Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 just fascinated by the Boston GFS/Euro war? How would you like to be a forecaster there where one model gives you 2-3 foot and euro gives you a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I mentioned it earlier in the thread the GFS seems to go through a transformation around 45 hrs that can be seen on this 7H map the dry slot nearly gets to DCA and then backs down seems that there is a warm push at that time as well http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_045_700_rh_ht.gif that was not on any of the prior runs, so I don't know if that's just a blip, wobble, or trend often play with the dry slot in the best storms. it was on our doorstep for snowmageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can anyone knowledgeable comment on this sounding? Looks marginal but I'm not an expert. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=38.807600&sounding.lon=-77.06360&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=03&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=12&fhour=48¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't think i've ever seen it lasered in like this. Even going back to the graphic I posted w/ 24-48 hours ago it's just remarkable how locked in the gfs is. GFS stole your laser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS soundings for DC look mixey/rainy at 12z Wednesday, but improve back to a snowier look at 18z Wed. Isothermal at freezing at 12z from about 880-940mb or so and then between 0-1C down to the surface. I wouldn't worry about that too much yet since we're talking about fractions of a degree and its the first run to show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 often play with the dry slot in the best storms. it was on our doorstep for snowmageddon. yeah, but in this case, because temps are so marginal, it might make the diff between all snow vs. hours of mix that kills accums (relatively speaking, of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 850's definitely warmer.....but surface looks better. DCA: WED 00Z 06-MAR 0.8 -1.7 0.10 WED 06Z 06-MAR 0.6 -0.7 0.46 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.4 -0.2 0.33 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.2 -1.8 0.48 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.4 -3.0 0.42 THU 06Z 07-MAR 0.5 -3.2 0.02 THU 12Z 07-MAR 0.1 -3.2 0.01 you have this for IAD, or better yet OKV? thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can anyone knowledgeable comment on this sounding? Looks marginal but I'm not an expert. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=38.807600&sounding.lon=-77.06360&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=03&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=12&fhour=48¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false Still snow, but a very wet melting low-ratio snow. Looks like mid/upper-levels drying out, though... moistens back in at 18z. Looks like a near-dry slot sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can anyone knowledgeable comment on this sounding? Looks marginal but I'm not an expert. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=38.807600&sounding.lon=-77.06360&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=03&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=12&fhour=48¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false Non-Dentritic wet snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Temps are crucial for the 12Z to 18Z period on Wednesday as that's when teh majority of qpf falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 yeah, but in this case, because temps are so marginal, it might make the diff between all snow vs. hours of mix that kills accums (relatively speaking, of course) im not really sweating the details, tho maybe because i know it's trickier to get double digits here than further west. if we can get ~5" that would be sweet.. anything else doubly sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 you have this for IAD, or better yet OKV? thanks. OKV: WED 00Z 06-MAR -0.2 -3.3 0.09 WED 06Z 06-MAR -1.2 -3.4 0.44 WED 12Z 06-MAR -0.5 -3.3 0.37 WED 18Z 06-MAR 0.5 -4.2 0.64 THU 00Z 07-MAR 0.8 -4.9 0.26 Now that's purdy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Non-Dentritic wet snow.. Temps are crucial for the 12Z to 18Z period on Wednesday as that's when teh majority of qpf falls. Probably right, wxmeddler. But if that sounding verifies verbatim, we're probably dealing with a RASN mix particularly for any locations east of DC. It was looking like we weren't going to have to worry about extreme heavy rates for snow to fall, but that would again be the case if the 900-sfc temps are that borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Does any of that mixing appear to get out this way or is it well to the south and east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Does any of that mixing appear to get out this way or is it well to the south and east? Carroll County north of Route 26 will be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Carroll County north of Route 26 will be all snow. Hmmm, that is sort of cutting it close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't think mixing will be an issue north and west of the I-95 and even east of there should be OK. The monsters like this mix in the usual spots. The soundings are not really that bad and precip will be ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That's snow in nearly every imaginable situation if that occurs verbatim. With full sun today, it will be interesting to see what we get to temp-wise. I think the airmass overperformed a bit on cold this weekend at least. I agree re: interesting to see where temps in the lowest layers end up today and tomorrow. In Clarksburg, it has been below freezing for 60 of the last 63 hours with only the 2pm-5pm hours above freezing at 33F, 34F and 33F yesterday. Impressive for early March. At 11:30am this morning, it's 30.6F under mostly sunny skies with an average wind of 9mph from the NNW keeping things cool and dry (DP is 18F). Right now, I just don't see a lot of opportunity for warming below 900mb northwest of town in the 30 hours leading up to the storm unless clouds are very late to build in tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Howard Bernstein's first call on WUSA9 DC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 pretty good map imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Anyone have any info on the GGEM or UKMeT not that they are as solid verification wise but nonetheless were in the more southern camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can anyone knowledgeable comment on this sounding? Looks marginal but I'm not an expert. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=38.807600&sounding.lon=-77.06360&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=03&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=12&fhour=48¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false Very very wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 UKMET and CGEM are both to the South at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 UKMET and CGEM are both to the South at 12z. GGEM looks to be right in line with GFS. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I have never been more confused by a storm for southern VA. Virtually everyone has a different story for how this will play out here. In just the past 10 minutes I've heard and seen everything from rain to 8 inches of snow to ice to sleet to rain ending as snow to a dusting of snow to flurries.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah, I would say that map looks decent, maybe a little high in downtown Baltimore, but the western suburbs look about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 UKMET and CGEM are both to the South at 12z. UKMET came north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 UKMET and CGEM are both to the South at 12z. And the UKMET is basically in the same place as it was previously. In fact, its area of lowest pressure now extends further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 UKMET and CGEM are both to the South at 12z. GGEM looked like it went up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 UKMET and CGEM are both to the South at 12z. They are south of the GFS, but both have come slightly north compared to their 00z runs. Plus, the UK has trended slightly stronger with the storm from 998mb to 996mb when it's in southeastern VA. It's also showing a more favorable solution further north too towards New England which lends a little more credit to the GFS. Honestly a middle ground between the Canadian/UKMET and GFS would be great for many in our area to have slightly colder temps and still great precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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