ohleary Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/firewx_18z_ptype_animate_1h.html#picture NAM fire wx nest precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/firewx_18z_ptype_animate_1h.html#picture NAM fire wx nest precip type. IF correct that is pretty darn impressive. Doesn't even get to DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ian--what's the average of last 5 storms where the minimum has been 3 inchesNot sure off top of my head (on phone) but should be easy. Jan 2011 and then the 09-10 events (just the 10 portion). Prob around 8" for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/firewx_18z_ptype_animate_1h.html#picture NAM fire wx nest precip type. Closest it gets to DC around which is around sunrise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 at 9 hr, gfs has the 850 0 line south of 12z run at 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 A little better on GFS temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 at 9 hr, gfs has the 850 0 line south of 12z run at 15 wish that low would scoot east a couple more miles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS as wet as 12z through 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 keeps the heaviest precip west of the potomac, GFS hates central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS as wet as 12z through 24. Good news if it doesn't dry up at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/firewx_18z_ptype_animate_1h.html#picture NAM fire wx nest precip type. Man how I wish that were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 much wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Northern areas a bit better, whole state of MD at about 1" this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 1.75"+ for IAD, 1.50" for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 1.75"+ for IAD, 1.50" for DCA Nice...what's upstairs look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nice...what's upstairs look like? Surface is all that matters. 925 down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS really similar to the nam now w/ temps and track but moves faster so precip is less. Easy logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Or downstairs, for that matter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nice...what's upstairs look like? better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUSTINMFOX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Total precip through 36hrs for Loudon looks 2" DCA looks 1.5-1.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'd gladly sacrifice .50 for colder temps GFS really similar to the nam now w/ temps and track but moves faster so precip is less. Easy logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Seems to show two precip maxes during the heavy period, one west of DC and one east of the bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nice...what's upstairs look like? Not great, a little better. The NAM is cooler than the GFS is warm, so that is probably a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS really similar to the nam now w/ temps and track but moves faster so precip is less. Easy logic. precip went up measurably from the suicide 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Dang... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS really similar to the nam now w/ temps and track but moves faster so precip is less. Easy logic. Is it similar? Profiles support all/mostly all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Random, maybe banter thread-- Sleeting in blacksburg. Upper 40's. models didn't really have super dry air to support this?? When you see those HUGE dry layers, this happens. ?? Yeah, that is good news. Right here the dewpoint is 14,w onder what it might be at 1,000/2,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Up ~.25 out this way...blend of gfs/nam brings ~1.5 of juicy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wetter for MD, but cuts down on purples from CHO to EZF and south down the Blue Ridge FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 precip went up measurably from the suicide 12z run I meant compared to the nam. They just got tighter irt to solutions. I think speed is the main difference right? I haven't check deep yet but I swear this is mostly if not all snow for dc - i95N as well as all points west of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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