mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM has 850 line running down Woodbridge through 21 hours. Was sitting right on top of DCA the last run same hour. yep, defintely south I think we're gunna do better all the way through <famous last words> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 where are the strong uvv? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is all snow through 13z at least for the big cities and all points N/W (probably even a bit farther south than the cities). Freezing level is at 975 at 13z tomorrow for I-95 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 where are the strong uvv? later knucklehead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is all snow through 13z at least for the big cities and all points N/W (probably even a bit farther south than the cities). Freezing level is at 975 at 13z tomorrow for I-95 or so. everything looks about ~20 miles SE better than 6z which for the DC metro could be pretty significant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is all snow through 13z at least for the big cities and all points N/W (probably even a bit farther south than the cities). Freezing level is at 975 at 13z tomorrow for I-95 or so. Colder, but slightly drier. I think that's a tradeoff that many people right around DC will take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is all snow through 13z at least for the big cities and all points N/W (probably even a bit farther south than the cities). Freezing level is at 975 at 13z tomorrow for I-95 or so. So wait, it would start as snow, even here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is definitely colder in Leesburg. dips below freezing sometime tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 everything looks about ~20 miles SE better than 6z which for the DC metro could be pretty significant... Yessir. Wiggle room for sure. Not a lot or anything. Fall line w can relax a tiny tiny bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 975mb temps JUST edge above freezing for I-95 at 16z tomorrow, still below for N/W burbs. 950s still below freezing. I think the NAM's a wet paste bomb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is all snow through 13z at least for the big cities and all points N/W (probably even a bit farther south than the cities). Freezing level is at 975 at 13z tomorrow for I-95 or so. 950mb backs up right to DC, but doesn't cross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So wait, it would start as snow, even here? Yes, the NAM looks to a brief rain -> snow -> snow/mix/rain (who knows) -> back to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is definitely colder in Leesburg. dips below freezing sometime tonight told ya' http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_027_700_rh_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yes, the NAM looks to a brief rain -> snow -> snow/mix/rain (who knows) -> back to snow and a lot of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So wait, it would start as snow, even here? If the NAM's right, basically yes. Maybe a little sprinkle (and virga) to moisten up the boundary layer to start, but snow for all intents and purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 975mb temps JUST edge above freezing for I-95 at 16z tomorrow, still below for N/W burbs. 950s still below freezing. I think the NAM's a wet paste bomb... 950mb backs up right to DC, but doesn't cross. my thoughts too...good rates when things start to flirt with the 950mb freezing line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 here they are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 ccb is stuck to the west at 30 hrs but it will move east http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_030_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is giving us the room we need when the rates are there before the obvious snow as it departs. That window was looking much scarier with 0-6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUSTINMFOX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hour 30 is much better for DMV this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 my thoughts too...good rates when things start to flirt with the 950mb freezing line Good rates equal more quickly cooling of the column which might kick thoughts of rain out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If the NAM's right, basically yes. Maybe a little sprinkle (and virga) to moisten up the boundary layer to start, but snow for all intents and purposes. But it's the NAM, can we actually trust it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 this might be the best run since 2009-10. This should outdo the Commutergedden storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 After 18z the 950mb 0C line starts retreating/expanding S/Eward and the little bubble of 975mb sub-freezing grows a bit. Tomorrow afternoon will be VERY fun if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SIM radar through 30 is just sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 i mean, this is great and all, but NAM usually has a cold bias if I remember correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 But it's the NAM, can we actually trust it? Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure the NAM can be trusted as much as, or more than the GFS and Euro at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 But it's the NAM, can we actually trust it? if the NAM cant be trusted 12 hours before the storm starts......whats the purpose of it? I know its wheel house is 3 hours after the storm is over but maybe this one time we can trust it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 But it's the NAM, can we actually trust it? Yes, this would be when the nam is best. Mesoscale features defined better than globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We're not going to know for sure until it starts coming down. I'd hate to be the guys having to make a forecast or deciding on a warning for DC and NOVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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