stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 snow contours pretty much the same.. tho the 4-8" nudged east again. we're pretty solidly in it now. yay! I wonder how the upper levels look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I have never seen such disagreement between models so close to an event. American models would leave Richmond out of any snow, while GGEM, UKMET, and EURO keep the megaband far enough south to get us in on the action. What's strange is the low tracks are all very similar but there are still large differences in precipitation placement/amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 snow contours pretty much the same.. tho the 4-8" nudged east again. we're pretty solidly in it now. how about BWI? surface temps on accuwx look warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sounds like the Euro is a slightly less exciting, slightly cooler GFS. temp profile should be workable just looking at the maps. i don't need 2" liquid if half is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ok, so I need to ask, did Euro tug anything away from Northern MD specifically Carroll County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 how about BWI? surface temps on accuwx look warm kinda right on the edge but the contour pushed east the most across N MD. it has been doing so every run as well (i've noted it a few times). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 CHO still looks like the winner on the Euro with 10-15" at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 how about BWI? surface temps on accuwx look warm Unless accuwx pro changed I thought it shouldn't even be out yet in their site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Thought we are at the point where we should be using short range models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Unless accuwx pro changed I thought it shouldn't even be out yet in their site? it's out and not so great qpf .84", surface temps near or above 2C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 CHO still looks like the winner on the Euro with 10-15" at least Wow really? It's been solid in that aspect for days now. Wats it look like for southern Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 precip contours mostly the same as 0z. 1" dropped south a slight hair but still to about DC. not sure it's meaningful as far as a change. What's DCA qpf? 1" close to DCA sounds a smidge drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DCA WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.5 -2.4 0.10 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.5 -3.6 0.42 WED 18Z 06-MAR 2.0 -4.1 0.38 THU 00Z 07-MAR 2.6 -4.7 0.16 THU 06Z 07-MAR 2.0 -3.7 0.03 THU 12Z 07-MAR 0.2 -3.8 0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow really? It's been solid in that aspect for days now. Wats it look like for southern Virginia there's rain in wityh the qpf, but if I had to guess maybe .5" falls as snow, but it could be a little more or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What's DCA qpf? 1" close to DCA sounds a smidge drier. i dunno i only have maps. the contour dropped south like 15 miles from last run but it's basically the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 BWI WED 06Z 06-MAR 2.1 -3.6 0.02 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.9 -4.2 0.32 WED 18Z 06-MAR 2.2 -4.6 0.30 THU 00Z 07-MAR 2.8 -4.8 0.16 THU 06Z 07-MAR 2.1 -3.4 0.04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I am not sure I'd favor the Euro surface temps over the NAM or GFS especially when we are talking 1 degree making all the difference. The Euro runs a little warm at the surface sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow...very cold 850mb temps on the Euro (relative to GFS and NAM). Assuming the warm BL bias still exists, I can explain away the surface temps being ~2C and go for predominantly or entirely snow with the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DCAWED 06Z 06-MAR 1.5 -2.4 0.10 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.5 -3.6 0.42 WED 18Z 06-MAR 2.0 -4.1 0.38 THU 00Z 07-MAR 2.6 -4.7 0.16 THU 06Z 07-MAR 2.0 -3.7 0.03 THU 12Z 07-MAR 0.2 -3.8 0.01 Yawn. NAM please. But for real 850s are good but that 2.6 is jutting as f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 IAD WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.4 -3.0 0.11 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.2 -4.4 0.43 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.6 -4.7 0.40 THU 00Z 07-MAR 2.1 -5.5 0.21 THU 06Z 07-MAR 0.4 -3.8 0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What a brutal PBP of the Euro... IAD/DCA - 1.1" BWI - 0.8" Richmond does flip it seems and could see 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Holy crap CHO WED 00Z 06-MAR 6.4 -1.6 0.01 WED 06Z 06-MAR 0.5 -2.5 0.55 WED 12Z 06-MAR 0.3 -4.7 0.51 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.4 -4.9 0.59 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.7 -5.3 0.21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What a brutal PBP of the Euro... IAD/DCA - 1.1" BWI - 0.8" Richmond does flip it seems and could see 2-3". Eh, I agree with Ian though. This is a good run especially when meshed with NAM/GFS. If we get really lucky with Euro/NAM prof, NAM/GFS qpf, and NAM-like storm progression we could bust high. Don't hate for the optimism, just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Holy crap CHO WED 00Z 06-MAR 6.4 -1.6 0.01 WED 06Z 06-MAR 0.5 -2.5 0.55 WED 12Z 06-MAR 0.3 -4.7 0.51 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.4 -4.9 0.59 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.7 -5.3 0.21 Is CHO Charlottesvilee? Sorry, out of loop, just got back from Seattle for the past two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Does Euro show a long storm like the NAM did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Is CHO Charlottesvilee? Sorry, out of loop, just got back from Seattle for the past two years. yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12z on left through 18z yesterday on the right gfs precip comp.JPG I don't quite buy that convection offshore. it looks suspect to me and why I think the GFS may be having feedback issues. We'll see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What a brutal PBP of the Euro... IAD/DCA - 1.1" BWI - 0.8" Richmond does flip it seems and could see 2-3". Do you have the 6 hr output for the 12z Euro for Richmond? TIA. Giving me a little hope since I'm about 25 miles NW of the RIC airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Does Euro show a long storm like the NAM did? pretty much done by 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Anybody know how much is expected in Frederick, MD - going there are Thursday- Any help will be appreciated. Rossi 8-14 is forecasted for Frederick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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