The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II

[nflwxman]

And the UKMET is basically in the same place as it was previously. In fact, its area of lowest pressure now extends further north.

I think there needs to be Some clarity here. There is the euro camp and the GFS camp. Apparently the UKMet and GGEM are leaning more towards the euro camp with SLP track.

[EastCoast NPZ]

OKV:

 

WED 00Z 06-MAR  -0.2    -3.3    0.09         WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.2    -3.4    0.44      WED 12Z 06-MAR  -0.5    -3.3    0.37      WED 18Z 06-MAR   0.5    -4.2    0.64      THU 00Z 07-MAR   0.8    -4.9    0.26  Now that's purdy      

Thank you.  Purdy indeed.

[JMU2004]

I think there needs to be Some clarity here. There is the euro camp and the GFS camp. Apparently the UKMet and GGEM are leaning more towards the euro camp with SLP track.

 

Thanks for clarifying my statement.

[EasternUSWX]

[WxUSAF]

I don't know where the GGEM was before, but at this resolution it looks pretty darn close to the GFS in low placement.  Deform band might be a smidge south of where the GFS placed it.  

[Buddy1987]

I have never been more confused by a storm for southern VA. Virtually everyone has a different story for how this will play out here. In just the past 10 minutes I've heard and seen everything from rain to 8 inches of snow to ice to sleet to rain ending as snow to a dusting of snow to flurries....

Yea I agree man I am completely lost. There's no mets or anyone talking about it in the southeastern thread because everyone lives in NC and SC and then in the MA thread everyone is north of us. Can anyone give us a legit consensus for southern va?

[Ji]

not sure how anyone who can read a map can say GGEM is in euro camp

[snowfan]

pretty good map imo

I'd actually bring the 6-9 and 3-6 areas SE a tad.

[stormtracker]

pretty good map imo

meh. I'd bring the lines south by about 25 miles

[Ian]

meh. I'd bring the lines south by about 25 miles

 

who knows. that gradient could be a big pain. not sure i'd call for 6+ at DCA yet.

[WxUSAF]

That map is decent IMO, but I think in this situation, you've got to go with broader ranges to account for:

1. Possibility of mixing (which I had discounted prior to the 12z GFS for most people who are near and N/W of 95)

2.  Convective banding

 

I told friends 4-16" for DC, Bmore and the Bmore 'burbs and 6-20" for the far western DC 'burbs out toward the Blue Ridge and Shenandoah.  If I made a map, I'd throw in a category or two more to divide that up, but I could see someone to the southeast of the expected "jackpot" zone cashing in with a convective band, and someone a bit farther northwest losing some snow to a bit of mixing.  

[SeVa]

I have never been more confused by a storm for southern VA. Virtually everyone has a different story for how this will play out here. In just the past 10 minutes I've heard and seen everything from rain to 8 inches of snow to ice to sleet to rain ending as snow to a dusting of snow to flurries....

If NoVa is potentially having issues with mixing, I think it is safe to assume that we are just plain rain.

[stormtracker]

That map is decent IMO, but I think in this situation, you've got to go with broader ranges to account for:

1. Possibility of mixing (which I had discounted prior to the 12z GFS for most people who are near and N/W of 95)

2.  Convective banding

 

I told friends 4-16" for DC, Bmore and the Bmore 'burbs and 6-20" for the far western DC 'burbs out toward the Blue Ridge and Shenandoah.  If I made a map, I'd throw in a category or two more to divide that up, but I could see someone to the southeast of the expected "jackpot" zone cashing in with a convective band, and someone a bit farther northwest losing some snow to a bit of mixing.  

I was thinking 4-8 for DC and up by Gaithersburg N and W 8-14

[dsnowman]

It looks like the GFS jogged north a little from its previous run (allowing some warmer air to filter in), something we joked about last night. In short, I see the NAM on target for a DC bullseye, with the GFS slight north and the EURO slightly south. If we take a blend, we should be fine.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I think there needs to be Some clarity here. There is the euro camp and the GFS camp. Apparently the UKMet and GGEM are leaning more towards the euro camp with SLP track.

Oh, the clarity is very clear.  There's a lot of wishcasting going on.  To say those models went south is a dubious statement at best.

[40/70 Benchmark]

just fascinated by the Boston GFS/Euro war? How would you like to be a forecaster there where one model gives you 2-3 foot and euro gives you a dusting

I think the EURO will cave at 12z, but do think the GFS is too amped.

We should se ea storm, though.

[usedtobe]

pretty good map imo

That's as good a map as any. 

[WxUSAF]

I was thinking 4-8 for DC and up by Gaithersburg N and W 8-14

Until the Euro takes this into Columbia, SC, in 30 minutes, I think that's a good starting point.  I'd say probably 4-8" also for Baltimore and points S/E of 95 and 6-14" or 8-14" for points N/W of 95 if I had to pin it down to a narrower range.  Still would not be surprised in the least if someone in central MD gets 16" or a bit more if they get a lucky convective band.  Similarly with the 20" range out toward the Blue Ridge.  

 

[Sparky]

That map is decent IMO, but I think in this situation, you've got to go with broader ranges to account for:

1. Possibility of mixing (which I had discounted prior to the 12z GFS for most people who are near and N/W of 95)

2.  Convective banding

 

I told friends 4-16" for DC, Bmore and the Bmore 'burbs and 6-20" for the far western DC 'burbs out toward the Blue Ridge and Shenandoah.  If I made a map, I'd throw in a category or two more to divide that up, but I could see someone to the southeast of the expected "jackpot" zone cashing in with a convective band, and someone a bit farther northwest losing some snow to a bit of mixing.  

I told friends 9-12 inches for Carroll County, cutting those numbers in half in downtown Baltimore and perhaps even a bit llower downtown DC.

