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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II


stormtracker

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But it's the NAM, can we actually trust it?

if the NAM cant be trusted 12 hours before the storm starts......whats the purpose of it? I know its wheel house is 3 hours after the storm is over but maybe this one time we can trust it

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But it's the NAM, can we actually trust it?

 

i think you have to weigh the fact a model like the NAM has higher resolution (spatially and vertically) vs. some of its known biases....maybe don't trust its QPF but i'd definitely consider its thermal profiles 

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But it's the NAM, can we actually trust it?

NAM and GFS were within 1C or so anyway below 850mb.  We're almost at the "noise" level as it is.  I'd certainly like to see the GFS move a little colder as well, but the Euro was cold (at 850mb at least) and when  you're within ~18-24 hours of precip start I wouldn't be discounting the NAM "because it's the NAM".  

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We're not going to know for sure until it starts coming down.  I'd hate to be the guys having to make a forecast or deciding on a warning for DC and NOVA.

lol..are you kidding? A warning for NOVA is a guarantee....NOVA includes Fairfax and Loudoun Counties

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i mean, this is great and all, but NAM usually has a cold bias if I remember correctly?

 

it seems to run a little cold...but it's still at this point a warm outlier compared to all the other globals other than the GFS

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if the NAM cant be trusted 12 hours before the storm starts......whats the purpose of it? I know its wheel house is 3 hours after the storm is over but maybe this one time we can trust it

Conversation has poisoned people. Nothing is nearly as black an white as portrayed here.

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i mean, this is great and all, but NAM usually has a cold bias if I remember correctly?

 

 

I think it overdoes it more in CAD situations, this one is more stratiform air mass.  It's a model though and none should be taken as ground truth

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Yeah and they're also sitting on the edge of a few runs showing a lot of rain and some showing a lot of snow

I think it's unlikely that DC gets less than a 3-6" event (or any range that averages <5" which is warning criteria), so yeah I'd go with a warning.

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Conversation has poisoned people. Nothing is nearly as black an white as portrayed here.

She asked a legitimate question...I knew what she meant.  NAM had some known biases and people piss on it so much, we've forgetten what range it could actually be useful in.  I think most know you can't take a model verbatim.

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