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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II


stormtracker

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Agree NAM is probably still a bit too wet and I could see surface temps verifying slightly warmer...but we're still talking ~1C difference between the NAM and other guidance.  If that 1C is just at the surface (and not above 950), I'm fine with it.  

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Starting feel slightly better.  I just need the GFS on board.  This is a good trend.  Hope it holds and not put us in a valley at 18z.

GFS is not a short range model. Its more useful at 384 than at this point right? Use short range models from this point out.

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I have no evidence, but given the winds in the low levels, I think the bullseyes are actually favored upslope areas.

If I understand what you're saying, the fact we have low level E winds as opposed to NE will push the CCB further west that expected? Btw, the QPF bullseyes I was talking about were the ones apearing east of the fall-line not west. I have no doubt upslope areas will do better QPF and snow wise (orographic lift, elevation). My argument is the CCB itself shouldn't be that far west given the placement of upper features.

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If I understand what you're saying, the fact we have low level E winds as opposed to NE will push the CCB further west that expected? Btw, the QPF bullseyes I was talking about were the ones apearing east of the fall-line not west. I have no doubt upslope areas will do better QPF and snow wise (orographic lift, elevation). My argument is the CCB itself shouldn't be that far west given the placement of upper features.

The storm is in equilibrium. As it strengthens, it moves slowly east. As it strengthens, it brings warm air in off the ocean

but the NAM is suggesting that dynmaic processes will be enough to maintain snow on the west and north side of both DC and Baltimore.

The BIG storm of 1958 gave slop and finally accumulating snow to downtown DC and Baltimore while York topped 30 inches.

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Have to ride the euro at this point. Its changes have been subtle and slow. . Its ensembles have been like a rock. Fortunately it has pretty good profiles last night.

NAM has been pretty steady too, Matt.  None of us know exactly what this ends up being, but when it is over, I'll be curious to see which model is given the kudos.  

 

The NAM has been incredibly steady with this since Sunday morning.

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If I understand what you're saying, the fact we have low level E winds as opposed to NE will push the CCB further west that expected? Btw, the QPF bullseyes I was talking about were the ones apearing east of the fall-line not west. I have no doubt upslope areas will do better QPF and snow wise (orographic lift, elevation). My argument is the CCB itself shouldn't be that far west given the placement of upper features.

 

Ah, I thought you were referring to the circles that had been showing up (especially on the GFS) out west.   

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The storm is in equilibrium. As it strengthens, it moves slowly east. As it strengthens, it brings warm air in off the ocean

but the NAM is suggesting that dynmaic processes will be enough to maintain snow on the west and north side of both DC and Baltimore.

The BIG storm of 1958 gave slop and finally accumulating snow to downtown DC and Baltimore while York topped 30 inches.

The 1958 storm actually brought 20" to a spot on the hills of NW Baltimore within the city, while the rest of the city and lower elevations got much much less.

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Updated morning AFD from LWX seems to look better for the I-95 crowd

 

TNGT DYNAMIC PROCESSES FM THE CYCLONE TAKE OVER...INCL AN INCRSGLYSTRONG /60-70 KT/ COLD CONVEYOR BELT. THE SFC LOW WL BE PASSING EWDSOMEWHERE NEAR THE NC/VA BRDR...PLACING CWFA IN THE AREA OF BESTLIFT AND MSTR INFLUX. SFC TEMPS REMAIN PESKY THO. SHUD HV COOLING OFTHE COLUMN...BUT THERE/S NO REAL COLD AIR ANYWHERE...AS SFC FLOW WLBE INCRSG OFF OF THE RATHER WARM ATLC. AM SEEING PTYPE DIFFS IN GDNCINCREASE BY LT TNGT. WL FAVOR STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING...MARCHING THERA-SN LINE EWD TO SOMEWHERE E OF I-95 BY DAWN. AM NOT REAL CERTAINWHERE IT WL END UP THO...AND HV A FAIRLY WIDE SWATH OF RASN IN GRIDSTO DEPICT THAT UNCERTAINTY.IN THE END...IT/LL BE THE POSITION OF THAT TRANSITION WHICHDETERMINES SNFL ACCUMS. AM COMFY THAT SGFNT SNW WL MAKE IT E OF THEBLURDG BTWN MIDNGT AND DAWN. CONCERNED ABOUT THE RA/SN LINE...AM MUCHLESS CERTAIN OF THE END RESULT IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR. SNOW WL BEWET...WITH RATHER LOW SLR /LESS THAN 10-1/.
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The storm is in equilibrium. As it strengthens, it moves slowly east. As it strengthens, it brings warm air in off the ocean

but the NAM is suggesting that dynmaic processes will be enough to maintain snow on the west and north side of both DC and Baltimore.

The BIG storm of 1958 gave slop and finally accumulating snow to downtown DC and Baltimore while York topped 30 inches.

 

this still doesn't answer my question tho. It has nothing to do with whether its falling as rain or snow. My question is why is the CCB placed so far west on the NAM (look at sim radar)... its over the blue ridge. With a storm track like this, why is that the case?

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