mappy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yes, this would be when the nam is best. Mesoscale features defined better than globals. i think you have to weigh the fact a model like the NAM has higher resolution (spatially and vertically) vs. some of its known biases....maybe don't trust its QPF but i'd definitely consider its thermal profiles NAM and GFS were within 1C or so anyway below 850mb. We're almost at the "noise" level as it is. I'd certainly like to see the GFS move a little colder as well, but the Euro was cold (at 850mb at least) and when you're within ~18-24 hours of precip start I wouldn't be discounting the NAM "because it's the NAM". Thanks guys Sigh Oh bite me It's a legitimate question. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT per NAM 0.0 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 and Loudoun already has a warning If the GFS is even close to the NAM DC gets a warning shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM has the 975mb 0C back to the big cities by 22z. So if there's any mixing (and I don't think there's much if any for the big cities on the NAM), it's in a 16-21z window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think it's important to note that the gfs is the warmest now of the important models. SR stuff like the nam / sref's look better along with the other globals. If this isn't encouraging and people find reasons to complain then I don't know what to say. Yes, it can rain tomorrow. Odd's have decreased this morning. They're still there but less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM has the 975mb 0C back to the big cities by 22z. So if there's any mixing (and I don't think there's much if any for the big cities on the NAM), it's in a 16-21z window. i think this is a decent scenario...precip is pretty heavy when things are at their warmest (although it still looks like a snow sounding for most of the DC metro)..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Cool, thanks for calling me dumb. I won't ask again.When have you said the NAM is never worth looking at? Holy hell people are sensitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think it's important to note that the gfs is the warmest now of the important models. SR stuff like the nam / sref's look better along with the other globals. If this isn't encouraging and people find reasons to complain then I don't know what to say. Yes, it can rain tomorrow. Odd's have decreased this morning. They're still there but less. You got to like the fact that all the higher resolution models (NAM, Euro, SREFs, etc...) are predominantely (if not all) snow for the big cities and points N/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Through 39: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 given the 500 and 700 low placement on the NAM, I'm quite surprised how far west it pushes the CCB. The way QPF is showing up in these bullseyes in the 6hr panels (like the GFS) makes me suspect there's some convective feedback issues going on. That being said, the 12z nam seems to have a much more realistic evolution on radar so far than any of the previous runs since 12Z yesterday when these weird anomolies started to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM has the 975mb 0C back to the big cities by 22z. So if there's any mixing (and I don't think there's much if any for the big cities on the NAM), it's in a 16-21z window. Soundings are up on Twisterdata. They look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is an exceptional run at this range. We're almost done looking at models. Everyone should be happy. If anyone was expecting a cold smoke shellacking I suppose they could still complain because they are insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 <p>Still putting down a good amount of precip in central MD at 03z Thursday, long duration event at least.</p> <p> </p> <p>Edit: Can the 45hr panel be right? Are we still getting dumped on Thursday AM?</p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 given the 500 and 700 low placement on the NAM, I'm quite surprised how far west it pushes the CCB. The way QPF is showing up in these bullseyes in the 6hr panels (like the GFS) makes me suspect there's some convective feedback issues going on. That being said, the 12z nam seems to have a much more realistic evolution on radar so far than any of the previous runs since 12Z yesterday when these weird anomolies started to show up. I have no evidence, but given the winds in the low levels, I think the bullseyes are actually favored upslope areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If the GFS is even close to the NAM DC gets a warning shortly. If I was forecasting this I'd want to definitely see what the GFS has to say. I think the problem is once you issue that warning, there's no going back. Seems like there's been some flip flopping between runs lately. I'd want to see the GFS, Euro, and then maybe even the next NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Soundings are up on Twisterdata. They look good. agreed, all snow soundings (at least at discrete 3-hour points ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You got to like the fact that all the higher resolution models (NAM, Euro, SREFs, etc...) are predominantely (if not all) snow for the big cities and points N/W. Yes, I'm super stoked with this run. Winchester has been getting demolished for like 100 runs now. We've been flirting with peril near the cities. This was a very important run irt temps. There is quite a bit of growing support for the cities to not lose too much to rain. I'm going to have a hard time concentrating on anything outside of weather today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Geez...NAM just hangs back a piece of the deform zone over MD and wrings it out past midnight tomorrow. Purples for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Do we have NAM QPF's yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The NAM has a wet and cold bias. This is not just anecdotal. It is verified. Doesn't mean it will be wrong but we have seen it bust badly on temps at this range many times. I would absolutely take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I have no evidence, but given the winds in the low levels, I think the bullseyes are actually favored upslope areas. The front hills and br are going to maximize for sure. Orographic influence will wring like a sponge. Parr's in MD is a great spot too. I worry about fdk being in a bit of a shadow. They can lose out with e-ene flow. Hopefully dynamics say the heck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Soundings at various times near DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 agreed, all snow soundings (at least at discrete 3-hour points ) Starting feel slightly better. I just need the GFS on board. This is a good trend. Hope it holds and not put us in a valley at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yes, I'm super stoked with this run. Winchester has been getting demolished for like 100 runs now. We've been flirting with peril near the cities. This was a very important run irt temps. There is quite a bit of growing support for the cities to not lose too much to rain. I'm going to have a hard time concentrating on anything outside of weather today. You guys to the east are in it as much as we are to the west. At least we all get 2.0 qpf. The rates are going to be insane. That should overcome a 34-35 2m temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i think you have to weigh the fact a model like the NAM has higher resolution (spatially and vertically) vs. some of its known biases....maybe don't trust its QPF but i'd definitely consider its thermal profiles Especially in the boundary layer. I do worry that the NAM has tended to run slightly too cold for several events that I can recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Soundings are up on Twisterdata. They look good. agreed, all snow soundings (at least at discrete 3-hour points ) Holy cow...they look very good for DC. Even better than the maps would have me believe. Looks like 0z from last night and 18z from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The NAM has a wet and cold bias. This is not just anecdotal. It is verified. Doesn't mean it will be wrong but we have seen it bust badly on temps at this range many times. I would absolutely take it with a grain of salt. It does but usually when it's an outlier it shows it's face. Nam seems to do pretty well close in w/ bigger systems irt to temps. Precip could be too high of course but there's plenty of support saying it's not high by an exceptional amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Soundings at various times near DCA NAM 06z.png NAM 09z.png NAM 15z.png NAM 18z.png Wow, those are pretty good. Better than I expected. I'd like to see the GFS/Euro look like this tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Especially in the boundary layer. I do worry that the NAM has tended to run slightly too cold for several events that I can recall. October 2011 was a particular awful bust in a similarly dynamic and borderline scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Especially in the boundary layer. I do worry that the NAM has tended to run slightly too cold for several events that I can recall. The NAM forecast sounding freezing level at DC is around 250 feet. Believable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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