hokierulz98 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looking like elevation will be key with this one as low level temps look more and more suspect.Winchester and Harrisonburg are going to get hammered. I could see DC getting 3 - 6 inches but not anymore unless we see a SE trend today on the models today. Hey, at least you guys aren't totally screwed like us in RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 pretty sweet what do they show for BWI? thanks 14" mean with a similar cluster just around there. One outlier at 3" though there unlike IAD with no members under 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 14" mean with a similar cluster just around there. One outlier at 3" though there unlike IAD with no members under 10" thanks and 3" at BWI in a storm like his is always possible just the way it is but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Harrisonburg never gets hammered. Trust me. See February 2003. I think you'll see in the 12"-18" range out there with elevation of around 1300 feet you should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The sref plumes are pretty nuts for Winchester... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 thanks and 3" at BWI in a storm like his is always possible just the way it is but we'll see Check these out. I wanted to get better idea of thermal structure other than a skew. These are from hr 27 (one of the sketchiest imo) from the 6z gfs. Second shade of blue is the freezing line. One the surface panel, 35 degree line runs the interstate/fall line. Surface: 925: 850: I don't things are as bad as some people are saying in our areas. yea, going east gets worse but this is one of the worst periods on the model. It get's better from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 14" mean with a similar cluster just around there. One outlier at 3" though there unlike IAD with no members under 10" Is that the 3z? I see that on the 9z, there are actually two outliers less than three inches, and one at three inches. There's also a crazy outlier at 25 inches. Without the highest and lowest, the mean is a foot. mitch, for future reference, here's the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 925mb stays at or below freezing for I-95 and all points N/W for the duration on the 6z GFS. But below that is above freezing for much of the time. I think we're back to a situation where we're rate-dependent. Good news on that is that the precip is going to be ripping. If the cold 850s of the Euro verify with the kind of rates we probably will have...should be predominantly snow for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Seeing it put that way, especially by you, allows me to exhale just slightly before this next set of runs. It's perilous though. However, I really like the 925 temp structure as the low goes off the coast. You and I are a little more ok than dca/bwi but not nearly as good as those like in mt airy/damascus etc. The thing is, we know the surface isn't going to be freezing for most if not all of the event. That's a given. It's the layer in between 850 and the surface that will make or break us irt to rain. The best thing about looking at the whole structure and not just a sounding gives you an idea of how everything is oriented. on the 6z gfs, the 925 freezing line runs i-95/fall line through all the "scarier" panels and then everything crashes back to easy snow sounding. edit: NINJA'D! by my favorite ex military met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Is that the 3z? I see that on the 9z, there are actually two outliers less than three inches, and one at three inches. There's also a crazy outlier at 25 inches. Without the highest and lowest, the mean is a foot. mitch, for future reference, here's the link. thank you it doesn't surprise me the new SREF would be lower as the 3z was probably 0Z based not 6z or later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 looking at the 6z models and the current conditions across the US off the Unysis site, I think the Canadian Maritime Low is being seen as stronger/holding on longer which is keeping the 5H vort from slowing in the wrong spot in VA simplistic, but in the end it's just a traffic back up hopefully NAM at 6z was just a blip and it goes back to an all snowy solution like 18z and 0z we'll know soon enough I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 thank you it doesn't surprise me the new SREF would be lower as the 3z was probably 0Z based not 6z or later Yeah, 9Z came out... Still doesn't seem bad to me, mean is still 14.5" with the largest cluster still around 16". Taking away the 2 high and 2 lowest outliers still has it in a good spot with 14" still. Still, a closer call then before and as stated before me, very rate dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This clip is from hr 33. Probably the last really scary panel. It's easy to see what's going on @ 925 with the slp being so close. Verbatim, anyone east of i95'ish where the freezing line runs is in for some nervous rainy moments. West of the line isn't out of the woods either because of surface temps so obviously, the higher up and further west the happier you are. Sure would be nice to have the low track verify 25-50 miles south. A lot of these discussions wouldn't be happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What I think we want to see from the 12z runs is a slightly faster progression to get us in the NW quadrant of the storm earlier and associated colder 950-850mb temps. I