WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 950mb freezing line is about 20mi farther southeast from 9z-15z tomorrow vs. the 6z GFS. Still slightly northwest of I-95 by eyeball. 975mb freezing line is somewhere in Canada...but the temp is still probably only 0-1C above freezing. Edit...ack...still warms above freezing at 950mb tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 So when does everyone think the Warnings will be put up for Fairfax and DC? Probably before noon, especially if the GFS hops on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS through 27 is seriously juicy. Position of low looks about identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 gfs just seems to cr@p out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS does not seem to be as much as impressed with the CCB as the NAM is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 slightly S/E at 36. DC should love this so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 About 1.5" QPF per 12z GFS for DC and N/W suburbs, 2" in the blue ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbes9 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 QPFs are still 1.5-1.75 range for DC and central VA. Not as juicy as the NAM but was it ever going to be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 it does...it isnt the slow mover the others are..we are done at like 6pm.....qpf now similar to euro Euro and GFS together should be a cause for concern. The weenie side of me wants to say perhaps they are not picking up on the dynamics quite as well as the NAM. Still, that's interesting that it's like the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS has trimmed precip back in MD each of the last 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 More realistic qpf. But the position should be better for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 About 1.5" QPF per 12z GFS for DC and N/W suburbs, 2" in the blue ridge. Substantially less around Baltimore, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Is it like euro regarding speed or just qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 it does...it isnt the slow mover the others are..we are done at like 6pm.....qpf now similar to euro The GFS thinks the Potomac River is a block. Look at the total QPF maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro and GFS together should be a cause for concern. The weenie side of me wants to say perhaps they are not picking up on the dynamics quite as well as the NAM. Still, that's interesting that it's like the EURO Nothing is giving us less than 1.25-1.5" now though. I think temps are the laser focus. GFS crept better but not namish. At least it doesn't look like it's warmer than 6z. that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nothing is giving us less than 1.25-1.5" now though. I think temps are the laser focus. GFS crept better but not namish. At least it doesn't look like it's warmer than 6z. that's good. It seems the problem is the speed and the CCB... NAM develops one much better and stronger than the GFS and slows down... GFS naso much and speeds away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro and GFS together should be a cause for concern. The weenie side of me wants to say perhaps they are not picking up on the dynamics quite as well as the NAM. Still, that's interesting that it's like the EURO Are we complaining about 1.5" of liquid? And we're 12 hours away from the event, I'm not so sure the GFS is all that important right now. I'll trade some qpf for better temps 10/10 times, we'd be losing it on rain anyways. EDIT: That's borderline banter by me, so I'll add that this run helped in the temp department, which is what I care most about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Temps should be the concern for the DC/95 area and in that regard, this run is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 1-1.25" for Northern MD. I'll take it happily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12Z and 6Z through 48: Looks better to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS has only 1/3rd the precip of the NAM for northeastern MD and about 1/2 the precip for central MD. That's more than just the NAM's wet bias at play. GFS is just faster and doesn't develop the deform zone as intensely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS has only 1/3rd the precip of the NAM for northeastern MD and about 1/2 the precip for central MD. That's more than just the NAM's wet bias at play. GFS is just faster and doesn't develop the deform zone as intensely. Yeah, they'd be very different storms for DC and BWI as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS has only 1/3rd the precip of the NAM for northeastern MD and about 1/2 the precip for central MD. That's more than just the NAM's wet bias at play. GFS is just faster and doesn't develop the deform zone as intensely. Sounding man. Get us a full workup panel, stat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 its actually wetter in Leesburg for whatever reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 1-1.25" for Northern MD. I'll take it happily. If you're looking at the last GFS run it's just not true. No. MD is closer to .5 than 1, period. Don't wish want you want to see, just see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS has only 1/3rd the precip of the NAM for northeastern MD and about 1/2 the precip for central MD. That's more than just the NAM's wet bias at play. GFS is just faster and doesn't develop the deform zone as intensely. Yea, simply moved out quicker at lower intensity. I think the only hedge is cautiously in the middle w/ the nam for now and see what the euro does. iirc- the precip axis almost always ends up further north with these setups. I've watched enough radar loops during nowcast time to know that I'm just not making that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If you're looking at the last GFS run it's just not true. No. MD is closer to .5 than 1, period. Don't wish want you want to see, just see it. Are you using your trained eye to look past the maps on NCEP to the "true maps"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Soundings near DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Are you using your trained eye to look past the maps on NCEP to the "true maps"? I am not. Touche. But still doesn't look close to 1.25 to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If you're looking at the last GFS run it's just not true. No. MD is closer to .5 than 1, period. Don't wish want you want to see, just see it. I was referring to HGR to FDK specifically....should have mentioned. It is rather clearly in the 1-1.25" until you get about 5-10mi north of FDK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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