The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II

[TalcottWx]

Is it like euro regarding speed or just qpf

[stormtracker]

it does...it isnt the slow mover the others are..we are done at like 6pm.....qpf now similar to euro

The GFS thinks the Potomac River is a block.   Look at the total QPF maps.

[Bob Chill]

Euro and GFS together should be a cause for concern. The weenie side of me wants to say perhaps they are not picking up on the dynamics quite as well as the NAM. Still, that's interesting that it's like the EURO

 

Nothing is giving us less than 1.25-1.5" now though. I think temps are the laser focus. GFS crept better but not namish. At least it doesn't look like it's warmer than 6z. that's good. 

[yoda]

Nothing is giving us less than 1.25-1.5" now though. I think temps are the laser focus. GFS crept better but not namish. At least it doesn't look like it's warmer than 6z. that's good. 

 

It seems the problem is the speed and the CCB... NAM develops one much better and stronger than the GFS and slows down... GFS naso much and speeds away

[swimmatte]

Euro and GFS together should be a cause for concern. The weenie side of me wants to say perhaps they are not picking up on the dynamics quite as well as the NAM. Still, that's interesting that it's like the EURO

 

Are we complaining about 1.5" of liquid?  And we're 12 hours away from the event, I'm not so sure the GFS is all that important right now.  

 

I'll trade some qpf for better temps 10/10 times, we'd be losing it on rain anyways.

 

EDIT: That's borderline banter by me, so I'll add that this run helped in the temp department, which is what I care most about.  

[blazeKing]

Temps should be the concern for the DC/95 area and in that regard, this run is better.

[Solo2]

1-1.25" for Northern MD.  I'll take it happily.

[clskinsfan]

12Z and 6Z through 48:

 

 

 

 

Looks better to me?

[WxUSAF]

GFS has only 1/3rd the precip of the NAM for northeastern MD and about 1/2 the precip for central MD.  That's more than just the NAM's wet bias at play.  GFS is just faster and doesn't develop the deform zone as intensely.  

[PhineasC]

GFS has only 1/3rd the precip of the NAM for northeastern MD and about 1/2 the precip for central MD.  That's more than just the NAM's wet bias at play.  GFS is just faster and doesn't develop the deform zone as intensely.  

Yeah, they'd be very different storms for DC and BWI as depicted.

[stormtracker]

GFS has only 1/3rd the precip of the NAM for northeastern MD and about 1/2 the precip for central MD.  That's more than just the NAM's wet bias at play.  GFS is just faster and doesn't develop the deform zone as intensely.  

Sounding man.  Get us a full workup panel, stat!

[Ji]

its actually wetter in Leesburg for whatever reason

[thesnowsknows]

^{1-1.25" for Northern MD.  I'll take it happily.}

 

^{If you're looking at the last GFS run it's just not true. No. MD is closer to .5 than 1, period. Don't wish want you want to see, just see it.}

[Bob Chill]

GFS has only 1/3rd the precip of the NAM for northeastern MD and about 1/2 the precip for central MD.  That's more than just the NAM's wet bias at play.  GFS is just faster and doesn't develop the deform zone as intensely.  

 

Yea, simply moved out quicker at lower intensity. I think the only hedge is cautiously in the middle w/ the nam for now and see what the euro does. 

 

iirc- the precip axis almost always ends up further north with these setups. I've watched enough radar loops during nowcast time to know that I'm just not making that up. 

[PhineasC]

^{If you're looking at the last GFS run it's just not true. No. MD is closer to .5 than 1, period. Don't wish want you want to see, just see it.}

Are you using your trained eye to look past the maps on NCEP to the "true maps"?

[MN Transplant]

Soundings near DCA

 

 

 

[thesnowsknows]

Are you using your trained eye to look past the maps on NCEP to the "true maps"?

I am not. Touche. But still doesn't look close to 1.25 to me.

