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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II


stormtracker

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Overall it is a wider area of precip.. little bit less.. but the 1 inch QPF boundary is pretty expansive.. pretty much whole state of MD.. with the .75 up in to south central PA... this looks fine.

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This might be a little worrisome?  Or does the GFS run too warm?

I don't believe the GFS has a warm bias in the BL like the Euro does sometimes.  Maybe chris87 or dtk can answer that more precisely.  It is a bit worrisome, but it's the first time I've seen it show the freezing level that high since I started really looking at soundings yesterday.  Have to see the skew-T in a few minutes when it comes out.  Might just be showing an isothermal layer from around 950 to the surface at around 0.5-1C.  That won't be too worrisome.  If it shows a true warm nose somewhere, that's a bit more dicey.  

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The axis of heavy precip has been almost unbelievably consistent over the last 4 runs.

This is something I commented on about a week ago.  For the last month or so, especially on the big storms, it seems the models once within about 72 hours have shown a remarkable consitency with each other and with the storms they were modeling.

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I mentioned it earlier in the thread

the GFS seems to go through a transformation around 45 hrs that can be seen on this 7H map

the dry slot nearly gets to DCA and then backs down

seems that there is a warm push at that time as well

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=700_rh_ht&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_045_700_rh_ht.gif

 

that was not on any of the prior runs, so I don't know if that's just a blip, wobble, or trend

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