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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II


stormtracker

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Here's my benchmark...if we are productive tonight into the early AM...that is, if we go to snow before 4 am or so, I'll feel good.

 

If we have a little drizzle and keep immediately over to snow, I'm popping out the champagne. 

I know a lot of poeple seem focused on the back end snow, but I really feel like the best accumulations in the DC area will be from the initial band of WAA driven precip tonight.  You have timing going, should get going around Midnight and be heavy by 3am, and we have some decently dry air to aid in dynamic cooling.  The only wrench into that would be if there is a warm surge at 850 but runs today have backed off of that idea.  I think the DC area gets a really heavy band of precip and it should be snow from about 1am to 8am.  I could see the metro area getting a quick 3-6" during that time.  After that, it becomes dicey.  THe low goes through that phase/transfer where the moisture transport seems to get interupted for a time, and the best lift and dynamics seem to be a little west of the DC metro, probably aided by the upslope component keeping things more healthy towards the Blue Ridge.  During lulls I think DC area probably has mix issues, and then it depends on how quickly and healthy the low is after that.  If a healthy CCB refires and DC gets a good deform band they could get additional accumulations but the guidance is all over the place on that and once the boundary warms tomorrow its got to be ripping in a band for the DC metro to get good accumulations.  I feel VERY safe with that initial 3-6" burst late tonight, after that its wait and see IMHO. 

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I know a lot of poeple seem focused on the back end snow, but I really feel like the best accumulations in the DC area will be from the initial band of WAA driven precip tonight.  You have timing going, should get going around Midnight and be heavy by 3am, and we have some decently dry air to aid in dynamic cooling.  The only wrench into that would be if there is a warm surge at 850 but runs today have backed off of that idea.  I think the DC area gets a really heavy band of precip and it should be snow from about 1am to 8am.  I could see the metro area getting a quick 3-6" during that time.  After that, it becomes dicey.  THe low goes through that phase/transfer where the moisture transport seems to get interupted for a time, and the best lift and dynamics seem to be a little west of the DC metro, probably aided by the upslope component keeping things more healthy towards the Blue Ridge.  During lulls I think DC area probably has mix issues, and then it depends on how quickly and healthy the low is after that.  If a healthy CCB refires and DC gets a good deform band they could get additional accumulations but the guidance is all over the place on that and once the boundary warms tomorrow its got to be ripping in a band for the DC metro to get good accumulations.  I feel VERY safe with that initial 3-6" burst late tonight, after that its wait and see IMHO. 

 

 

yes...we've been talking about that a bit...the storm is quicker and more dynamic on the front end...nobody should be waiting until tomorrow afternoon for the good stuff...the good stuff is coming in like 7 or 8 hours

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just a raking

 

If the NAM pulls this off, I promise not to bad mouth it for at least 1-2 weeks ;)

i thought it would really dry up at 18z...usually the NAM is really wet and then right before the storm starts...it has a really dry run to align with the other models. So this is surprising and maybe its scores its annual coup

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Yeah, no point in even posting them.  The difference between the NAM and GFS soundings are just remarkable.

 

cold at the sfc throughout. probably a foot+. woo nam.

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