[Deck Pic]

JMA - 1.25" contour straight west to east through IAD and DCA

[Terpeast]

Hmm, now after the 12z GFS, my bullish guess might be in trouble.  I'm glad I didn't fly up for this... wanna save it for a bona fide blizzard with 30" totals.  Maybe next year?

 

Anyway, back on topic, I'm with WxUSAF on wide ranges of snow totals due to melting/mixing issues.  I wouldn't go as low as 3-6" for downtown DC (except maybe DCA) because QPF is still too impressive.  

[Eskimo Joe]

NCEP Diagnostic Disco from Paul Kocin.  Read it and weep folks:

 

 

 

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1110 AM EST MON MAR 04 2013VALID MAR 04/1200 UTC THRU MAR 08/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST......12Z NAM EVALUATION...MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS WILL BE DESCRIBED UNDER THE RELEVANTSYSTEM HEADING...STAGNANT UPR CYCLONE LINGERING ACRS COASTAL UPR NEW ENGLAND...THE UPPER LOW EAST OF MAINE BY MONDAY EVENING IS FINALLY FORECASTTO MOVE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH IT LEAVES BEHIND A WEAKDISTURBANCE OVER NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE 12Z NAM HASSOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS BUT INGENERAL IS WITHIN A REASONABLE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS....PAIR OF DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ANDSWRN U.S......EVENTUAL MERGER AND AMPLIFICATION OVER THE MIDWEST LEADING TO SSIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE LOWER OHIO/UPPER TENNESSEEVALLEY  TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS COMPLEXSYSTEM HAVE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE SYSTEMATICMODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM CAMP AND THE ECMWF/UKMETCAMP.  THE NCEP MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF ENSEMBLES/NAM/GFS/GEFS ARE SYSTEMATICALLY FARTHER NORTH THAN WITH THE UPPER LOW STARTINGON TUESDAY OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INCREASING ONWEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 09ZSREF MEAN/06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH REGARD TOSPEED APPEARS PRETTY UNIFORM THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ANDEVENING WHEN THE SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE EAST COAST.OVERNIGHT...THE 00Z UKMET TRENDED NORTH FROM EARLIER RUNS ANDAPPEARED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WHEREAS EARLIER ITWAS MORE OF A SOUTHERN OUTLIER. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWFHAVE INDICATED A TENDENCY FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHERNORTH AND FASTER AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE EASTCOAST.  THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE GFS THROUGH 6Z HAVE ALSO BEEN VERYSTABLE...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ALSOCONTINUING.IN THE LAST COUPLE RUNS...THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD ONCETHE CYCLONE IS EAST OF THE COAST...ALLOWING SNOW TO REACHNORTHWARD INTO LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SOMETHINGTHAT THE RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THEUKMET DOES...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN DO NOT.  THE NAM500 MB LOW IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REASONABLE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONSSHOWN BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT THE SURFACE LOW IS SLIGHTLYFARTHER NORTH OF THE OTHER SOLUTIONS AND CLOSER TO THE COAST BYWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAN THE EARLIER OPERATIONAL RUNS AS WELL ASTHE ENSEMBLE MEANS...EXCEPT FOR THE 09Z SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHERETHE SURFACE LOWS ARE NEARLY EXACT....UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIABY TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF THE TROUGH IS MAINTAINED BY THE 00ZECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/06Z GEFS MEAN/ AND THE 09Z SREFMEAN THROUGHTHURSDAY...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES LEADING UP TO THAT TIME. THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MEANS ONWEDNESDAY WITH AN ODD 500 MB FEATURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIAWEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT STARTS TO DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW BY THURSDAYEVENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THAT IS ALSO DEMONSTRATED BY THE00Z UKMET BUT THE OTHER MODELS APPEAR TO KEEP THE TROUGH AN OPENSYSTEM....UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZING OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVINGTOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY...THE OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NORTH OFMINNESOTA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THAT MAINTAINS ITSELF THROUGHWEDNESDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANSMAINTAIN THE SYSTEM INTO THURSDAY WHERE THE SREF/GEFS DO NOT. THE00Z ECMWF AND THE 06Z GFS ALSO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THEFORECAST BUT THE 12Z NAM MOSTLY LOSES THE FEATURE BY THURSDAYMORNING....MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...500 MB FORECASTS AT www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtmlKOCIN

[easternsnowman]

We have great mets here who have a different opinion!

[Ian]

Hmm, now after the 12z GFS, my bullish guess might be in trouble.  I'm glad I didn't fly up for this... wanna save it for a bona fide blizzard with 30" totals.  Maybe next year?

 

Anyway, back on topic, I'm with WxUSAF on wide ranges of snow totals due to melting/mixing issues.  I wouldn't go as low as 3-6" for downtown DC (except maybe DCA) because QPF is still too impressive.  

 

no offense but you should weight climo.

[mdhokie]

Why are we weeping? Nothing in Kocin's disco that hasn't been said in here already.

[Eskimo Joe]

Sterling has expanded the Winter Storm Watch to include Charles, Calvert and St. Mary's.

[stormtracker]

NCEP Diagnostic Disco from Paul Kocin.  Read it and weep folks:

I don't understand?  Why are we weeping?

[yoda]

Sterling has expanded the Winter Storm Watch to include Charles, Calvert and St. Mary's.

This action makes it sound like they are leaning toward the NAM/GFS combo... perhaps a bit more NAMish re temp profiles

[Sparky]

I don't understand?  Why are we weeping?

I don't get it either.

[J.Mike]

Sterling has expanded the Winter Storm Watch to include Charles, Calvert and St. Mary's.

Does this support a SE movement of the "jackpot" area?