chris87 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 But it's the NAM, can we actually trust it? i think you have to weigh the fact a model like the NAM has higher resolution (spatially and vertically) vs. some of its known biases....maybe don't trust its QPF but i'd definitely consider its thermal profiles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 But it's the NAM, can we actually trust it? NAM and GFS were within 1C or so anyway below 850mb. We're almost at the "noise" level as it is. I'd certainly like to see the GFS move a little colder as well, but the Euro was cold (at 850mb at least) and when you're within ~18-24 hours of precip start I wouldn't be discounting the NAM "because it's the NAM". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We're not going to know for sure until it starts coming down. I'd hate to be the guys having to make a forecast or deciding on a warning for DC and NOVA. lol..are you kidding? A warning for NOVA is a guarantee....NOVA includes Fairfax and Loudoun Counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i mean, this is great and all, but NAM usually has a cold bias if I remember correctly? it seems to run a little cold...but it's still at this point a warm outlier compared to all the other globals other than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 But it's the NAM, can we actually trust it? Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 if the NAM cant be trusted 12 hours before the storm starts......whats the purpose of it? I know its wheel house is 3 hours after the storm is over but maybe this one time we can trust it Conversation has poisoned people. Nothing is nearly as black an white as portrayed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i mean, this is great and all, but NAM usually has a cold bias if I remember correctly? I think it overdoes it more in CAD situations, this one is more stratiform air mass. It's a model though and none should be taken as ground truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol..are you kidding? A warning for NOVA is a guarantee....NOVA includes Fairfax and Loudoun Counties Yeah and they're also sitting on the edge of a few runs showing a lot of rain and some showing a lot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sigh It's a legitimate question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i think you have to weigh the fact a model like the NAM has higher resolution (spatially and vertically) vs. some of its known biases....maybe don't trust its QPF but i'd definitely consider its thermal profiles Yes but hasn't the NAM and the GFS basically been the same with the QPF outputs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's a legitimate question. I dunno. People have gone off the dumb end with bashin the nam lately. Kinda silly really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 between 1 and 7 tomorrow, we get more snow than we have seen combined 25 months:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Still dumping at midnight Thursday. 30 hour event on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's a legitimate question. It is but the nam has some history (including recent) here. We're very close in now. If it was the gfs cold and the nam warm I would be more concerned. I think everybody would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah and they're also sitting on the edge of a few runs showing a lot of rain and some showing a lot of snow I think it's unlikely that DC gets less than a 3-6" event (or any range that averages <5" which is warning criteria), so yeah I'd go with a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Conversation has poisoned people. Nothing is nearly as black an white as portrayed here. She asked a legitimate question...I knew what she meant. NAM had some known biases and people piss on it so much, we've forgetten what range it could actually be useful in. I think most know you can't take a model verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol..are you kidding? A warning for NOVA is a guarantee....NOVA includes Fairfax and Loudoun Counties and Loudoun already has a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I dunno. People have gone off the dumb end with bashin the nam lately. Kinda silly really. Oh, ok. See my other reply to you. That's why I'm confused...people piss on the NAM so much, I honestly forgotten the range, if any, it's supposed to be good with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yes, this would be when the nam is best. Mesoscale features defined better than globals. i think you have to weigh the fact a model like the NAM has higher resolution (spatially and vertically) vs. some of its known biases....maybe don't trust its QPF but i'd definitely consider its thermal profiles NAM and GFS were within 1C or so anyway below 850mb. We're almost at the "noise" level as it is. I'd certainly like to see the GFS move a little colder as well, but the Euro was cold (at 850mb at least) and when you're within ~18-24 hours of precip start I wouldn't be discounting the NAM "because it's the NAM". Thanks guys Sigh Oh bite me It's a legitimate question. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT per NAM 0.0 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 and Loudoun already has a warning If the GFS is even close to the NAM DC gets a warning shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM has the 975mb 0C back to the big cities by 22z. So if there's any mixing (and I don't think there's much if any for the big cities on the NAM), it's in a 16-21z window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think it's important to note that the gfs is the warmest now of the important models. SR stuff like the nam / sref's look better along with the other globals. If this isn't encouraging and people find reasons to complain then I don't know what to say. Yes, it can rain tomorrow. Odd's have decreased this morning. They're still there but less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM has the 975mb 0C back to the big cities by 22z. So if there's any mixing (and I don't think there's much if any for the big cities on the NAM), it's in a 16-21z window. i think this is a decent scenario...precip is pretty heavy when things are at their warmest (although it still looks like a snow sounding for most of the DC metro)..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Cool, thanks for calling me dumb. I won't ask again.When have you said the NAM is never worth looking at? Holy hell people are sensitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think it's important to note that the gfs is the warmest now of the important models. SR stuff like the nam / sref's look better along with the other globals. If this isn't encouraging and people find reasons to complain then I don't know what to say. Yes, it can rain tomorrow. Odd's have decreased this morning. They're still there but less. You got to like the fact that all the higher resolution models (NAM, Euro, SREFs, etc...) are predominantely (if not all) snow for the big cities and points N/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Through 39: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 given the 500 and 700 low placement on the NAM, I'm quite surprised how far west it pushes the CCB. The way QPF is showing up in these bullseyes in the 6hr panels (like the GFS) makes me suspect there's some convective feedback issues going on. That being said, the 12z nam seems to have a much more realistic evolution on radar so far than any of the previous runs since 12Z yesterday when these weird anomolies started to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM has the 975mb 0C back to the big cities by 22z. So if there's any mixing (and I don't think there's much if any for the big cities on the NAM), it's in a 16-21z window. Soundings are up on Twisterdata. They look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is an exceptional run at this range. We're almost done looking at models. Everyone should be happy. If anyone was expecting a cold smoke shellacking I suppose they could still complain because they are insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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