Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 geez 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 54...bright blue parked over DC/MD NW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is deepening the h5 low 51-51 as it moves slowly NE... 51 534 DM to 54 528 DM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The long duration of this storm is very impressive. Likely 30 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wes's 850 low is in a great place. I know how much he talks about the 850 low with big storms Yep, it's in a great location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM gets .29 into Philly. thats a good sign...we need Philly to get some decent qpf by Wed 1pm....let them be on the northern edge...not us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Let's lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 mitchnick what do you think about the LWX disco using I95 as the rain/snow line? I know many of our events end up that way, but it appeared that BWI soundings have suggested more of a snow than rain profile. NAM has been all snow and GFS has been the warmer of the 2 models still too early to say for certain, but if the NAM is right (and except for last night's 0Z run) it has been leading the way the way I see it, we should be mostly snow except to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 QPF at DCA 1.75"+ at 54 and more snow to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 even panel 60 looks good lol. That panel alone would of been a 1000 reply thread 2 months ago for 2-4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 QPF looks to be around 2" at DCA so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Basically 2" qpf from just north of RIC to the MD/PA border...Historic storm for VA/MD/DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 really looks like 2/6/10 to me with that total precip map (sharp cutoff), tight low, and where it exists off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 even panel 60 looks good lol. That panel alone would of been a 1000 reply thread 2 months ago for 2-4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That is the sickest 700mb deformation zone / positive mid-level frontogenesis I've seen since the 09-10 winter for you guys (duh). This +frontogen peaks over your area with a maturing/occluding cyclone. I can't wait to ride the edge of yet another significant snowstorm that misses my area! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Question: Does the NAM overdo cold air historically? I'm in SBY and until this point had dismissed this storm as a typical rain/wind nor'easter for the Eastern Shore. Now, two runs of the NAM show significant snow as this thing pulls offshore. Trying to find a skew-t for SBY, but failing. Anyone got a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 According to NAM, Boston is not out of the woods. GFS might be onto something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DC sounding @ 51. Surface @ freezing. heh. Winds ripping just off the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 even panel 60 looks good lol. That panel alone would of been a 1000 reply thread 2 months ago for 2-4 inchesMan, what a debilatating, crushing FAIL for areas just to the n of that cut off Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 composite @ 51 to go along with the sounding My analysis from here can be summed up like this (just in case you missed my avatar) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DC sounding @ 51. Surface @ freezing. heh. Winds ripping just off the surface. nam51snding.JPG That little wiggle near 750-800mb is there at 54hrs as well and looks fairly close to dry adiabatic just by eye. Suggests some convective banding. Not surprising with the crazy frontogenesis and UVVs that the NAM is suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Someone on the northern edge is going to get SMOKED. Like HM said...frontogenesis is sick and with all that moisture...WHHHEEEEEEE! For now, I like where DC metro sits overall...wiggles in storm track aside. Maybe temps are an issue at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Someone on the northern edge is going to get SMOKED. Like HM said...frontogenesis is sick and with all that moisture...WHHHEEEEEEE! For now, I like where DC metro sits overall...wiggles in storm track aside. Maybe temps are an issue at first. Northern edge, like north of DC? Near the PA border perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Someone on the northern edge is going to get SMOKED. Like HM said...frontogenesis is sick and with all that moisture...WHHHEEEEEEE! For now, I like where DC metro sits overall...wiggles in storm track aside. Maybe temps are an issue at first. ANy good frontogenesis sites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Someone on the northern edge is going to get SMOKED. Like HM said...frontogenesis is sick and with all that moisture...WHHHEEEEEEE! For now, I like where DC metro sits overall...wiggles in storm track aside. Maybe temps are an issue at first. Soundings look to stay at or below freezing all the way down to just about surface from 45h on near DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Someone on the northern edge is going to get SMOKED. Like HM said...frontogenesis is sick and with all that moisture...WHHHEEEEEEE! For now, I like where DC metro sits overall...wiggles in storm track aside. Maybe temps are an issue at first. There is going to be an insane cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Northern edge, like north of DC? Near the PA border perhaps? I wish we had euro support but the nam/gfs has been a ship anchor for 24+ hours. And we know how these things go. IF those ridiculous bands set up, 25-50 miles north get destroyed as well more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Someone on the northern edge is going to get SMOKED. Like HM said...frontogenesis is sick and with all that moisture...WHHHEEEEEEE! For now, I like where DC metro sits overall...wiggles in storm track aside. Maybe temps are an issue at first. Could you post those h7 maps that you post in big storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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