Scuddz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 whoops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 whoops This would be a time to take that warning on that webpage to heart about not getting precip types right in marginal situations. While I could maybe be convinced to buy the rain, I'll bet money that .36" of pellets aren't falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just to be clear, I am NOT complaining about 3-6" if I get it. You guys in the DC area deserve this so much. I have had about 20" of snow this year (most of it nickel and dime stuff) but I also had 8" from the October storm last year and I experienced the New England blizzard a month ago. If I get 5" and IAD gets 15" so be it, and I am fine with that, but of course I am rooting for the NAM solution where we can both share in 12" plus DC area and my area. I just have no idea which solution is accurate, I do like that the high res models are tending to want to get that deform band firing up near the mason dixon line, so just hope they are onto something. Either way, for some in the DC area this will finally break your streak, and I am very happy for you. Good luck to all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This would be a time to take that warning on that webpage to heart about not getting precip types right in marginal situations. While I could maybe be convinced to buy the rain, I'll bet money that .36" of pellets aren't falling. Yup, and i like those little black bars at the height of it, likely very good rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 whoops Wow. Went from almost all snow to almost all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 we will get some banding with the initial surge late tonight and early tomorrow...but then it depends what happens with the weird low redevelopment process. I could see the NAM/SREF being correct and this is amped enough to just plow east and the deform continues up into our area. I could also see the case for how this thing loses its lift and forcing for a time and that causes the precip shielf to contract, and we end up left with only light insigifnicant precip after that initial band. Its the differnence between 3-6" and 8-12" for our area. Wouldn't the expected bullseye in N Va, WV have the same concern to some extent. Being further west they could have the rug pulled out even quicker than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow. Went from almost all snow to almost all rain. Ouch! Huge horsefly in the ointment... Can anyone post the IAD graph, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 To reiterate, the plume diagrams that Scuddz is showing come from a webpage with a bold red warning that they don't get precip types right in marginal situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 To reiterate, the plume diagrams that Scuddz is showing come from a webpage with a bold red warning that they don't get precip types right in marginal situations. Usually when I have posted that most discount its reliability and laugh at it fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 To reiterate, the plume diagrams that Scuddz is showing come from a webpage with a bold red warning that they don't get precip types right in marginal situations. Ok. So we just toss it, or is it worth a 2nd glance. Why was it posted in the first place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 To reiterate, the plume diagrams that Scuddz is showing come from a webpage with a bold red warning that they don't get precip types right in marginal situations. Not only that but it's exact wording is: "Please note that the NCEP precip type scheme often misdiagnoses marginally sub-freezing snow- supporting temperature profiles as sleet or rain. Please check the Temperature (Lower) image link to the left as well to confirm the precipitation type." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Updated morning AFD from LWX seems to look better for the I-95 crowd TNGT DYNAMIC PROCESSES FM THE CYCLONE TAKE OVER...INCL AN INCRSGLYSTRONG /60-70 KT/ COLD CONVEYOR BELT. THE SFC LOW WL BE PASSING EWDSOMEWHERE NEAR THE NC/VA BRDR...PLACING CWFA IN THE AREA OF BEST <snipped the rest> I only glanced at the mid-morning updated AFD but it seemed to read essentially the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 those graphs are no better than snow maps.. and perhaps worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 those graphs are no better than snow maps.. and perhaps worse Both marginally important. See what I did there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ok. So we just toss it, or is it worth a 2nd glance. Why was it posted in the first place? I think it's worthwhile to look at for seeing how much precip falls per hour and to see those little black bars which indicate a convective element to the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 To reiterate, the plume diagrams that Scuddz is showing come from a webpage with a bold red warning that they don't get precip types right in marginal situations. Nobody seems to be listening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Have any mets made any maps for this yet? So far I've seen DT and Justin Berk's first calls... any others out there that I've missed? This was issued yesterday by Eric Horst at Millersville. I expect an update from him eventually, but don't know when. http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg Discussion: http://snowball.millersville.edu/~cws/SpecialWeatherDiscussion.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nobody seems to be listening. Yeah, oh well. Weenie suicide can recommence. To make this post non-banter (and therefore not break my own rules)...think most of us wake up to 1-3"/2-4" tomorrow morning before we sweat the mixing/temp issues. On to the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 euro! I'll take that as a positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 euro! ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 euro! Don't make me go all-in again... I am gathering you are just saying that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 ? looks like it mostly held.. gives me enough snow to be happy at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 euro! Its initialized?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 looks like it mostly held.. gives me enough snow to be happy at least You can go Euro with an exclamation mark even, and not be more detailed than that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 precip contours mostly the same as 0z. 1" dropped south a slight hair but still to about DC. not sure it's meaningful as far as a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Will somebody post some details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sounds like the Euro is a slightly less exciting, slightly cooler GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You can go Euro with an exclamation mark even, and not be more detailed than that!! snow contours pretty much the same.. tho the 4-8" nudged east again. we're pretty solidly in it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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