[Solo2]

^{If you're looking at the last GFS run it's just not true. No. MD is closer to .5 than 1, period. Don't wish want you want to see, just see it.}

 

I was referring to HGR to FDK specifically....should have mentioned.  It is rather clearly in the 1-1.25" until you get about 5-10mi north of FDK.

[yoda]

I believe those are wet wet snow soundings, right MN?

[catoctin wx]

If you're looking at the last GFS run it's just not true. No. MD is closer to .5 than 1, period. Don't wish want you want to see, just see it.

 

For the Frederick area (which he was talking about), he is exactly right.  12Z GFS has that part of MD in the 1.0-1.25 range.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p60&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_060_precip_p60.gif

[swimmatte]

DCA:

 

 

WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.6    -2.1    0.16       WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.5    -2.2    0.43        WED 18Z 06-MAR   1.4    -1.9    0.49         THU 00Z 07-MAR   1.6    -3.5    0.21         THU 06Z 07-MAR   0.1    -3.5    0.04         

 

BWI:

 

 

WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.6    -2.8    0.05        WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.7    -3.5    0.39        WED 18Z 06-MAR   1.9    -2.3    0.33       THU 00Z 07-MAR   2.2    -3.7    0.09         THU 06Z 07-MAR   0.4    -3.2    0.03     IAD:

WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.3 -2.8 0.17 WED 12Z 06-MAR 0.9 -3.1 0.48 WED 18Z 06-MAR 0.9 -2.9 0.53 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.2 -4.2 0.46 THU 06Z 07-MAR -0.7 -4.2 0.02  

[WxUSAF]

Sounding man.  Get us a full workup panel, stat!

GFS soundings through 21z tomorrow are a lot better than I thought they'd be.  Certainly better than 6z's.  Freezing level is at or very close to 950mb for the entire day tomorrow and surface is ~1C.  850s have certainly cooled a couple degrees relative to 6z.  

 

Much more borderline to the east by Annapolis.  

[Amped]

Convection robbing the warm sector even though the cf is offshore. Might happen if the gulfstream is to warm.

[WxUSAF]

I believe those are wet wet snow soundings, right MN?

I think those are probably snow, yes.  If precip lightens up significantly, that's probably RASN.  

[swimmatte]

DCA:

 

 

WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.6    -2.1    0.16       WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.5    -2.2    0.43        WED 18Z 06-MAR   1.4    -1.9    0.49         THU 00Z 07-MAR   1.6    -3.5    0.21         THU 06Z 07-MAR   0.1    -3.5    0.04         

 

BWI:

 

 

WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.6    -2.8    0.05        WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.7    -3.5    0.39        WED 18Z 06-MAR   1.9    -2.3    0.33       THU 00Z 07-MAR   2.2    -3.7    0.09         THU 06Z 07-MAR   0.4    -3.2    0.03     IAD:

WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.3 -2.8 0.17 WED 12Z 06-MAR 0.9 -3.1 0.48 WED 18Z 06-MAR 0.9 -2.9 0.53 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.2 -4.2 0.46 THU 06Z 07-MAR -0.7 -4.2 0.02  

 

Damn, I'm not sure why it messes up my formatting for IAD every time.  Fixed in the quote..... I think.

[Ian]

GFS pretty cold at the sfc at least

[Bob Chill]

12z on left through 18z yesterday on the right

 

[MN Transplant]

I believe those are wet wet snow soundings, right MN?

 

 

I think those are probably snow, yes.  If precip lightens up significantly, that's probably RASN.  

 

Yeah, they might be rate dependent. 

[Amped]

I was referring to HGR to FDK specifically....should have mentioned. It is rather clearly in the 1-1.25" until you get about 5-10mi north of FDK.

Nam shows a band near Hagerstown or just NW and a bit of a dryslot over ne md. I'm guessing hgr will do better than fdk and will try to.make it to work tomorrow.

[Solo2]

Nam shows a band near Hagerstown or just NW and a bit of a dryslot over ne md. I'm guessing hgr will do better than fdk and will try to.make it to work tomorrow.

 

I'd agree.