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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II


stormtracker

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I was waiting for psuhoffman to worry about being fringed.

Its a legitimate concern this time. It has nothing to do with the low track, the path of the low across southeast VA is actually perfect for northern MD and SOuthern PA, the problem is how the storm transitions.  Most of the guidance is now indicating the storm goes through a redevelopment period right as the best lift would be getting into our area.  THus we get the initial WAA precip surge, but then the precip just dies and contracts as the storm becomes disorganized.  It then re-fires up but well to our east.  THe NAM/SREF hold the system together better as it goes through this transition and thus we do well...but I could definitely see the GFS/Euro be right about this.  In that case those of us north of Baltimore would get a quick 3-6" burst of snow late tonight and early tomorrow but then as the ccb falls apart and contracts towards VA we would get mostly light scattered precip after that with no accumulation.  I think that possible outcome is definitely possible. 

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Hey guys does anyone have access to show what the Euro QPF output was like last night run for central and southern va? Was it still respectable? It was the model still giving me some decent accumulations for overnight tonight.

 

Don't have the liquid but here is the 0z Euro snow map

 

https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/559847_522890301087894_1033290858_n.png

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Yeah, just like in 09-10 when we ended up with hours and hours of heavy snow obs from northern MD as a band parked there like it always does.

we will get some banding with the initial surge late tonight and early tomorrow...but then it depends what happens with the weird low redevelopment process.  I could see the NAM/SREF being correct and this is amped enough to just plow east and the deform continues up into our area.  I could also see the case for how this thing loses its lift and forcing for a time and that causes the precip shielf to contract, and we end up left with only light insigifnicant precip after that initial band.  Its the differnence between 3-6" and 8-12" for our area. 

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whoops

This would be a time to take that warning on that webpage to heart about not getting precip types right in marginal situations.  While I could maybe be convinced to buy the rain, I'll bet money that .36" of pellets aren't falling.  

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Just to be clear, I am NOT complaining about 3-6" if I get it.  You guys in the DC area deserve this so much.  I have had about 20" of snow this year (most of it nickel and dime stuff) but I also had 8" from the October storm last year and I experienced the New England blizzard a month ago.  If I get 5" and IAD gets 15" so be it, and I am fine with that, but of course I am rooting for the NAM solution where we can both share in 12" plus DC area and my area.  I just have no idea which solution is accurate, I do like that the high res models are tending to want to get that deform band firing up near the mason dixon line, so just hope they are onto something.  Either way, for some in the DC area this will finally break your streak, and I am very happy for you.  Good luck to all of us. 

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This would be a time to take that warning on that webpage to heart about not getting precip types right in marginal situations.  While I could maybe be convinced to buy the rain, I'll bet money that .36" of pellets aren't falling.  

 

 

Yup, and i like those little black bars at the height of it, likely very good rates

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we will get some banding with the initial surge late tonight and early tomorrow...but then it depends what happens with the weird low redevelopment process.  I could see the NAM/SREF being correct and this is amped enough to just plow east and the deform continues up into our area.  I could also see the case for how this thing loses its lift and forcing for a time and that causes the precip shielf to contract, and we end up left with only light insigifnicant precip after that initial band.  Its the differnence between 3-6" and 8-12" for our area. 

Wouldn't the expected  bullseye in N Va, WV have the same concern to some extent.  Being further west they could have the rug pulled out even quicker than here.

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To reiterate, the plume diagrams that Scuddz is showing come from a webpage with a bold red warning that they don't get precip types right in marginal situations.  

Ok. So we just toss it, or is it worth a 2nd glance. Why was it posted in the first place?

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To reiterate, the plume diagrams that Scuddz is showing come from a webpage with a bold red warning that they don't get precip types right in marginal situations.  

 

Not only that but it's exact wording is:

 

"Please note that the NCEP precip type scheme often misdiagnoses marginally sub-freezing snow- supporting temperature profiles as sleet or rain. Please check the Temperature (Lower) image link to the left as well to confirm the precipitation type."

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Updated morning AFD from LWX seems to look better for the I-95 crowd

 

TNGT DYNAMIC PROCESSES FM THE CYCLONE TAKE OVER...INCL AN INCRSGLYSTRONG /60-70 KT/ COLD CONVEYOR BELT. THE SFC LOW WL BE PASSING EWDSOMEWHERE NEAR THE NC/VA BRDR...PLACING CWFA IN THE AREA OF BEST

<snipped the rest>

 

I only glanced at the mid-morning updated AFD but it seemed to read essentially the same.

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Ok. So we just toss it, or is it worth a 2nd glance. Why was it posted in the first place?

I think it's worthwhile to look at for seeing how much precip falls per hour and to see those little black bars which indicate a convective element to the precip.  

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Have any mets made any maps for this yet?  So far I've seen DT and Justin Berk's first calls... any others out there that I've missed?

 

This was issued yesterday by Eric Horst at Millersville.  I expect an update from him eventually, but don't know when.

 

http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg

 

 

Discussion:

http://snowball.millersville.edu/~cws/SpecialWeatherDiscussion.html

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Nobody seems to be listening.

Yeah, oh well.  Weenie suicide can recommence.

 

 

To make this post  non-banter (and therefore not break my own rules)...think most of us wake up to 1-3"/2-4" tomorrow morning before we sweat the mixing/temp issues.  On to the Euro...

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