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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II


stormtracker

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What a brutal PBP of the Euro... IAD/DCA - 1.1" BWI - 0.8" Richmond does flip it seems and could see 2-3".

Eh, I agree with Ian though. This is a good run especially when meshed with NAM/GFS. If we get really lucky with Euro/NAM prof, NAM/GFS qpf, and NAM-like storm progression we could bust high. Don't hate for the optimism, just sayin

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Wouldn't the expected  bullseye in N Va, WV have the same concern to some extent.  Being further west they could have the rug pulled out even quicker than here.

They have a few things going for them we do not....

1.  they are further southwest so they get into the WAA precip way before we do, and they get the band when it is much healthier and are in it for longer before it starts to deteriorate. 

2.  The geography of that region is perfect for this type of storm.  A deep easterly fetch pulls all that atlantic moisture in and banks it up against the blue ridge.  They will get enhancement like crazy.

3.  As the CCB loses some of its dynamics it will contract, they are closer to the path of the low so as it contracts they will still probably remain in the ccb, and continue to get enhancement from the upslope flow.

 

In short no, I think northwestern VA is in for an epic March snow event, probably 12-18" in valley locations and 18-24" in higher elevations.  I would not be surprised at all to see some 30" reports from places along the blue ridge in that area. 

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People realize this is basically just the WRF-ARW model run in-house by WSI and then repackaged/branded, right? ... or, at least it used to be. I wonder what they even use to initialize.

Didn't know that tho makes sense given the look. I know TV mets like it which makes me question it.

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Not only that but it's exact wording is:

 

"Please note that the NCEP precip type scheme often misdiagnoses marginally sub-freezing snow- supporting temperature profiles as sleet or rain. Please check the Temperature (Lower) image link to the left as well to confirm the precipitation type."

THis.... those schemes use some kind of thickness equation to determine precip type, they are usually wrong when you have an isothermal profile from 850 to near the surface with a shallow above freezing layer at the ground, because the thickness will be very high compared to a normal situation. 

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I still don't know exactly what's going on with the Euro.  Mitch says it's terrible, Ian and Wxusaf say good.  Ji is whining about 10 days from now and saying it's terrible.

Surface is "warm" and it is relatively "dry". People see the NAM and anything less is disappointment. Only in this forum..

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Didn't know that tho makes sense given the look. I know TV mets like it which makes me question it.

I found a talk given a couple of years ago by a guy that I know and respect from WSI ....I'm assuming the situation still holds.  I suspect that the TV mets like it for the graphics that WSI produces for them.

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I'm beginning to see the models converge toward a solution that seemed unlikely last night in the way it was played out but now seems it will be plausible. Models seem fairly consistent on bringing the WAA firehose in and getting some decent vertical motion going during that period but then things begin to change.

 

As the better VVs get going and the CCB begins to form, one camp of models (NAM, NAM-NMM, RGEM) set up a main CCB band and rotate it toward western maryland. They then spit out a new band over Southern VA that rotates to near DC, while the original CCB begins to fall apart. This becomes the new CCB and pivots through the area until it gradually drifts east overnight. What is still strange to me is the CCB falls apart during the best dynamics, and the area where the new CCB is generated is right over top of the 700 low, in an area that should be near a traditional null.

 

The second camp of models (GFS, WRF-ARW and to a lesser extent ECMWF) generate the CCB, but do not progress it as far west. The new band they generate exists further offshore and clips the Delmarva, but causes the storm to wrap up and it never progresses that band to near DC. This allows the precip to lighten and the low levels to warm slightly, and eventually contract the original CCB east near 0z tomorrow and end the precip in the DC region. Which model is correct at this point is anybodies guess, but nevertheless, it will be very interesting watching radar around mid-day tomorrow to see which way this is evolving.

 

Based on storm track, one would expect the first solution to be closer to what is expected, but the way the low redevelops brings the second scenario under consideration.

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