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March 6th Storm Banter Thread


Bob Chill

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I wish someone would post solid comparative analysis as to why the nam and gfs differ so much with thermal profile. That is the only question that needs to answered. I'm pretty sure the answer isn't slower faster norther souther dryer wetter easter wester

My guess is the strength of the surface low... the GFS features a 990 MB Low Pressure at the mouth of the Chesapeake... looks like it is pushing a lot of air in from the east... NAM is 1003 MB in the same spot..I am not a forecaster or anything... this is just an observation/ guess... 

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I'm bummed Roanoke isn't as juiced as 2 days ago, but I'll take 2-4" Imby. Hope you DC and nwva folks enjoy!

 

I hope they do well too. I'm not a fan of the snow pissing contests.

 

I must admit, though, that it is difficult to sit down here as yet another opportunity slips away. RIC airport has not received more than 14" from a single storm since 1983 (that is including accurate coop measurements) - what a stretch of futility.

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Just an odd observation ... our cats are keeping very close to the house tonight.  Last time they did that was Feb 2010.

 

Interesting you mention this - 

On my way home from work into the neighborhood there were large clusters of deer in certain front yards. I mean deer are not unusual - but they way they were grouped was. 

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It's probably related to how much the GooFuS amps up the storm more than the NAM

 

Since you were up in Boston for the blizzard, can you give some info if it did the same with that (obviously a different system, though) and corrected itself?  

 

I mean I guess we'll soon find out if the GFS continues warmer than the NAM (and Euro).  

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so I didn't have time to look in depth at the 18z runs, but based on what I heard people saying, the low is stronger and slightly further inland. The tighter gradient is causing a more easterly fetch, which is creating a shallow warm layer. I'm not sure if I fully buy the idea that the low has to stay weak for it to stay cold though. I do honestly feel like all the models at this point (sans probably the Euro) are having some wacky **** going on with how they are developing the banding. Based on sim radars, the deform axis seems to move pretty drastically and redevelop over a short time span, which I think is highly unlikely. My theory is the dynamics in this are so off the charts models are just having a hard time with the intricacies

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I turned all my co-workers (other scientists/science teachers) onto CWG. They were all talking about the live-blog today.... I still can't really believe you'd all "run" to that social media gimmick, but of course it makes sense and is a service for followers during the prime-time hours. 

 

I do wonder, though, if its a good thing that average non-weather weenies are now briefed on every indivdiual model run. You will be shockedf how many just see one model or blog posting -- such as the NAM -- and then go around assuming all day, and telling others, that 2 feet of snow is likely.  Makes it far easier for wild rumors to spread, storms to be blown out of proportions, and charges of "bust" to fly. Curious what others think about this. Is it s a good thing to have individual model runs now so public?

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Since you were up in Boston for the blizzard, can you give some info if it did the same with that (obviously a different system, though) and corrected itself?  

 

I mean I guess we'll soon find out if the GFS continues warmer than the NAM (and Euro).  

The GFS was the southern outlier in that system. The EURO was banging a huge storm hard for days before. GFS was the only concern and wrinkle until it finally gave into all of the other models last minute. Not the same situation, but GFS did cave.

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I do wonder, though, if its a good thing that average non-weather weenies are now briefed on every indivdiual model run. You will be shockedf how many just see one model or blog posting -- such as the NAM -- and then go around assuming all day, and telling others, that 2 feet of snow is likely.  Makes it far easier for wild rumors to spread, storms to be blown out of proportions, and charges of "bust" to fly. Curious what others think about this. Is it s a good thing to have individual model runs now so public?

Oh I definitely sent the NAM clown to all my coworkers last night.... Without a doubt that is how the rumors get started!

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The GFS was the southern outlier in that system. The EURO was banging a huge storm hard for days before. GFS was the only concern and wrinkle until it finally gave into all of the other models last minute. Not the same situation, but GFS did cave.

 

Interesting...thanks for the info and clarification. 

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Wish I could. My dad's office is in Fairfax and he'll be up there for a few days this week. Too bad I have other commitments.

 

Good news is I'll be off to a four-year school this fall which could put me anywhere from Fredericksburg to Blacksburg. Basically, more snow any way you look at it.

 

As a former hokie, I'd be remiss not to plug in Virginia Tech, and as a former Fredericksburg resident...tech >> Mary Wash (edit: depending on what you want to do). However, that said...Blacksburg tends to be a snow anus getting cold/freezing rains when the surrounding mountains get all snow. Come summer you get some decent boomers where Fredericksburg tends to get split a lot and only gets snow marginally more than Richmond.

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I love these kinds of posts. No sarcasm. There is always little odd events that happen before big storms, like there is a bigger power at work.

I think I'd have people agree when I say that many animals simply know when things like this are happening. It is interesting to say the least.

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