Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well I believe the WWA is for 2-4... but it would also make them look sissy posting a WSW for 6-10 and the cities get less than 4. They are in a very tricky spot with this one How about a WSW for 3-6 or 4-8? That way neither 3" nor 10" would be way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I bet they do it in the next hour. we missed a good contest op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think his concerns are very much valid. Yeah, just like in 09-10 when we ended up with hours and hours of heavy snow obs from northern MD as a band parked there like it always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 warning criteria is 5", correct? In that case, they should just put DC/Bmore and the 95 corridor in a WSW with 3-6/4-8 as the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 yeah it still seems kinda goofy.. but in theory the globals should still have a better picture of the overall storm i'd think but maybe im wrong. at this point, I'd prefer resolution...so i'd go with a euro (global high resolution) / nam (regional hi-res, especially in the vertical...better to have more model layers in the BL)...someone else can address the differences in vertical resolution between the euro and gfs but i'd expect the euro has better resolution in the first 3000 meters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 they will wsw by the afternoon package i bet Stalking chat, sounds like they're not including the metro area in any warnings yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So this has probably been discussed, but what are some good analogs to look at here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Stalking chat, sounds like they're not including the metro area in any warnings yet You would think they would have to make a decision by the 3 PM package? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I bet they do it in the next hour. Prob should in time for the noon news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 warning criteria is 5", correct? In that case, they should just put DC/Bmore and the 95 corridor in a WSW with 3-6/4-8 as the forecast. That 4-8" range is probably what nws will choose in theirWSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You would think they would have to make a decision by the 3 PM package? I don't see any reason why they couldn't wait until later tonight or overnight to up those areas to WSWs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 yeah it still seems kinda goofy.. but in theory the globals should still have a better picture of the overall storm i'd think but maybe im wrong. Right, the gfs and euro are spectral models which means that atmospheric variables are represented as a function of the waves, thus giving a better synoptic representation. as you probably already know, the NAM is a gridpoint model, so it is supposedly better for local differences. Don't know if it truly verifies that way though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Prob should in time for the noon news gotta make sure to warn all the stay at home parents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Stalking chat, sounds like they're not including the metro area in any warnings yet Thats interesting. Still concerned with temps I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I don't see any reason why they couldn't wait until later tonight or overnight to up those areas to WSWs. That would be too late IMO... can't wait till after the evening news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We are <10 hours from the onset of precip and the GFS and NAM have an 8 hour difference on when the precip ends....I'd probably blend them, but the GFS could certainly be right that the storm sh-its the bed at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 at this point, I'd prefer resolution...so i'd go with a euro (global high resolution) / nam (regional hi-res, especially in the vertical...better to have more model layers in the BL)...someone else can address the differences in vertical resolution between the euro and gfs but i'd expect the euro has better resolution in the first 3000 meters GFS has 64 vertical layers while euro has 137 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Anyone notice if current temps are higher then what was being modeled? Feels pretty warm out.. It was 60 in parts of OK the day before they got 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think his concerns are very much valid. They are this time. First of all the Euro has yet to love the area north of I-70. Second of all there has been a clearly visible trend the last 3 runs of the GFS and the somewhat with the Nam last run despite holding things together better. Last point is we are now seeing this trend inside of 24 hours oppossed to 09/10 when the trends went the other way inside of 24 hours. We probably will still do well and I will be happy with 6-8 here and the models could bump up again, but the chances for 12 plus are diminishing. I am by no means complaining however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It was 60 in parts of OK the day before they got 20" Obs thread after the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Obs thread after the euro? I think so, yes. Obs/nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Obs thread after the euro? Might as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It was 60 in parts of OK the day before they got 20" I was hoping not to see lo/mid 40s already, but the good thing is that the dews are in the mid/upper teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hey guys does anyone have access to show what the Euro QPF output was like last night run for central and southern va? Was it still respectable? It was the model still giving me some decent accumulations for overnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Might as well Too late, Ji started it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The sun is warm but air is frigid and 38 here in westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I was waiting for psuhoffman to worry about being fringed. Its a legitimate concern this time. It has nothing to do with the low track, the path of the low across southeast VA is actually perfect for northern MD and SOuthern PA, the problem is how the storm transitions. Most of the guidance is now indicating the storm goes through a redevelopment period right as the best lift would be getting into our area. THus we get the initial WAA precip surge, but then the precip just dies and contracts as the storm becomes disorganized. It then re-fires up but well to our east. THe NAM/SREF hold the system together better as it goes through this transition and thus we do well...but I could definitely see the GFS/Euro be right about this. In that case those of us north of Baltimore would get a quick 3-6" burst of snow late tonight and early tomorrow but then as the ccb falls apart and contracts towards VA we would get mostly light scattered precip after that with no accumulation. I think that possible outcome is definitely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hey guys does anyone have access to show what the Euro QPF output was like last night run for central and southern va? Was it still respectable? It was the model still giving me some decent accumulations for overnight tonight. Don't have the liquid but here is the 0z Euro snow map https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/559847_522890301087894_1033290858_n.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Don't have the liquid but here is the 0z Euro snow map https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/559847_522890301087894_1033290858_n.png Thanks man appreciate that right on the line of 3-6/6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah, just like in 09-10 when we ended up with hours and hours of heavy snow obs from northern MD as a band parked there like it always does. we will get some banding with the initial surge late tonight and early tomorrow...but then it depends what happens with the weird low redevelopment process. I could see the NAM/SREF being correct and this is amped enough to just plow east and the deform continues up into our area. I could also see the case for how this thing loses its lift and forcing for a time and that causes the precip shielf to contract, and we end up left with only light insigifnicant precip after that initial band. Its the differnence between 3-6" and 8-12" for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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