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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II


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But it's the NAM, can we actually trust it?

 

i think you have to weigh the fact a model like the NAM has higher resolution (spatially and vertically) vs. some of its known biases....maybe don't trust its QPF but i'd definitely consider its thermal profiles 

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But it's the NAM, can we actually trust it?

NAM and GFS were within 1C or so anyway below 850mb.  We're almost at the "noise" level as it is.  I'd certainly like to see the GFS move a little colder as well, but the Euro was cold (at 850mb at least) and when  you're within ~18-24 hours of precip start I wouldn't be discounting the NAM "because it's the NAM".  

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We're not going to know for sure until it starts coming down.  I'd hate to be the guys having to make a forecast or deciding on a warning for DC and NOVA.

lol..are you kidding? A warning for NOVA is a guarantee....NOVA includes Fairfax and Loudoun Counties

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i mean, this is great and all, but NAM usually has a cold bias if I remember correctly?

 

it seems to run a little cold...but it's still at this point a warm outlier compared to all the other globals other than the GFS

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if the NAM cant be trusted 12 hours before the storm starts......whats the purpose of it? I know its wheel house is 3 hours after the storm is over but maybe this one time we can trust it

Conversation has poisoned people. Nothing is nearly as black an white as portrayed here.

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i mean, this is great and all, but NAM usually has a cold bias if I remember correctly?

 

 

I think it overdoes it more in CAD situations, this one is more stratiform air mass.  It's a model though and none should be taken as ground truth

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Yeah and they're also sitting on the edge of a few runs showing a lot of rain and some showing a lot of snow

I think it's unlikely that DC gets less than a 3-6" event (or any range that averages <5" which is warning criteria), so yeah I'd go with a warning.

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Conversation has poisoned people. Nothing is nearly as black an white as portrayed here.

She asked a legitimate question...I knew what she meant.  NAM had some known biases and people piss on it so much, we've forgetten what range it could actually be useful in.  I think most know you can't take a model verbatim.

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Yes, this would be when the nam is best. Mesoscale features defined better than globals. 

i think you have to weigh the fact a model like the NAM has higher resolution (spatially and vertically) vs. some of its known biases....maybe don't trust its QPF but i'd definitely consider its thermal profiles 

NAM and GFS were within 1C or so anyway below 850mb.  We're almost at the "noise" level as it is.  I'd certainly like to see the GFS move a little colder as well, but the Euro was cold (at 850mb at least) and when  you're within ~18-24 hours of precip start I wouldn't be discounting the NAM "because it's the NAM".  

Thanks guys :)

Sigh

Oh bite me

It's a legitimate question.

Thank you

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I think it's important to note that the gfs is the warmest now of the important models. SR stuff like the nam / sref's look better along with the other globals. If this isn't encouraging and people find reasons to complain then I don't know what to say. Yes, it can rain tomorrow. Odd's have decreased this morning. They're still there but less. 

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NAM has the 975mb 0C back to the big cities by 22z.  So if there's any mixing (and I don't think there's much if any for the big cities on the NAM), it's in a 16-21z window.  

 

i think this is a decent scenario...precip is pretty heavy when things are at their warmest (although it still looks like a snow sounding for most of the DC metro).....

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I think it's important to note that the gfs is the warmest now of the important models. SR stuff like the nam / sref's look better along with the other globals. If this isn't encouraging and people find reasons to complain then I don't know what to say. Yes, it can rain tomorrow. Odd's have decreased this morning. They're still there but less. 

You got to like the fact that all the higher resolution models (NAM, Euro, SREFs, etc...) are predominantely (if not all) snow for the big cities and points N/W.  

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given the 500 and 700 low placement on the NAM, I'm quite surprised how far west it pushes the CCB. The way QPF is showing up in these bullseyes in the 6hr panels (like the GFS) makes me suspect there's some convective feedback issues going on. That being said, the 12z nam seems to have a much more realistic evolution on radar so far than any of the previous runs since 12Z yesterday when these weird anomolies started to show up.

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