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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II


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950mb freezing line is about 20mi farther southeast from 9z-15z tomorrow vs. the 6z GFS. Still slightly northwest of I-95 by eyeball. 975mb freezing line is somewhere in Canada...but the temp is still probably only 0-1C above freezing.

Edit...ack...still warms above freezing at 950mb tomorrow afternoon.

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it does...it isnt the slow mover the others are..we are done at like 6pm.....qpf now similar to euro

Euro and GFS together should be a cause for concern. The weenie side of me wants to say perhaps they are not picking up on the dynamics quite as well as the NAM. Still, that's interesting that it's like the EURO

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Euro and GFS together should be a cause for concern. The weenie side of me wants to say perhaps they are not picking up on the dynamics quite as well as the NAM. Still, that's interesting that it's like the EURO

 

Nothing is giving us less than 1.25-1.5" now though. I think temps are the laser focus. GFS crept better but not namish. At least it doesn't look like it's warmer than 6z. that's good. 

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Nothing is giving us less than 1.25-1.5" now though. I think temps are the laser focus. GFS crept better but not namish. At least it doesn't look like it's warmer than 6z. that's good. 

 

It seems the problem is the speed and the CCB... NAM develops one much better and stronger than the GFS and slows down... GFS naso much and speeds away

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Euro and GFS together should be a cause for concern. The weenie side of me wants to say perhaps they are not picking up on the dynamics quite as well as the NAM. Still, that's interesting that it's like the EURO

 

Are we complaining about 1.5" of liquid?  And we're 12 hours away from the event, I'm not so sure the GFS is all that important right now.  

 

I'll trade some qpf for better temps 10/10 times, we'd be losing it on rain anyways.

 

EDIT: That's borderline banter by me, so I'll add that this run helped in the temp department, which is what I care most about.  

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GFS has only 1/3rd the precip of the NAM for northeastern MD and about 1/2 the precip for central MD.  That's more than just the NAM's wet bias at play.  GFS is just faster and doesn't develop the deform zone as intensely.  

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GFS has only 1/3rd the precip of the NAM for northeastern MD and about 1/2 the precip for central MD.  That's more than just the NAM's wet bias at play.  GFS is just faster and doesn't develop the deform zone as intensely.  

 

Yea, simply moved out quicker at lower intensity. I think the only hedge is cautiously in the middle w/ the nam for now and see what the euro does. 

 

iirc- the precip axis almost always ends up further north with these setups. I've watched enough radar loops during nowcast time to know that I'm just not making that up. 

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If you're looking at the last GFS run it's just not true. No. MD is closer to .5 than 1, period. Don't wish want you want to see, just see it.

 

I was referring to HGR to FDK specifically....should have mentioned.  It is rather clearly in the 1-1.25" until you get about 5-10mi north of FDK.

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