see first flakes around the time I get to work (9a). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Overnight tonight is certainly looking better than it did a day or two ago. Should start as snow for most of us and accumulate overnight. It's after dawn (and maybe closer to noon) that things might get dicey if the GFS is right. Cue Ian with a sun angle trademark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Overnight tonight is certainly looking better than it did a day or two ago. Should start as snow for most of us and accumulate overnight. It's after dawn (and maybe closer to noon) that things might get dicey if the GFS is right. Cue Ian with a sun angle trademark... Can I ask when you think the precip might start in earnest tonight in Montgomery County? I'm really sorry for the IMBY but I'm supposed to be driving throughout the county tonight for an elderly family member... up until about 10:30 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Dunno about the GFS. Should stop worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 5-10" seems very good guess for dc/bwi could be. i'll probably just stick with my 5" benchmark unless something looks amazing soon. i kinda doubt 10 but maybe someone in a high spot gets banded for a while. (im really only talking dc here) but when you got to 10-15 the forecast becomes considerably more iffy imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You would think they would have to make a decision by the 3 PM package? Let it go. Warnings don't make it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Great disco is the storm thread this morning without a bunch of thoughtless posts. I'm sure that trend will reverse when the euro smokes us....or whiffs us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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