SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Dang... firewx_18z_prbfrz_f18.gif I like that map! Have never seen it before, what is it based off of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18Z GFS Hr 12 IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow, i95 is the suicide line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hahaha NWS offices can't agree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Dang... firewx_18z_prbfrz_f18.gif Awesome, that's a cool map, the elevation is very apparent here. Apparently for this storm the fall line means everything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'd gladly sacrifice .50 for colder temps I'm not even afraid to say this. I think this was the deal sealer. Temps trended from ever so marginal to just good enough all day on all models. Every single thing has been good news since I woke up. I honestly think dc is mostly all snow with maybe some drizzle in a lull? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DCA ftw WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.4 -2.2 0.23 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.5 -1.9 0.44 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.3 -2.0 0.56 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.4 -2.8 0.20 THU 06Z 07-MAR 0.8 -3.1 0.06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DCA ftw WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.4 -2.2 0.23 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.5 -1.9 0.44 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.3 -2.0 0.56 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.4 -2.8 0.20 THU 06Z 07-MAR 0.8 -3.1 0.06 Can you CHO me please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hahaha NWS offices can't agree... That uses the old LWX map too, if you add in the new one its even worse. Also, LWX and Mt.Holy have an area of 2-4 lining up with 6-8 in NE Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnbomb Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm not even afraid to say this. I think this was the deal sealer. Temps trended from ever so marginal to just good enough all day on all models. Every single thing has been good news since I woke up. I honestly think dc is mostly all snow with maybe some drizzle in a lull? You shouldn't be afraid. That was a HUGE run. Went VERY much towards the NAM in subtly massive ways. My initial predic of 6plus in NW DC might just be spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 during what was supposed to be a vulnerable period, DC is ripping fatties...so much better than the Jonestown soundings of yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You shouldn't be afraid. That was a HUGE run. Went VERY much towards the NAM in subtly massive ways. My initial predic of 6plus in NW DC might just be spot on. Yes - but haven't the off runs been wetter as a whole? That being said, good to see agreement as we get ready to get the snow! Also the thermal profile improvement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 during what was supposed to be a vulnerable period, DC is ripping fatties...so much better than the Jonestown soundings of yesterday Ha. 12z is iffy. 15z is probably ok w/rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnbomb Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yes - but haven't the off runs been wetter as a whole? That being said, good to see agreement as we get ready to get the snow! You're right but I think off runs at this point are less salty than the GFS going towards a model with higher res and supposedly better in short term, not to mention just more overall model convergence considering the Euro was pretty decent with temps 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ha. 12z is iffy. 15z is probably ok w/rates. that's why I posted 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 CHO WED 00Z 06-MAR 1.9 -1.9 0.02 WED 06Z 06-MAR -0.2 -1.7 0.57 WED 12Z 06-MAR -0.4 -3.1 0.59 WED 18Z 06-MAR 0.7 -4.1 0.60 THU 00Z 07-MAR 0.6 -3.6 0.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Seems to show two precip maxes during the heavy period, one west of DC and one east of the bay Dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I also think it is plus the further north you go, the longer the skies will remain clear to partly cloudy... this will allow for more radiation cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I like that fact that the GFS has cooled each time since 6z. I'm a bit more optimistic going into tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah, that is good news. Right here the dewpoint is 14,w onder what it might be at 1,000/2,000 24ºF here in Morgantown @ 1250 ft. Blacksburg is @ ~2000 ft and quick check put it at 32ºF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 24ºF here in Morgantown @ 1250 ft. Blacksburg is @ ~2000 ft and quick check put it at 32ºF This along with very dry surface air is why about 100 people have said not to worry about temps today. But I was the same "it's gonna bust cause it's 50" poster once too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 This along with very dry surface air is why about 100 people have said not to worry about temps today. But I was the same "it's gonna bust cause it's 50" poster once too. Those people are the worst, and some show know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This along with very dry surface air is why about 100 people have said not to worry about temps today. But I was the same "it's gonna bust cause it's 50" poster once too. Personally, I still think it's wild to think that come this time tomorrow I'll be frolicking in the snow, when today I could be in shorts. Edit: Not saying it'll bust, just that it's wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Awesome, that's a cool map, the elevation is very apparent here. Apparently for this storm the fall line means everything? Parrs Ridge stands out on that map too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well, 0z is kinda it for the globals and even then it's pretty close to too late. I want to thank the mets and regulars here for such solid analysis for the last 4-5 days. It's been a wild ride. We take our hobby too seriously...lol...but it's fun and harmless so what the heck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 fwiw 18z RGEM is really wet and between 1.5-2" qpf temps are probably a hair warmer, like always, but the qpf is there so screw the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well, 0z is kinda it for the globals and even then it's pretty close to too late. I want to thank the mets and regulars here for such solid analysis for the last 4-5 days. It's been a wild ride. We take our hobby too seriously...lol...but it's fun and harmless so what the heck. Agreed. And thanks to the mods for doing a pretty darn good job at keeping the threads in line. Now delete this banter post I just made. Edit: But please don't 5 post me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 fwiw 18z RGEM is really wet and between 1.5-2" qpf temps are probably a hair warmer, like always, but the qpf is there so screw the Euro you think we are screwed east of 95? Do I need to make a road trip to howard county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 you think we are screwed east of 95? Do I need to make a road trip to howard county? it's gunna' be close I'm staying put whatever happens....happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Columbia definitely better than Pasadena IMO. Plus there's at least some small elevation difference and a bit further from the Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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