clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS, NAM and SREF all 20 inch storms For basically the Entire Shenandoah Valley. Crazy numbers for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yes, between surface and 950 is a problem but it can be overcome pretty easy with rates. At least imo. I wish I had panels for 950 like 925 but I don't. It can also be overcome with a slightly better storm track. If slp tracks euroish then I can probably delete some morning posts. We're all getting accum snow until you get a good bit e-s. That's a good feeling. And if there are mixing/rain problems tomorrow then we just gotta be patient. once the backside is rippin it's accum snow and great rates. instantweathermaps.com has full CONUS maps of many variables at 1000mb,975,950,925,850, etc... The 6z GFS 950mb map is...ugly. 6z NAM has the freezing line at 950mb right on I-95 all day basically tomorrow and the 975mb temps are very close to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I know alot of you dont like the GGEM. But last nights run basically bullseyes DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 instantweathermaps.com has full CONUS maps of many variables at 1000mb,975,950,925,850, etc... The 6z GFS 950mb map is...ugly. 6z NAM has the freezing line at 950mb right on I-95 all day basically tomorrow and the 975mb temps are very close to freezing. Ah, i use that site once in a while but obviously not enough. I saw the 950's on the 6z gfs. I wish I hadn't. And I won't be going back until we get nam'd in a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What time do we get NAM'd? That now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What time do we get NAM'd? That now? Running now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12z nam coming in a bit cooler on the front end...more aggressive with snow at the beginning for the entire DC metro (after saturation) than 6z....fingers crossed on the dreaded weds am warm push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What time do we get NAM'd? That now? Out to 15 hr on the NCEP site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18hr NAM is a hair better than 24 hr at 6z let's hope that continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18 NAM has a much larger precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 A lot drier at 21 down my way anyhow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUSTINMFOX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM has 850 line running down Woodbridge through 21 hours. Was sitting right on top of DCA the last run same hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM has 850 line running down Woodbridge through 21 hours. Was sitting right on top of DCA the last run same hour. yep, defintely south I think we're gunna do better all the way through <famous last words> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 where are the strong uvv? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is all snow through 13z at least for the big cities and all points N/W (probably even a bit farther south than the cities). Freezing level is at 975 at 13z tomorrow for I-95 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 where are the strong uvv? later knucklehead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is all snow through 13z at least for the big cities and all points N/W (probably even a bit farther south than the cities). Freezing level is at 975 at 13z tomorrow for I-95 or so. everything looks about ~20 miles SE better than 6z which for the DC metro could be pretty significant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is all snow through 13z at least for the big cities and all points N/W (probably even a bit farther south than the cities). Freezing level is at 975 at 13z tomorrow for I-95 or so. Colder, but slightly drier. I think that's a tradeoff that many people right around DC will take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is all snow through 13z at least for the big cities and all points N/W (probably even a bit farther south than the cities). Freezing level is at 975 at 13z tomorrow for I-95 or so. So wait, it would start as snow, even here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is definitely colder in Leesburg. dips below freezing sometime tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 everything looks about ~20 miles SE better than 6z which for the DC metro could be pretty significant... Yessir. Wiggle room for sure. Not a lot or anything. Fall line w can relax a tiny tiny bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 975mb temps JUST edge above freezing for I-95 at 16z tomorrow, still below for N/W burbs. 950s still below freezing. I think the NAM's a wet paste bomb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is all snow through 13z at least for the big cities and all points N/W (probably even a bit farther south than the cities). Freezing level is at 975 at 13z tomorrow for I-95 or so. 950mb backs up right to DC, but doesn't cross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So wait, it would start as snow, even here? Yes, the NAM looks to a brief rain -> snow -> snow/mix/rain (who knows) -> back to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is definitely colder in Leesburg. dips below freezing sometime tonight told ya' http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_027_700_rh_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yes, the NAM looks to a brief rain -> snow -> snow/mix/rain (who knows) -> back to snow and a lot of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So wait, it would start as snow, even here? If the NAM's right, basically yes. Maybe a little sprinkle (and virga) to moisten up the boundary layer to start, but snow for all intents and purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 975mb temps JUST edge above freezing for I-95 at 16z tomorrow, still below for N/W burbs. 950s still below freezing. I think the NAM's a wet paste bomb... 950mb backs up right to DC, but doesn't cross. my thoughts too...good rates when things start to flirt with the 950mb freezing line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 ccb is stuck to the west at 30 hrs but it will move east http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_030_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 here they are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.