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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II


stormtracker

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000FXUS61 KLWX 050855AFDLWXhttp://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=offAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC355 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013TNGT DYNAMIC PROCESSES FM THE CYCLONE TAKE OVER...INCL AN INCRSGLYSTRONG /60-70 KT/ COLD CONVEYOR BELT. THE SFC LOW WL BE PASSING EWDSOMEWHERE NEAR THE NC/VA BRDR...PLACING CWFA IN THE AREA OF BESTLIFT AND MSTR INFLUX. SFC TEMPS REMAIN PESKY THO. SHUD HV COOLING OFTHE COLUMN...BUT THERE/S NO REAL COLD AIR ANYWHERE...AS SFC FLOW WLBE INCRSG OFF OF THE RATHER WARM ATLC. AM SEEING PTYPE DIFFS IN GDNCINCREASE BY LT TNGT. WL FAVOR STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING...MARCHING THERA-SN LINE EWD TO SOMEWHERE E OF I-95 BY DAWN. AM NOT REAL CERTAINWHERE IT WL END UP THO...AND HV A FAIRLY WIDE SWATH OF RASN IN GRIDSTO DEPICT THAT UNCERTAINTY.

 

Trix is right, it is the same wording as the overnight AFD.

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950mb freezing line is about 20mi farther southeast from 9z-15z tomorrow vs. the 6z GFS. Still slightly northwest of I-95 by eyeball. 975mb freezing line is somewhere in Canada...but the temp is still probably only 0-1C above freezing.

Edit...ack...still warms above freezing at 950mb tomorrow afternoon.

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it does...it isnt the slow mover the others are..we are done at like 6pm.....qpf now similar to euro

Euro and GFS together should be a cause for concern. The weenie side of me wants to say perhaps they are not picking up on the dynamics quite as well as the NAM. Still, that's interesting that it's like the EURO

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