Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Last 4 of the nam. Nam clearly thinks it's a slower moving system with a more intense ccb/deform. Meet in the middle somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think the strategy now..imo...is to use the EURO as a baseline for QPF but bump it up a bit....Use Euro for track and adjust NAM/GFS profiles based on that..Euro runs warm in the BL usually....we are going to have a sharp gradient and we have to deal with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12z on left through 18z yesterday on the right gfs precip comp.JPG 12Z is better than 06Z at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DCA: WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.6 -2.1 0.16 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.5 -2.2 0.43 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.4 -1.9 0.49 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.6 -3.5 0.21 THU 06Z 07-MAR 0.1 -3.5 0.04 BWI: WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.6 -2.8 0.05 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.7 -3.5 0.39 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.9 -2.3 0.33 THU 00Z 07-MAR 2.2 -3.7 0.09 THU 06Z 07-MAR 0.4 -3.2 0.03 IAD: WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.3 -2.8 0.17 WED 12Z 06-MAR 0.9 -3.1 0.48 WED 18Z 06-MAR 0.9 -2.9 0.53 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.2 -4.2 0.46 THU 06Z 07-MAR -0.7 -4.2 0.02 Is there a way to put headins on these charts for those of us who are't used to looking at those products? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Last 4 of the nam. Nam clearly thinks it's a slower moving system with a more intense ccb/deform. Meet in the middle somewhere? namprecipcomp1.JPG i'd perhaps lean to the nam with profile and the gfs with everything else. the gfs should still model the overall system better i'd think? edit: this is not factoring the EURO at all. which will be 100% correct because it is the man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Is there a way to put headins on these charts for those of us who are't used to looking at those products? Date then Surface Temp then 850 Temp then qpf amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS soundings are better than I thought they would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i'd perhaps lean to the nam with profile and the gfs with everything else. the gfs should still model the overall system better i'd think? edit: this is not factoring the EURO at all. which will be 100% correct because it is the man. I honestly don't have much faith in the GFS at all....I'd take a Euro/NAM blend assuming they are close and warm the NAM profiles a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i'd perhaps lean to the nam with profile and the gfs with everything else. the gfs should still model the overall system better i'd think? edit: this is not factoring the EURO at all. which will be 100% correct because it is the man. why should the GFS better model the overall system right now? its a model that goes out to 384 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12Z is better than 06Z at least. It is. I think it's just oscillations in how the model calculates the ccb/deform. Track seem like it's welded in our area. Intensity / timing is awful tricky here. I'm mostly rooting for just getting the temps right. Anything that can go our way for all snow vs rain lunchmeat inside of a snow sandwich is good. Precip amounts are in a pretty good range already. And somebody N of the potomac will get a surprise jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS has trimmed precip back in MD each of the last 3 runs. I have noticed... not making me feel confident. It seems to me the GFS and even the RGEM now but to a lesser extent have the dynamics die as the low occludes and then redevelops east. Its easy to see, the low gets up into southeast VA and the CCB is going good...then as the low stalls, gets vertically stacked, then transfers east, the vv's slack off and the precip pattern becomes spotty and more scattered in bands. It especially pulls the rug out of that band that is getting into northern MD. It bothers me because it is plausable and I can see why it is doing that. The NAM even sees it a bit, but is amped enough to keep the ccb together more up into southern PA. HUGE difference for the gringe areas. SREF/NAM would indicate a 8-12" forecast up into southern PA, the GFS would indicate 2-4" for the same area, hard to hedge when the storm is 18 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Winter Storm warning likely to be extended all the way toward/to AA County shortly per Chris of LWX NWS (just heard it on the radio station) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Is there a way to put headins on these charts for those of us who are't used to looking at those products? Text in that format will always be time:surface temp: 850 temp: 6 hour precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12Z is better than 06Z at least. I think Bob accidently flipped them. I think 12z is worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Bob. I think the first one on the left is 6z and the second is 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I was waiting for psuhoffman to worry about being fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think Bob accidently flipped them. I think 12z is worst. crap, I flipped them. My eyes hurt and i'm tired. good catch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I honestly don't have much faith in the GFS at all....I'd take a Euro/NAM blend assuming they are close and warm the NAM profiles a bit yeah it still seems kinda goofy.. but in theory the globals should still have a better picture of the overall storm i'd think but maybe im wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i'd perhaps lean to the nam with profile and the gfs with everything else. the gfs should still model the overall system better i'd think? edit: this is not factoring the EURO at all. which will be 100% correct because it is the man. If gfs is speedy outlier im not sure? 0z euro 6z nam blend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 When do the next sref's come out? I would think they are pretty important as well irt to precip trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Would it be better the LWX to issue a WWA for the major cities to just alert the public? They can always up it to a WSW if the changeover occurs sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Would it be better the LWX to issue a WWA for the major cities to just alert the public? They can always up it to a WSW if the changeover occurs sooner. Going from a WWA for 1-3 to a WSW for 6-10 would make them look pretty silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 When do the next sref's come out? I would think they are pretty important as well irt to precip trends. Just after 2 I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Would it be better the LWX to issue a WWA for the major cities to just alert the public? They can always up it to a WSW if the changeover occurs sooner. they will wsw by the afternoon package i bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Would it be better the LWX to issue a WWA for the major cities to just alert the public? They can always up it to a WSW if the changeover occurs sooner. No. The current watch serves the purpose of alerting the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I was waiting for psuhoffman to worry about being fringed. I think his concerns are very much valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 they will wsw by the afternoon package i bet Its coming soon... I am not sure what "shiortly" means by Chris Strong of LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yesterdays runs had a weaker confluence zone and the troff went negative furth.er west. They were also warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 they will wsw by the afternoon package i bet I bet they do it in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Going from a WWA for 1-3 to a WSW for 6-10 would make them look pretty silly. Well I believe the WWA is for 2-4... but it would also make them look silly posting a WSW for 6-10 and the cities get less than 4. They are in a very tricky spot with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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