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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II


stormtracker

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If you're looking at the last GFS run it's just not true. No. MD is closer to .5 than 1, period. Don't wish want you want to see, just see it.

 

For the Frederick area (which he was talking about), he is exactly right.  12Z GFS has that part of MD in the 1.0-1.25 range.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p60&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_060_precip_p60.gif

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DCA:

 

 

WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.6    -2.1    0.16       WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.5    -2.2    0.43        WED 18Z 06-MAR   1.4    -1.9    0.49         THU 00Z 07-MAR   1.6    -3.5    0.21         THU 06Z 07-MAR   0.1    -3.5    0.04         

 

BWI:

 

 

WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.6    -2.8    0.05        WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.7    -3.5    0.39        WED 18Z 06-MAR   1.9    -2.3    0.33       THU 00Z 07-MAR   2.2    -3.7    0.09         THU 06Z 07-MAR   0.4    -3.2    0.03     IAD:
WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.3 -2.8 0.17 WED 12Z 06-MAR 0.9 -3.1 0.48 WED 18Z 06-MAR 0.9 -2.9 0.53 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.2 -4.2 0.46 THU 06Z 07-MAR -0.7 -4.2 0.02  
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Sounding man.  Get us a full workup panel, stat!

GFS soundings through 21z tomorrow are a lot better than I thought they'd be.  Certainly better than 6z's.  Freezing level is at or very close to 950mb for the entire day tomorrow and surface is ~1C.  850s have certainly cooled a couple degrees relative to 6z.  

 

Much more borderline to the east by Annapolis.  

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DCA:

 

 

WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.6    -2.1    0.16       WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.5    -2.2    0.43        WED 18Z 06-MAR   1.4    -1.9    0.49         THU 00Z 07-MAR   1.6    -3.5    0.21         THU 06Z 07-MAR   0.1    -3.5    0.04         

 

BWI:

 

 

WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.6    -2.8    0.05        WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.7    -3.5    0.39        WED 18Z 06-MAR   1.9    -2.3    0.33       THU 00Z 07-MAR   2.2    -3.7    0.09         THU 06Z 07-MAR   0.4    -3.2    0.03     IAD:
WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.3 -2.8 0.17 WED 12Z 06-MAR 0.9 -3.1 0.48 WED 18Z 06-MAR 0.9 -2.9 0.53 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.2 -4.2 0.46 THU 06Z 07-MAR -0.7 -4.2 0.02  

 

Damn, I'm not sure why it messes up my formatting for IAD every time.  Fixed in the quote..... I think.

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I was referring to HGR to FDK specifically....should have mentioned. It is rather clearly in the 1-1.25" until you get about 5-10mi north of FDK.

Nam shows a band near Hagerstown or just NW and a bit of a dryslot over ne md. I'm guessing hgr will do better than fdk and will try to.make it to work tomorrow.

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DCA:

 

 

WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.6    -2.1    0.16       WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.5    -2.2    0.43        WED 18Z 06-MAR   1.4    -1.9    0.49         THU 00Z 07-MAR   1.6    -3.5    0.21         THU 06Z 07-MAR   0.1    -3.5    0.04         

 

BWI:

 

 

WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.6    -2.8    0.05        WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.7    -3.5    0.39        WED 18Z 06-MAR   1.9    -2.3    0.33       THU 00Z 07-MAR   2.2    -3.7    0.09         THU 06Z 07-MAR   0.4    -3.2    0.03     IAD:
WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.3 -2.8 0.17 WED 12Z 06-MAR 0.9 -3.1 0.48 WED 18Z 06-MAR 0.9 -2.9 0.53 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.2 -4.2 0.46 THU 06Z 07-MAR -0.7 -4.2 0.02  

Is there a way to put headins on these charts for those of us who are't used to looking at those products?

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Last 4 of the nam. Nam clearly thinks it's a slower moving system with a more intense ccb/deform. Meet in the middle somewhere? 

 

attachicon.gifnamprecipcomp1.JPG

 

i'd perhaps lean to the nam with profile and the gfs with everything else. the gfs should still model the overall system better i'd think?

 

edit: this is not factoring the EURO at all. which will be 100% correct because it is the man.

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i'd perhaps lean to the nam with profile and the gfs with everything else. the gfs should still model the overall system better i'd think?

 

edit: this is not factoring the EURO at all. which will be 100% correct because it is the man.

why should the GFS better model the overall system right now? its a model that goes out to 384  hours.

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12Z is better than 06Z at least.

 

It is. I think it's just oscillations in how the model calculates the ccb/deform. Track seem like it's welded in our area. Intensity / timing is awful tricky here. 

 

I'm mostly rooting for just getting the temps right. Anything that can go our way for all snow vs rain lunchmeat inside of a snow sandwich is good. Precip amounts are in a pretty good range already. And somebody N of the potomac will get a surprise jackpot. 

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GFS has trimmed precip back in MD each of the last 3 runs.  

I have noticed... not making me feel confident.  It seems to me the GFS and even the RGEM now but to a lesser extent have the dynamics die as the low occludes and then redevelops east.  Its easy to see, the low gets up into southeast VA and the CCB is going good...then as the low stalls, gets vertically stacked, then transfers east, the vv's slack off and the precip pattern becomes spotty and more scattered in bands.  It especially pulls the rug out of that band that is getting into northern MD.  It bothers me because it is plausable and I can see why it is doing that.  The NAM even sees it a bit, but is amped enough to keep the ccb together more up into southern PA.  HUGE difference for the gringe areas.  SREF/NAM would indicate a 8-12" forecast up into southern PA, the GFS would indicate 2-4" for the same area, hard to hedge when the storm is 18 hours away. 

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I honestly don't have much faith in the GFS at all....I'd take a Euro/NAM blend assuming they are close and warm the NAM profiles a bit

yeah it still seems kinda goofy.. but in theory the globals should still have a better picture of the overall storm i'd think but maybe im wrong.

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i'd perhaps lean to the nam with profile and the gfs with everything else. the gfs should still model the overall system better i'd think?

edit: this is not factoring the EURO at all. which will be 100% correct because it is the man.

If gfs is speedy outlier im not sure? 0z euro 6z nam blend?
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