Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 crap model crap snow map alert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 crap model crap snow map alert What model is that from? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What model is that from? lol Rpm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What model is that from? lol RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Rpm Where do you get that map from?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Would we agree DC receiving less than 2'' of snow is OFF the table? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Where do you get that map from?. Facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Rpm People realize this is basically just the WRF-ARW model run in-house by WSI and then repackaged/branded, right? ... or, at least it used to be. I wonder what they even use to initialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Facebook Thanks, figures because it is a model that is not available to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wouldn't the expected bullseye in N Va, WV have the same concern to some extent. Being further west they could have the rug pulled out even quicker than here. They have a few things going for them we do not.... 1. they are further southwest so they get into the WAA precip way before we do, and they get the band when it is much healthier and are in it for longer before it starts to deteriorate. 2. The geography of that region is perfect for this type of storm. A deep easterly fetch pulls all that atlantic moisture in and banks it up against the blue ridge. They will get enhancement like crazy. 3. As the CCB loses some of its dynamics it will contract, they are closer to the path of the low so as it contracts they will still probably remain in the ccb, and continue to get enhancement from the upslope flow. In short no, I think northwestern VA is in for an epic March snow event, probably 12-18" in valley locations and 18-24" in higher elevations. I would not be surprised at all to see some 30" reports from places along the blue ridge in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 People realize this is basically just the WRF-ARW model run in-house by WSI and then repackaged/branded, right? ... or, at least it used to be. I wonder what they even use to initialize. Didn't know that tho makes sense given the look. I know TV mets like it which makes me question it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I still don't know exactly what's going on with the Euro. Mitch says it's terrible, Ian and Wxusaf say good. Ji is whining about 10 days from now and saying it's terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not only that but it's exact wording is: "Please note that the NCEP precip type scheme often misdiagnoses marginally sub-freezing snow- supporting temperature profiles as sleet or rain. Please check the Temperature (Lower) image link to the left as well to confirm the precipitation type." THis.... those schemes use some kind of thickness equation to determine precip type, they are usually wrong when you have an isothermal profile from 850 to near the surface with a shallow above freezing layer at the ground, because the thickness will be very high compared to a normal situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I still don't know exactly what's going on with the Euro. Mitch says it's terrible, Ian and Wxusaf say good. Ji is whining about 10 days from now and saying it's terrible. Surface is "warm" and it is relatively "dry". People see the NAM and anything less is disappointment. Only in this forum.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I still don't know exactly what's going on with the Euro. Mitch says it's terrible, Ian and Wxusaf say good. Ji is whining about 10 days from now and saying it's terrible. Looking at the snow maps on wunderground it doesn't look good for DC immediate metro. I would say 2-4 based on them shutting of by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Didn't know that tho makes sense given the look. I know TV mets like it which makes me question it. I found a talk given a couple of years ago by a guy that I know and respect from WSI ....I'm assuming the situation still holds. I suspect that the TV mets like it for the graphics that WSI produces for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Warnings should be issued by 4pm after all afternoon guidance is in according to LWX. Had someone tell me they spoke with someone there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looking at the snow maps on wunderground it doesn't look good for DC immediate metro. I would say 2-4 based on them shutting of by 12z. Why do you weenies keep forecasting based on generated snow maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm beginning to see the models converge toward a solution that seemed unlikely last night in the way it was played out but now seems it will be plausible. Models seem fairly consistent on bringing the WAA firehose in and getting some decent vertical motion going during that period but then things begin to change. As the better VVs get going and the CCB begins to form, one camp of models (NAM, NAM-NMM, RGEM) set up a main CCB band and rotate it toward western maryland. They then spit out a new band over Southern VA that rotates to near DC, while the original CCB begins to fall apart. This becomes the new CCB and pivots through the area until it gradually drifts east overnight. What is still strange to me is the CCB falls apart during the best dynamics, and the area where the new CCB is generated is right over top of the 700 low, in an area that should be near a traditional null. The second camp of models (GFS, WRF-ARW and to a lesser extent ECMWF) generate the CCB, but do not progress it as far west. The new band they generate exists further offshore and clips the Delmarva, but causes the storm to wrap up and it never progresses that band to near DC. This allows the precip to lighten and the low levels to warm slightly, and eventually contract the original CCB east near 0z tomorrow and end the precip in the DC region. Which model is correct at this point is anybodies guess, but nevertheless, it will be very interesting watching radar around mid-day tomorrow to see which way this is evolving. Based on storm track, one would expect the first solution to be closer to what is expected, but the way the low redevelops brings the second scenario under consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Why do you weenies keep forecasting based on generated snow maps? Not forecasting, just explaining what the maps showed. The temps seem like they are pretty similar to the NAM/GFS. I honestly won't be surprised if DC ends up with 2-4, but I think 4-8 is probably a good range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not forecasting, just explaining what the maps showed. The temps seem like they are pretty similar to the NAM/GFS. I honestly won't be surprised if DC ends up with 2-4, but I think 4-8 is probably a good range. Huh? Ian said they showed 4-8 Da ****? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I still don't know exactly what's going on with the Euro. Mitch says it's terrible, Ian and Wxusaf say good. Ji is whining about 10 days from now and saying it's terrible. If it was good before it's still good. It didn't really change much. If you want the NAM to be right then I guess it sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I have never seen such disagreement between models so close to an event. American models would leave Richmond out of any snow, while GGEM, UKMET, and EURO keep the megaband far enough south to get us in on the action. What's strange is the low tracks are all very similar but there are still large differences in precipitation placement/amounts. Its globals vs high res right now. Higher res models amp the system enough to allow it to hold together better through its reorganization phase tomorrow afternoon as the low occludes and redevelops. This allows the convection east of the low to have less affect and not pull the system southeastward as much. The globals are weaker and thus the ccb falls apart as the low transitions, and then everything contracts and gets pulled southeast due to feedback from the convection to the east of the low. My gut is a compromise here, but a met might have a better idea weather the higher res models would better be able to pick up on this sensitive situation better. One thought I have is if the high res models cant handle this situation better then the globals at 12 hour lead times, then what is their point at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I never saw a precip map from the 0Z Euro. Anyone have that? and the 12Z one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ok, so I need to ask, did Euro tug anything away from Northern MD specifically Carroll County? Euro qpf for Westminster Airport is .76 exactly the same as 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Mitch is near the bottom of his daily model roller-coaster. If NAM comes in good he'll be back up. Just two weeks ago, everyone would have been happy with 3-4" of snow from an event in the first full week of March. Even if we were only to get 3-4" area-wide, that's still a nice end to what has been a rough winter for snow lovers. No matter what we get, it's not like it's going to stick around for days or weeks like it would in January or early February. Regardless, I'm going to enjoy a nice cold day with snow, as this is likely the last time we see accumulating snow till next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro qpf for Westminster Airport is .76 exactly the same as 0z Thanks, well, that is fairly healthy with some ratios I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 If it was good before it's still good. It didn't really change much. If you want the NAM to be right then I guess it sucks. I'd take 4 to 8 and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I never saw a precip map from the 0Z Euro. Anyone have that? and the 12Z one? Euro qpf for Westminster Airport is .76 exactly the same as 0z Even with less QPF, Westminster, Frederick, Hagerstown will all do OK with this storm. Plus, Westminster has some nice elevation going for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Huh? Ian said they showed 4-8 Da ****? Wunderground's Euro snow maps are probably the worst part of their whole website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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