like hearing the Euro has our 850 temps in the -3 to -4 range. Freezing level at 925mb is dicey. Freezing level at 950mb (especially if the layer below is only ~1C) is very workable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This clip is from hr 33. Probably the last really scary panel. It's easy to see what's going on @ 925 with the slp being so close. Verbatim, anyone east of i95'ish where the freezing line runs is in for some nervous rainy moments. West of the line isn't out of the woods either because of surface temps so obviously, the higher up and further west the happier you are. 925tmphr33.JPG Sure would be nice to have the low track verify 25-50 miles south. A lot of these discussions wouldn't be happening. Bob, isn't our problem really been under 925? models are showing 950 above freezing personally, as much as I want the models to show all snow, it is also time to start looking at surface condition, pressures, dews, winds, and, of course temps in any event, if we get a lot of snow, this will have been a fun storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I have to say, I'm a lot more pessimistic than I ever was for this storm for my area. It sucks, but we knew we could be in this situation from the beginning. You guys out west though should be pretty stoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This clip is from hr 33. Probably the last really scary panel. It's easy to see what's going on @ 925 with the slp being so close. Verbatim, anyone east of i95'ish where the freezing line runs is in for some nervous rainy moments. West of the line isn't out of the woods either because of surface temps so obviously, the higher up and further west the happier you are. 925tmphr33.JPG Sure would be nice to have the low track verify 25-50 miles south. A lot of these discussions wouldn't be happening. At hour 12, the LP is just south of Illinois. That's where I'll be looking for a small shift south. Edit: Referring to the 06z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Bob, isn't our problem really been under 925? models are showing 950 above freezing personally, as much as I want the models to show all snow, it is also time to start looking at surface condition, pressures, dews, winds, and, of course temps in any event, if we get a lot of snow, this will have been a fun storm Yes, between surface and 950 is a problem but it can be overcome pretty easy with rates. At least imo. I wish I had panels for 950 like 925 but I don't. It can also be overcome with a slightly better storm track. If slp tracks euroish then I can probably delete some morning posts. We're all getting accum snow until you get a good bit e-s. That's a good feeling. And if there are mixing/rain problems tomorrow then we just gotta be patient. once the backside is rippin it's accum snow and great rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS, NAM and SREF all 20 inch storms For basically the Entire Shenandoah Valley. Crazy numbers for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yes, between surface and 950 is a problem but it can be overcome pretty easy with rates. At least imo. I wish I had panels for 950 like 925 but I don't. It can also be overcome with a slightly better storm track. If slp tracks euroish then I can probably delete some morning posts. We're all getting accum snow until you get a good bit e-s. That's a good feeling. And if there are mixing/rain problems tomorrow then we just gotta be patient. once the backside is rippin it's accum snow and great rates. instantweathermaps.com has full CONUS maps of many variables at 1000mb,975,950,925,850, etc... The 6z GFS 950mb map is...ugly. 6z NAM has the freezing line at 950mb right on I-95 all day basically tomorrow and the 975mb temps are very close to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I know alot of you dont like the GGEM. But last nights run basically bullseyes DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 instantweathermaps.com has full CONUS maps of many variables at 1000mb,975,950,925,850, etc... The 6z GFS 950mb map is...ugly. 6z NAM has the freezing line at 950mb right on I-95 all day basically tomorrow and the 975mb temps are very close to freezing. Ah, i use that site once in a while but obviously not enough. I saw the 950's on the 6z gfs. I wish I hadn't. And I won't be going back until we get nam'd in a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What time do we get NAM'd? That now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What time do we get NAM'd? That now? Running now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12z nam coming in a bit cooler on the front end...more aggressive with snow at the beginning for the entire DC metro (after saturation) than 6z....fingers crossed on the dreaded weds am warm push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What time do we get NAM'd? That now? Out to 15 hr on the NCEP site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18hr NAM is a hair better than 24 hr at 6z let's hope that continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18 NAM has a much larger precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 A lot drier at 21 down my way anyhow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUSTINMFOX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM has 850 line running down Woodbridge through 21 hours. Was sitting right on top of DCA the last run same hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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