Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Obs thread after the euro? Might as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It was 60 in parts of OK the day before they got 20" I was hoping not to see lo/mid 40s already, but the good thing is that the dews are in the mid/upper teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hey guys does anyone have access to show what the Euro QPF output was like last night run for central and southern va? Was it still respectable? It was the model still giving me some decent accumulations for overnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Might as well Too late, Ji started it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The sun is warm but air is frigid and 38 here in westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I was waiting for psuhoffman to worry about being fringed. Its a legitimate concern this time. It has nothing to do with the low track, the path of the low across southeast VA is actually perfect for northern MD and SOuthern PA, the problem is how the storm transitions. Most of the guidance is now indicating the storm goes through a redevelopment period right as the best lift would be getting into our area. THus we get the initial WAA precip surge, but then the precip just dies and contracts as the storm becomes disorganized. It then re-fires up but well to our east. THe NAM/SREF hold the system together better as it goes through this transition and thus we do well...but I could definitely see the GFS/Euro be right about this. In that case those of us north of Baltimore would get a quick 3-6" burst of snow late tonight and early tomorrow but then as the ccb falls apart and contracts towards VA we would get mostly light scattered precip after that with no accumulation. I think that possible outcome is definitely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hey guys does anyone have access to show what the Euro QPF output was like last night run for central and southern va? Was it still respectable? It was the model still giving me some decent accumulations for overnight tonight. Don't have the liquid but here is the 0z Euro snow map https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/559847_522890301087894_1033290858_n.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Don't have the liquid but here is the 0z Euro snow map https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/559847_522890301087894_1033290858_n.png Thanks man appreciate that right on the line of 3-6/6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah, just like in 09-10 when we ended up with hours and hours of heavy snow obs from northern MD as a band parked there like it always does. we will get some banding with the initial surge late tonight and early tomorrow...but then it depends what happens with the weird low redevelopment process. I could see the NAM/SREF being correct and this is amped enough to just plow east and the deform continues up into our area. I could also see the case for how this thing loses its lift and forcing for a time and that causes the precip shielf to contract, and we end up left with only light insigifnicant precip after that initial band. Its the differnence between 3-6" and 8-12" for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 whoops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 whoops This would be a time to take that warning on that webpage to heart about not getting precip types right in marginal situations. While I could maybe be convinced to buy the rain, I'll bet money that .36" of pellets aren't falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just to be clear, I am NOT complaining about 3-6" if I get it. You guys in the DC area deserve this so much. I have had about 20" of snow this year (most of it nickel and dime stuff) but I also had 8" from the October storm last year and I experienced the New England blizzard a month ago. If I get 5" and IAD gets 15" so be it, and I am fine with that, but of course I am rooting for the NAM solution where we can both share in 12" plus DC area and my area. I just have no idea which solution is accurate, I do like that the high res models are tending to want to get that deform band firing up near the mason dixon line, so just hope they are onto something. Either way, for some in the DC area this will finally break your streak, and I am very happy for you. Good luck to all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This would be a time to take that warning on that webpage to heart about not getting precip types right in marginal situations. While I could maybe be convinced to buy the rain, I'll bet money that .36" of pellets aren't falling. Yup, and i like those little black bars at the height of it, likely very good rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 whoops Wow. Went from almost all snow to almost all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 we will get some banding with the initial surge late tonight and early tomorrow...but then it depends what happens with the weird low redevelopment process. I could see the NAM/SREF being correct and this is amped enough to just plow east and the deform continues up into our area. I could also see the case for how this thing loses its lift and forcing for a time and that causes the precip shielf to contract, and we end up left with only light insigifnicant precip after that initial band. Its the differnence between 3-6" and 8-12" for our area. Wouldn't the expected bullseye in N Va, WV have the same concern to some extent. Being further west they could have the rug pulled out even quicker than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow. Went from almost all snow to almost all rain. Ouch! Huge horsefly in the ointment... Can anyone post the IAD graph, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 To reiterate, the plume diagrams that Scuddz is showing come from a webpage with a bold red warning that they don't get precip types right in marginal situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 To reiterate, the plume diagrams that Scuddz is showing come from a webpage with a bold red warning that they don't get precip types right in marginal situations. Usually when I have posted that most discount its reliability and laugh at it fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 To reiterate, the plume diagrams that Scuddz is showing come from a webpage with a bold red warning that they don't get precip types right in marginal situations. Ok. So we just toss it, or is it worth a 2nd glance. Why was it posted in the first place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 To reiterate, the plume diagrams that Scuddz is showing come from a webpage with a bold red warning that they don't get precip types right in marginal situations. Not only that but it's exact wording is: "Please note that the NCEP precip type scheme often misdiagnoses marginally sub-freezing snow- supporting temperature profiles as sleet or rain. Please check the Temperature (Lower) image link to the left as well to confirm the precipitation type." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Updated morning AFD from LWX seems to look better for the I-95 crowd TNGT DYNAMIC PROCESSES FM THE CYCLONE TAKE OVER...INCL AN INCRSGLYSTRONG /60-70 KT/ COLD CONVEYOR BELT. THE SFC LOW WL BE PASSING EWDSOMEWHERE NEAR THE NC/VA BRDR...PLACING CWFA IN THE AREA OF BEST <snipped the rest> I only glanced at the mid-morning updated AFD but it seemed to read essentially the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 those graphs are no better than snow maps.. and perhaps worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 those graphs are no better than snow maps.. and perhaps worse Both marginally important. See what I did there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ok. So we just toss it, or is it worth a 2nd glance. Why was it posted in the first place? I think it's worthwhile to look at for seeing how much precip falls per hour and to see those little black bars which indicate a convective element to the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 To reiterate, the plume diagrams that Scuddz is showing come from a webpage with a bold red warning that they don't get precip types right in marginal situations. Nobody seems to be listening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Have any mets made any maps for this yet? So far I've seen DT and Justin Berk's first calls... any others out there that I've missed? This was issued yesterday by Eric Horst at Millersville. I expect an update from him eventually, but don't know when. http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg Discussion: http://snowball.millersville.edu/~cws/SpecialWeatherDiscussion.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nobody seems to be listening. Yeah, oh well. Weenie suicide can recommence. To make this post non-banter (and therefore not break my own rules)...think most of us wake up to 1-3"/2-4" tomorrow morning before we sweat the mixing/temp issues. On to the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 euro! I'll take that as a positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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