stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Especially in the boundary layer. I do worry that the NAM has tended to run slightly too cold for several events that I can recall. Sigh. Guess i'm back to where I was before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The NAM forecast sounding freezing level at DC is around 250 feet. Believable? That could give ft Reno 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Agree NAM is probably still a bit too wet and I could see surface temps verifying slightly warmer...but we're still talking ~1C difference between the NAM and other guidance. If that 1C is just at the surface (and not above 950), I'm fine with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just south of DC is a 2.5-3" band, of QPF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sigh. Guess i'm back to where I was before. You should be feeling pretty good. Just don't hang out at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sigh. Guess i'm back to where I was before. I said it's something to consider....no two events are identical. I'll do my best to make sure the GFS comes in colder, would that make you feel better ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The NAM forecast sounding freezing level at DC is around 250 feet. Believable? Have to ride the euro at this point. Its changes have been subtle and slow. . Its ensembles have been like a rock. Fortunately it has pretty good profiles last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 You should be feeling pretty good. Just don't hang out at DCA lol. we'll have 10" and dca will measure and inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Thoughts regarding the potential for outages just nw of this mix line? Could be snow sticking to every limb and object in a really thick paste + lots of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I said it's something to consider....no two events are identical. I'll do my best to make sure the GFS comes in colder, would that make you feel better ? You're a pal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol. we'll have 10" and dca will measure and inch. Tony Pann might verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 October 2011 was a particular awful bust in a similarly dynamic and borderline scenario. But, again, that was a CAD scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Starting feel slightly better. I just need the GFS on board. This is a good trend. Hope it holds and not put us in a valley at 18z. GFS is not a short range model. Its more useful at 384 than at this point right? Use short range models from this point out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wait, the NAM has it still snowing at 3am Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 LWX just went 8-14 (highest along BR) counties just east of BR in WS Warning 10-15 West of BR into I-81 corridor/Shenandoah Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wait, the NAM has it still snowing at 3am Thursday? For DCA i think until 6:00 AM thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 LWX just went 8-14 (highest along BR) counties just east of BR in WS Warning 10-15 West of BR into I-81 corridor/Shenandoah Valley 4-7" near BWI just through wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I have no evidence, but given the winds in the low levels, I think the bullseyes are actually favored upslope areas. If I understand what you're saying, the fact we have low level E winds as opposed to NE will push the CCB further west that expected? Btw, the QPF bullseyes I was talking about were the ones apearing east of the fall-line not west. I have no doubt upslope areas will do better QPF and snow wise (orographic lift, elevation). My argument is the CCB itself shouldn't be that far west given the placement of upper features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If I understand what you're saying, the fact we have low level E winds as opposed to NE will push the CCB further west that expected? Btw, the QPF bullseyes I was talking about were the ones apearing east of the fall-line not west. I have no doubt upslope areas will do better QPF and snow wise (orographic lift, elevation). My argument is the CCB itself shouldn't be that far west given the placement of upper features. The storm is in equilibrium. As it strengthens, it moves slowly east. As it strengthens, it brings warm air in off the ocean but the NAM is suggesting that dynmaic processes will be enough to maintain snow on the west and north side of both DC and Baltimore. The BIG storm of 1958 gave slop and finally accumulating snow to downtown DC and Baltimore while York topped 30 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Have to ride the euro at this point. Its changes have been subtle and slow. . Its ensembles have been like a rock. Fortunately it has pretty good profiles last night. NAM has been pretty steady too, Matt. None of us know exactly what this ends up being, but when it is over, I'll be curious to see which model is given the kudos. The NAM has been incredibly steady with this since Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If I understand what you're saying, the fact we have low level E winds as opposed to NE will push the CCB further west that expected? Btw, the QPF bullseyes I was talking about were the ones apearing east of the fall-line not west. I have no doubt upslope areas will do better QPF and snow wise (orographic lift, elevation). My argument is the CCB itself shouldn't be that far west given the placement of upper features. Ah, I thought you were referring to the circles that had been showing up (especially on the GFS) out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The storm is in equilibrium. As it strengthens, it moves slowly east. As it strengthens, it brings warm air in off the ocean but the NAM is suggesting that dynmaic processes will be enough to maintain snow on the west and north side of both DC and Baltimore. The BIG storm of 1958 gave slop and finally accumulating snow to downtown DC and Baltimore while York topped 30 inches. The 1958 storm actually brought 20" to a spot on the hills of NW Baltimore within the city, while the rest of the city and lower elevations got much much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not to beat a dead horse, but there will be some incredible cutoffs with this one. If you're on the SE edge, you could bust way high or way low...... It'll be fun to watch from down here. The DC crowd will be bipolar depending on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Updated morning AFD from LWX seems to look better for the I-95 crowd TNGT DYNAMIC PROCESSES FM THE CYCLONE TAKE OVER...INCL AN INCRSGLYSTRONG /60-70 KT/ COLD CONVEYOR BELT. THE SFC LOW WL BE PASSING EWDSOMEWHERE NEAR THE NC/VA BRDR...PLACING CWFA IN THE AREA OF BESTLIFT AND MSTR INFLUX. SFC TEMPS REMAIN PESKY THO. SHUD HV COOLING OFTHE COLUMN...BUT THERE/S NO REAL COLD AIR ANYWHERE...AS SFC FLOW WLBE INCRSG OFF OF THE RATHER WARM ATLC. AM SEEING PTYPE DIFFS IN GDNCINCREASE BY LT TNGT. WL FAVOR STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING...MARCHING THERA-SN LINE EWD TO SOMEWHERE E OF I-95 BY DAWN. AM NOT REAL CERTAINWHERE IT WL END UP THO...AND HV A FAIRLY WIDE SWATH OF RASN IN GRIDSTO DEPICT THAT UNCERTAINTY.IN THE END...IT/LL BE THE POSITION OF THAT TRANSITION WHICHDETERMINES SNFL ACCUMS. AM COMFY THAT SGFNT SNW WL MAKE IT E OF THEBLURDG BTWN MIDNGT AND DAWN. CONCERNED ABOUT THE RA/SN LINE...AM MUCHLESS CERTAIN OF THE END RESULT IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR. SNOW WL BEWET...WITH RATHER LOW SLR /LESS THAN 10-1/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 that's the same wording from earlier this morning. don't see how it's better for i-95. I didn't see that in the 3am AFD. That is more favorable wording. Maybe I overlooked it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The storm is in equilibrium. As it strengthens, it moves slowly east. As it strengthens, it brings warm air in off the ocean but the NAM is suggesting that dynmaic processes will be enough to maintain snow on the west and north side of both DC and Baltimore. The BIG storm of 1958 gave slop and finally accumulating snow to downtown DC and Baltimore while York topped 30 inches. this still doesn't answer my question tho. It has nothing to do with whether its falling as rain or snow. My question is why is the CCB placed so far west on the NAM (look at sim radar)... its over the blue ridge. With a storm track like this, why is that the case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I keep seeing these maps, which have barely shown any mixing ever. Have these verified in the past? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What site can I find this map on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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