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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II


stormtracker

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given the 500 and 700 low placement on the NAM, I'm quite surprised how far west it pushes the CCB. The way QPF is showing up in these bullseyes in the 6hr panels (like the GFS) makes me suspect there's some convective feedback issues going on. That being said, the 12z nam seems to have a much more realistic evolution on radar so far than any of the previous runs since 12Z yesterday when these weird anomolies started to show up.

 

I have no evidence, but given the winds in the low levels, I think the bullseyes are actually favored upslope areas.

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If the GFS is even close to the NAM DC gets a warning shortly.

 

If I was forecasting this I'd want to definitely see what the GFS has to say.  I think the problem is once you issue that warning, there's no going back.  Seems like there's been some flip flopping between runs lately.  I'd want to see the GFS, Euro, and then maybe even the next NAM.

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You got to like the fact that all the higher resolution models (NAM, Euro, SREFs, etc...) are predominantely (if not all) snow for the big cities and points N/W.  

 

Yes, I'm super stoked with this run. Winchester has been getting demolished for like 100 runs now. We've been flirting with peril near the cities. This was a very important run irt temps. There is quite a bit of growing support for the cities to not lose too much to rain. I'm going to have a hard time concentrating on anything outside of weather today. 

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I have no evidence, but given the winds in the low levels, I think the bullseyes are actually favored upslope areas.

 

The front hills and br are going to maximize for sure. Orographic influence will wring like a sponge. Parr's in MD is a great spot too. I worry about fdk being in a bit of a shadow. They can lose out with e-ene flow. Hopefully dynamics say the heck with that.

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Yes, I'm super stoked with this run. Winchester has been getting demolished for like 100 runs now. We've been flirting with peril near the cities. This was a very important run irt temps. There is quite a bit of growing support for the cities to not lose too much to rain. I'm going to have a hard time concentrating on anything outside of weather today. 

 

You guys to the east are in it as much as we are to the west. At least we all get 2.0 qpf. The rates are going to be insane. That should overcome a 34-35 2m temp.

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i think you have to weigh the fact a model like the NAM has higher resolution (spatially and vertically) vs. some of its known biases....maybe don't trust its QPF but i'd definitely consider its thermal profiles 

Especially in the boundary layer.    I do worry that the NAM has tended to run slightly too cold for several events that I can recall.

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Soundings are up on Twisterdata.  They look good.

 

 

agreed, all snow soundings (at least at discrete 3-hour points :) ) 

Holy cow...they look very good for DC.  Even better than the maps would have me believe.  Looks like 0z from last night and 18z from yesterday.  

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The NAM has a wet and cold bias. This is not just anecdotal. It is verified. Doesn't mean it will be wrong but we have seen it bust badly on temps at this range many times. I would absolutely take it with a grain of salt.

 

It does but usually when it's an outlier it shows it's face. Nam seems to do pretty well close in w/ bigger systems irt to temps. Precip could be too high of course but there's plenty of support saying it's not high by an exceptional amount. 

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Agree NAM is probably still a bit too wet and I could see surface temps verifying slightly warmer...but we're still talking ~1C difference between the NAM and other guidance.  If that 1C is just at the surface (and not above 950), I'm fine with it.  

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Starting feel slightly better.  I just need the GFS on board.  This is a good trend.  Hope it holds and not put us in a valley at 18z.

GFS is not a short range model. Its more useful at 384 than at this point right? Use short range models from this point out.

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