Interstate Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Would it be better the LWX to issue a WWA for the major cities to just alert the public? They can always up it to a WSW if the changeover occurs sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Would it be better the LWX to issue a WWA for the major cities to just alert the public? They can always up it to a WSW if the changeover occurs sooner. Going from a WWA for 1-3 to a WSW for 6-10 would make them look pretty silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 When do the next sref's come out? I would think they are pretty important as well irt to precip trends. Just after 2 I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Would it be better the LWX to issue a WWA for the major cities to just alert the public? They can always up it to a WSW if the changeover occurs sooner. they will wsw by the afternoon package i bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Would it be better the LWX to issue a WWA for the major cities to just alert the public? They can always up it to a WSW if the changeover occurs sooner. No. The current watch serves the purpose of alerting the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I was waiting for psuhoffman to worry about being fringed. I think his concerns are very much valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 they will wsw by the afternoon package i bet Its coming soon... I am not sure what "shiortly" means by Chris Strong of LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yesterdays runs had a weaker confluence zone and the troff went negative furth.er west. They were also warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 they will wsw by the afternoon package i bet I bet they do it in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Going from a WWA for 1-3 to a WSW for 6-10 would make them look pretty silly. Well I believe the WWA is for 2-4... but it would also make them look silly posting a WSW for 6-10 and the cities get less than 4. They are in a very tricky spot with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well I believe the WWA is for 2-4... but it would also make them look sissy posting a WSW for 6-10 and the cities get less than 4. They are in a very tricky spot with this one How about a WSW for 3-6 or 4-8? That way neither 3" nor 10" would be way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I bet they do it in the next hour. we missed a good contest op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think his concerns are very much valid. Yeah, just like in 09-10 when we ended up with hours and hours of heavy snow obs from northern MD as a band parked there like it always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 warning criteria is 5", correct? In that case, they should just put DC/Bmore and the 95 corridor in a WSW with 3-6/4-8 as the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 yeah it still seems kinda goofy.. but in theory the globals should still have a better picture of the overall storm i'd think but maybe im wrong. at this point, I'd prefer resolution...so i'd go with a euro (global high resolution) / nam (regional hi-res, especially in the vertical...better to have more model layers in the BL)...someone else can address the differences in vertical resolution between the euro and gfs but i'd expect the euro has better resolution in the first 3000 meters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 they will wsw by the afternoon package i bet Stalking chat, sounds like they're not including the metro area in any warnings yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So this has probably been discussed, but what are some good analogs to look at here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Stalking chat, sounds like they're not including the metro area in any warnings yet You would think they would have to make a decision by the 3 PM package? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I bet they do it in the next hour. Prob should in time for the noon news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 warning criteria is 5", correct? In that case, they should just put DC/Bmore and the 95 corridor in a WSW with 3-6/4-8 as the forecast. That 4-8" range is probably what nws will choose in theirWSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You would think they would have to make a decision by the 3 PM package? I don't see any reason why they couldn't wait until later tonight or overnight to up those areas to WSWs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 yeah it still seems kinda goofy.. but in theory the globals should still have a better picture of the overall storm i'd think but maybe im wrong. Right, the gfs and euro are spectral models which means that atmospheric variables are represented as a function of the waves, thus giving a better synoptic representation. as you probably already know, the NAM is a gridpoint model, so it is supposedly better for local differences. Don't know if it truly verifies that way though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Prob should in time for the noon news gotta make sure to warn all the stay at home parents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Stalking chat, sounds like they're not including the metro area in any warnings yet Thats interesting. Still concerned with temps I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I don't see any reason why they couldn't wait until later tonight or overnight to up those areas to WSWs. That would be too late IMO... can't wait till after the evening news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 at this point, I'd prefer resolution...so i'd go with a euro (global high resolution) / nam (regional hi-res, especially in the vertical...better to have more model layers in the BL)...someone else can address the differences in vertical resolution between the euro and gfs but i'd expect the euro has better resolution in the first 3000 meters GFS has 64 vertical layers while euro has 137 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Anyone notice if current temps are higher then what was being modeled? Feels pretty warm out.. It was 60 in parts of OK the day before they got 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think his concerns are very much valid. They are this time. First of all the Euro has yet to love the area north of I-70. Second of all there has been a clearly visible trend the last 3 runs of the GFS and the somewhat with the Nam last run despite holding things together better. Last point is we are now seeing this trend inside of 24 hours oppossed to 09/10 when the trends went the other way inside of 24 hours. We probably will still do well and I will be happy with 6-8 here and the models could bump up again, but the chances for 12 plus are diminishing. I am by no means complaining however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It was 60 in parts of OK the day before they got 20" Obs thread after the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Obs thread after the euro? I think so, yes. Obs/nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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